TJ Thompson $$$$$

[Maryc-k]

It’s not the luthiers making the money on these particular guitars. That’s where the source of disdain comes from. Ervin certainly isn’t getting $155k for a guitar and neither is TJ getting $80k plus.

[sinistral]

Originally Posted by Maryc-k

It’s not the luthiers making the money on these particular guitars. That’s where the source of disdain comes from. Ervin certainly isn’t getting $155k for a guitar and neither is TJ getting $80k plus.

I’m pretty sure everyone commenting gets that (although TJ did tell a story at the Fretboard Summit last summer about a client sending him some of the proceeds of a sale of a used guitar, but that’s admittedly highly unusual). It’s not clear that the consignors of these guitars will get those prices either. Frankly, if either guitar sold for half of their respective asking prices, I would consider it impressive.* If and when they do sell, the actual sale prices will only be discoverable through back channels, since they’ll simply be marked “sold” on the websites.

The thing is, a rising tide lifts a a lot of boats if not all boats. If there’s any positive to come out of it’s the recognition of the desirability of guitars from living builders.

* By comparison, Erwin Somogyi’s 500th guitar (“Diospyros”) sold for that guitar’s asking price and it is way more ornate, etc.

[FrankCousins]

Originally Posted by Maryc-k

I never thought I'd see a Brazilian Ryan at this price point again:

https://www.picknparlor.com/acoustic...an-nightingale

And it has been there for months.

I think there is so much more competition now at that price point and Ryan's are very distinctive in design. I recall Kevin once saying he only pushed up his prices to try and shorten his waiting time as it was getting to 3-4 years, yet all it did was seemingly increase demand!

[Deliberate1]

Originally Posted by FrankCousins

I think there is so much more competition now at that price point and Ryan's are very distinctive in design. I recall Kevin once saying he only pushed up his prices to try and shorten his waiting time as it was getting to 3-4 years, yet all it did was seemingly increase demand!

Perhaps his desire to supress demand would be better served by increasing the wait time. Could weed out the folks who are more moved by time than money.

David

[Johnny_Boy]

Originally Posted by Deliberate1

Perhaps his desire to supress demand would be better served by increasing the wait time. Could weed out the folks who are more moved by time than money.

David

Unfortunately this probably won’t work in a long term. That just means people who waited longer to get it at lower price will end up selling at higher price in the used market because there are people who are willing pay much higher price to get the guitar now. The person might love the guitar purchased at $5K but if he/she can turn around and sell it for double, he/she will think twice about keeping it. Again the market supply and demand will normalize the actual price of the product at the end. This was happening to Olson SJ for years and finally Jim just decided to match the price of new guitars at the same level as it is being sold in the secondary market.

In contrast, apparently what you suggested is how Wayne Henderson is doing it though. I’ve heard that he was charging like $5K per guitar (with basic wood) and you could wait up to 10 years to get it (unless you have something he wants and bump you up in the pool. It is a pool apparently not a queue). Of course this makes his pool size extremely big and his used guitar in the markets are being sold at multiple factors of the price he is charging. If it was my business I would do it differently but he said he makes plenty of money and more money won’t bring him more happiness. Which is wise.

[Maryc-k]

Originally Posted by FrankCousins

I think there is so much more competition now at that price point and Ryan's are very distinctive in design. I recall Kevin once saying he only pushed up his prices to try and shorten his waiting time as it was getting to 3-4 years, yet all it did was seemingly increase demand!

That technique used to work when the pool of builders was smaller. Not so much now.

There is some softness in some markets. Lark Street recently had a Braz/Adi Claxton EM for under $9k.

[usb_chord]

Originally Posted by Maryc-k

That technique used to work when the pool of builders was smaller. Not so much now.

There is some softness in some markets. Lark Street recently had a Braz/Adi Claxton EM for under $9k.

That Claxton was in pretty rough shape. Large top crack and it was priced too high to begin with.

