COVID-19 (Con’t 2)

[AX17609]

The only other thing I can add to this ongoing data analysis effort is to note that for other countries, the number of days between the first death and the death curve leveling is 26-33 days. [China - 31 days; Italy - 31 days; Spain - 33 days; Germany - 30; Iran - 26 days; Switzerland - 26 days; South Korea - 29 days; Sweden - 32 days.] Just to be clear, the curve I'm talking about is the one for new deaths/day, not total accumulated deaths.

The US is currently at 39 days since the first death and, therefore, represents a clear outlier to the pattern.

Curve leveling is certainly not the result of any kind of build up of "herd immunity". It's the result of assertive social distancing, testing and quarantines of sensitive populations. This begs the question -- once you've flattened the curve, then what do you do? These programs can't be sustained forever.

[jpd]

Local Grocery store announced wear a face mask or you won't get in!

[Cypress Knee]

Originally Posted by Neil K Walk

That being said, aren't the N95 masks made in China?

N95 are American made and FDA approved. The Chinese version is the KN 95, not FDA approved. However, they are very similar in construction. Here is the 3M comparison chart:

https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/...classes-tb.pdf

[flagstaffcharli]

Originally Posted by jpd

Local Grocery store announced wear a face mask or you won't get in!

Good. This ought to be the norm by now.

[David Eastwood]

Never mind the N95s, I'd love to know where, as a simple consumer, I can buy a face mask of any kind.

My wife got the stink-eye from a couple of our Minnesota Nice ladies in the grocery store this morning because she was not wearing a mask.

I've checked dozens of online sources, and they are simply not available anywhere in any reasonable timeframe.

We'll end up fabricating something which will satisfy the busybodies, curtain twitchers and virtue signalers, but many, many people do not have the means to do so. What are they meant to do, especially if it becomes a mandate?

[robj144]

Originally Posted by eatswodo

Never mind the N95s, I'd love to know where, as a simple consumer, I can buy a face mask of any kind.

My wife got the stink-eye from a couple of our Minnesota Nice ladies in the grocery store this morning because she was not wearing a mask.

I've checked dozens of online sources, and they are simply not available anywhere in any reasonable timeframe.

We'll end up fabricating something which will satisfy the busybodies, curtain twitchers and virtue signalers, but many, many people do not have the means to do so. What are they meant to do, especially if it becomes a mandate?

You can just make some on your own... it's easy. And, a lot of people are selling cloth masks on Etsy.

[Peter Wilcox]

Originally Posted by eatswodo

Never mind the N95s, I'd love to know where, as a simple consumer, I can buy a face mask of any kind.What are they meant to do, especially if it becomes a mandate?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ne3-HyGHTDw

45 seconds

[David Eastwood]

Originally Posted by robj144

You can just make some on your own... it's easy. And, a lot of people are selling cloth masks on Etsy.

You miss my point. We certainly can make something which will satisfy other people that we're 'doing the right thing'. There are many, many people who not so able.

And weren't we, just a couple of months ago, being told *not* to wear masks, as it was deemed counter-productive?

[HodgdonExtreme]

Originally Posted by AX17609

This begs the question -- once you've flattened the curve, then what do you do? These programs can't be sustained forever.

Exactly.

Perhaps I used term "herd immunity" wrong. My point is that with or without social distancing, there are natural influences that slow the spread; it can't continue exponentially forever...

For example, SARS2 has an R0 of about 2.5, meaning each infected person infects 2.5 others. That's easy enough to do when few people are sick. But Eventually you reach point where enough people have already gotten it, that each new infection does NOT result in 2.5 more - thus flattening the curve. From my understanding, there are many factors that have this same effect of lowering R0 without social distancing.

I'd still like to hear what "they" think is going to be the end-game. No vaccine was found for SARS1 or MERS, both coronaviruses. For that matter, my understanding is no reliable vaccine has ever been developed for ANY corona virus. Thus, I think it's worth considering concept of none coming to fruition for SARS2 either.