[Maryc-k]

Originally Posted by usb_chord

That Claxton was in pretty rough shape. Large top crack and it was priced too high to begin with.

Did you get a chance to play it?

[usb_chord]

Originally Posted by Maryc-k

Did you get a chance to play it?

I didn't, sadly! It sorta seems as though it's still there...? Not completely sure. I've seen photos, though

[Brad Goodman]

There was a very famous Knifemaker at a show-Bob Loveless and a gentleman comes up to him and picks up one of his knives and says -"What is a knife like this worth?" and he says "$50"...

So later on he comes back to him and says here's $50. for the knife and MR. Loveless says to him,The price is $200. and the guy says-but you said it was $50. and he replied "I said it was WORTH $50."

[mcduffnw]

Originally Posted by Brad Goodman

There was a very famous Knifemaker at a show-Bob Loveless and a gentleman comes up to him and picks up one of his knives and says -"What is a knife like this worth?" and he says "$50"...

So later on he comes back to him and says here's $50. for the knife and MR. Loveless says to him,The price is $200. and the guy says-but you said it was $50. and he replied "I said it was WORTH $50."

No respect....no respect I tell ya...I get no respect at all...Ba dump bump tssssss


I could definitely see Wayne Henderson saying the same type of thing about his guitars and their market price. James Olson too. And from the sounds of it, TJ as well.


I am starting to feel/think that the high end "ultra carriage trade" inventory used/vintage/new guitar stores like Dream, TNAG/Carters and the like are trying to push the pricing structures up as much as possible because they know that they have one last shot in the market with us Baby Boomers and Gen X'ers before we age out of it in the next 5 to 10 years, so they are going to try and grab as much of the lucre as they can before we...and it...dries up.

They suspect that the next generations of buyers are not going to "be there" in the market like we Boomers and Gen X'ers...but especially the Boomers who were a huge population swell...were/are because the music those two groups grew up with was so very much centered around the guitar in almost every popular genre, and thus is just not the case with the Millennials, Gen Z, and Gen Alpha.

I think those ultra high end market serving guitar stores can sense a very significant market constriction/deflation is coming in that higher end of the market, so best try to get $$$$$ whilst the gettin is hopefully still good. The true vintage market will no doubt hold fairly well...likely????...due to rarity, collectible/investment factors, and the music surrounding it...bluegrass and old time country and western...is part of such a tightly knit, self regenerating and self sustaining musical and cultural family, but the rest of that market...high end fingerstyle, high end custom shop and luthier, and high end vintage repro does not have nearly as deep of roots and market base to survive on over time at current purchasing volume.

I hope I am very wrong.


duff
Be A Player...Not A Polisher

[alohachris]

Aloha Duff & Friends,

I totally agree with every part of your post & have been saying the same for the last 10 years or so.

Boomers ARE the "Straw That Stirs the Drink" in terms of the popularity of the acoustic guitar (& other acoustic instruments). Period. And we are falling away as players & guitar fans. So guitar demand must fall off as well.

Music & people have changed. Kids generally value online visuals rather than playing quality, luthier-made instruments. They think that acoustic music is a competition they watch, not life changing art & expression. Even the quality & types of their recordings via mp3's are so inferior & compressed sounding when compared even to Boomer's cassettes & records.

People in our generation & AGF fans listen for sound nuance & qualities that elude today's youngsters who are looking for 'likes,' not the skill & art of a Somogy's anymore.

The point is that the demand is dwindling fast for high value instruments - EXCEPT For Collectors - is dying off with our 84 million strong acoustic guitar fans & players (1/3 of us gone already). And the high-end dealers will try to grap every last dollar they can to profit before it's gone. That's why this inflationary trend is yielding discussions like this one.

Certainly, the prices we're talking about now have nothing to do with real players.

And where are the younger luthier/apprentices to grab some knowledge from the aging Boomer's pro luthiers before it's too late? There are no 20 somethings lining up to do that anymore. Look at the demographics for this site as proof.

I have a very close friend who just closed Hawaii & the Pacific Rim' spiffiest guitar shop last month after 40 years. It was once the best by far out here. But the market changed. Ukuleles are still going strong but acoustic guitar sales - a huge drop off - even for production guitars. To me, that shop closing said it all for the fate of near-future acoustic guitar markets, I'm sad to say.

So thanks for pointing out this important demographic factor in your post, Duff, & it's relationship to acoustic guitar marketing trends.

Yeah, they should get whatever the market can bear. Blah! Blah! Blah!

Keep pickin'!

alohachris

[Johnny_Boy]

You know I thought it was the boomers that is causing the spike and it will fizz out soon like you guys mentioned. Then I did some research today and here is what I found out.

GUITAR MARKET GROWTH
I put together this data using the National Association of Music Merchants (NAMM) Global Reports for guitar sales data for the USA. The sales crashed soon after the 2007 banking crisis, but it has been steadily growing again. the guitar market is not shrinking like I supposed. It is actually growing.


(I couldn't get the shipment data for the past 3 years, but I know they went up quite a bit due to COVID-19. In 2020 they did 3 million units of guitars (acoustic + electric) totaling about $1.8 Billon dollars in the US alone)
(Shipment number seems to be not growing as fast as retail value in $ number. So either people are buying more expensive units, or MSRP is going up (but maybe not the street price in same percentage? I am not sure what NAMM means by "Retail Values"), or the $$ is going up due to inflation, and therefore the unit numbers are not growing as fast)

Per Guitar World, the current boom in guitar sales is comparable to the post-Beatles era. In addition, Music Trades editor Brian Majeski said that the growth in sales that the pandemic caused will likely continue in the years to come. For context, the post-Beatles era saw millions of musical instruments sold annually.

IT'S NOT THE BOOMERS
In 2022, In terms of buyer's ages, this report indicated the following about guitar purchase

• The 18-24 age group recorded the highest guitar purchases in 2022, 17.5% of them made purchase.
• The 25-34 age group was second in terms of purchases, 10.6%
• The 35-44 age group registered the third highest guitar purchases, 5.4%
• The 65+ age group recorded the lowest guitar purchases, 2.9%

So it is neither Boomers or the Gen-Xs that are driving the sales. It is mostly younger generation, which is great to see.

GUITAR PLAYERS are 49% FEMALE!
According to the NAMM

• Guitar players are 51% male and 49% female!
• The majority of guitar players (69%) own an acoustic guitar, while 60% own an electric guitar.

This is also great to see that 49% of the players are now female. This is probably where the most of the growth is coming from.

I grew up an era with guitar heroes (99% male) and guitar solos on every song. Since we don't have either, I thought this is the end of the world for the guitar industry soon once us oldies die out. But Taylor Swift and Ed Sheeran must having influence on guitar sales to female.

Overall, I am glad to see our favorite hobby is not dying out. :-), and when these younger kids get old and have more money, I can sell them my expensive guitars ;-).

[roscoe2311]

Originally Posted by alohachris

Music & people have changed. Kids generally value online visuals rather than playing quality, luthier-made instruments. They think that acoustic music is a competition they watch, not life changing art & expression. Even the quality & types of their recordings via mp3's are so inferior & compressed sounding when compared even to Boomer's cassettes & records.

People in our generation & AGF fans listen for sound nuance & qualities that elude today's youngsters who are looking for 'likes,' not the skill & art of a Somogy's anymore.

alohachris

I think this part is quite an over generalization. As a 26 year old, I'm definitely in the minority of people in my age group interested in luthiery. That being said, a large amount of the luthier made instruments today are just completely inaccessible for most people in my generation. It's hard for people to truly appreciate something that is so far out of reach for them.