In that case, humanity can either hide in a hole forever, or face the music, and see if they're tall enough to ride this roller coaster. It's certainly not the first time Mother Earth has challenged us, and certainly won't be the last. The only advantage to all the social distancing measures is to make it more likely healthcare resources will be available when it is YOUR turn to ride...

Even with a viable vaccine, which is at an absolute minimum of 1.5 years away - shall we all just hide in our holes til then? If so, everybody should be seriously thanking those that continue going to work, risking exposure and keeping the world somewhat functional, while everybody else hides in their hole - rather than berating or judging them for not being careful and not social distancing enough.

Sorry, didn't intend to rant, but I've seen essentially zero discussion on this - but I'd like to.

[David Eastwood]

Originally Posted by Peter Wilcox

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ne3-HyGHTDw

45 seconds

Jolly good.

I know that, you know that, but there are a ton of folks out there who have no clue, and whose behaviour is being dictated by those who are equally ignorant.

[ManyMartinMan]

Originally Posted by eatswodo

Never mind the N95s, I'd love to know where, as a simple consumer, I can buy a face mask of any kind....

I ordered my first masks on February 10th. I saw the writing on the international walls. Since then I have ordered many times and given out over 350 masks. Ebay has plenty. That said, it may take you a week or two to get them so getting them in the pipeline - before you "need" them is important.

Originally Posted by eatswodo

...We certainly can make something ... There are many, many people who not so able...And weren't we, just a couple of months ago, being told *not* to wear masks, as it was deemed counter-productive?

I don't blame you if you listened to what I consider bad information - anyone and everyone can wear a bandana, buff, scarf...... take an old t-shirt and cut it into strips about 5" wide and tie them around your face. Every doctor and nurse I've ever seen work wears a mask. It it didn't do any good in protecting one from acquiring germs, why would they wear them? I figured early on that if it's good enough for them, it's good enough for me.

Originally Posted by eatswodo

...there are a ton of folks out there who have no clue, and whose behaviour is being dictated by those who are equally ignorant.

I don't follow ignorants over cliffs. I don't model my behavior on what others do. So, just because foolish people are wandering around without a mask, I do my own thing knowing I only answer to me. I've kept a mask under my chin for 5 weeks and have worn it over my pie-hole anytime I was around any density of people. I've worn it everywhere, even on long bicycle rides for over 2 weeks.

Pick your poison.

[ceciltguitar]

https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs...relief-options

The EIDL loan appears to be practically a $10,000 grant:

“This loan advance will provide up to $10,000 of economic relief to businesses that are currently experiencing temporary difficulties.”

There are other SBA assistances and loans available for small businesses, including self employed independent contractors.

For example the Paycheck Protection Program:

“This loan program provides loan forgiveness for retaining employees by temporarily expanding the traditional SBA 7(a) loan program.”

https://home.treasury.gov/system/fil...20Overview.pdf

[BrunoBlack]

Interesting developments reported in the New York Times.

Most New York Coronavirus Cases Came From Europe, Genomes Show

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/s...e-genomes.html

[Otterhound]

Originally Posted by ceciltguitar

https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs...relief-options

The EIDL loan appears to be practically a $10,000 grant:

“This loan advance will provide up to $10,000 of economic relief to businesses that are currently experiencing temporary difficulties.”

There are other SBA assistances and loans available for small businesses, including self employed independent contractors.

For example the Paycheck Protection Program:

“This loan program provides loan forgiveness for retaining employees by temporarily expanding the traditional SBA 7(a) loan program.”

https://home.treasury.gov/system/fil...20Overview.pdf

How long have you been self employed ?

[Peter Wilcox]

Originally Posted by ManyMartinMan

Every doctor and nurse I've ever seen work wears a mask. It it didn't do any good in protecting one from acquiring germs, why would they wear them? I figured early on that if it's good enough for them, it's good enough for me.

They wear (surgical) masks to keep from spreading germs (which is why we need to wear them), not protection to keep from acquiring germs.

Now the ones dealing with covid wear better masks to try to keep from acquiring them.