While I agree that there are some young fingerstyle players online who seem to just want to show off, I have seen many more passionate, expressive, and creative young players too who would surely appreciate the chance to own a luthier made instrument if they could. Some of the more distinguished young artists have been sponsored by some of the well known luthiers (Taran, Greenfield, etc.) and it has only elevated their music. That has been great to see!

It's unfortunate that many amazing players don't have access to such guitars, but I've seen how much work goes into making these beautiful hand made instruments and I understand why the prices are as they are.

[MTguitars]

Originally Posted by Johnny_Boy

You know I thought it was the boomers that is causing the spike and it will fizz out soon like you guys mentioned. Then I did some research today and here is what I found out.

GUITAR MARKET GROWTH
I put together this data using the National Association of Music Merchants (NAMM) Global Reports for guitar sales data for the USA. The sales crashed soon after the 2007 banking crisis, but it has been steadily growing again. the guitar market is not shrinking like I supposed. It is actually growing.


(I couldn't get the shipment data for the past 3 years, but I know they went up quite a bit due to COVID-19. In 2020 they did 3 million units of guitars (acoustic + electric) totaling about $1.8 Billon dollars in the US alone)
(Shipment number seems to be not growing as fast as retail value in $ number. So either people are buying more expensive units, or MSRP is going up (but maybe not the street price in same percentage? I am not sure what NAMM means by "Retail Values"), or the $$ is going up due to inflation, and therefore the unit numbers are not growing as fast)

Per Guitar World, the current boom in guitar sales is comparable to the post-Beatles era. In addition, Music Trades editor Brian Majeski said that the growth in sales that the pandemic caused will likely continue in the years to come. For context, the post-Beatles era saw millions of musical instruments sold annually.

IT'S NOT THE BOOMERS
In 2022, In terms of buyer's ages, this report indicated the following about guitar purchase

• The 18-24 age group recorded the highest guitar purchases in 2022, 17.5% of them made purchase.
• The 25-34 age group was second in terms of purchases, 10.6%
• The 35-44 age group registered the third highest guitar purchases, 5.4%
• The 65+ age group recorded the lowest guitar purchases, 2.9%

So it is neither Boomers or the Gen-Xs that are driving the sales. It is mostly younger generation, which is great to see.

GUITAR PLAYERS are 49% FEMALE!
According to the NAMM

• Guitar players are 51% male and 49% female!
• The majority of guitar players (69%) own an acoustic guitar, while 60% own an electric guitar.

This is also great to see that 49% of the players are now female. This is probably where the most of the growth is coming from.

I grew up an era with guitar heroes (99% male) and guitar solos on every song. Since we don't have either, I thought this is the end of the world for the guitar industry soon once us oldies die out. But Taylor Swift and Ed Sheeran must having influence on guitar sales to female.

Overall, I am glad to see our favorite hobby is not dying out. :-), and when these younger kids get old and have more money, I can sell them my expensive guitars ;-).

Thanks for putting this together. While it is fun to speculate and make assumptions based off of what we all see or perceive, we do not always have all the facts. I am not surprised guitar sales are up. Now, without sales data from Dream (and the like) and luthiers direct sales data we can not know the full story relating to higher end guitars.

FWIW, I began buying guitars at age 40 (now 44) - the same time I started playing. I started with Martin and have since taken to luthier built guitars. I was unaware of what a guitar from high end luthiers cost 10-15 years ago and only able to do research to determine if the prices I have paid are inline with the market. At the end of the day I made offers on my guitars that were all denied by Dream, Luthier's Collection, and TNAG. I bought the guitars anyway after my trial periods. Why? because I could and because the guitars were incredible and moved me to play them.

Anyhow, I buy the best I can afford. I am sure I could travel to shows and find lesser named makers whose guitars move me so. However, I did not have to. I watched every video I could made by the dealers - whose websites and content are often astounding resources - and bought from them.

Enjoy yourselves out there. I am grateful for this community and for music.

Onwards.