COVID-19 (Con’t 2)

[TJE]

Originally Posted by robj144

It's actually even worse:

"An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]"

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Yes it is worse and here’s why and you can read this on the CDC website! What’s the reasoning behind this?🤔 Is it possible people WITH covid -19 are dying from other diseases and it’s being considered death by covid-19? Surely not!


Birx says government is classifying all deaths of patients with coronavirus as 'COVID-19' deaths, regardless of cause

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bir...dless-of-cause

[imwjl]

Related to my mentioning our troubles getting masks, this morning there's news that the federal government is seizing some medical supply orders but not yet knowledge of where it's going.

I know it's not exactly same but when 911 occurred my telco related job was essential and now I'm in food supply. In very short order for the earlier incident there were offices set up in our state capitol building getting regular and consistent communication. This has a lot of parallels where we a business look for the right thing to do, and also get instructions but now the organization and finding any consistency is a mess by comparison.

Now we're getting customers mad that we don't have masks and are supposed to. This highest bidder scenario seems very wrong for public health. We should be able to get the masks without it breaking the bank because the grocery stores are a constant stream of people still getting out and close.

[seannx]

Originally Posted by imwjl

Related to my mentioning our troubles getting masks, this morning there's news that the federal government is seizing some medical supply orders but not yet knowledge of where it's going.

I know it's not exactly same but when 911 occurred my telco related job was essential and now I'm in food supply. In very short order for the earlier incident there were offices set up in our state capitol building getting regular and consistent communication. This has a lot of parallels where we a business look for the right thing to do, and also get instructions but now the organization and finding any consistency is a mess by comparison.

Now we're getting customers mad that we don't have masks and are supposed to. This highest bidder scenario seems very wrong for public health. We should be able to get the masks without it breaking the bank because the grocery stores are a constant stream of people still getting out and close.

It does seem that we are seeing unfortunate consequences from our for profit private health care system, along with the inadequacy of public health services, and problems with supply levels, coordination with states, and disbursement on the federal level. Given that the US is the richest and most powerful nation in the world, it’s inability to maintain stockpiles of protective masks, or get them produced quickly by American manufacturers is baffling. And states having to bid against each other, and then finally losing to the federal government drives prices higher and higher. I hope this will result in positive changes for the future. We all know how important our health is, and it needs to be top priority in the US, as well as affordable and available to all.

[Neil K Walk]

Originally Posted by seannx

It does seem that we are seeing unfortunate consequences from our for profit private health care system, along with the inadequacy of public health services, and problems with supply levels, coordination with states, and disbursement on the federal level. Given that the US is the richest and most powerful nation in the world, it’s inability to maintain stockpiles of protective masks, or get them produced quickly by American manufacturers is baffling. And states having to bid against each other, and then finally losing to the federal government drives prices higher and higher. I hope this will result in positive changes for the future. We all know how important our health is, and it needs to be top priority in the US, as well as affordable and available to all.

Here here! In the US medicine is a business first which has been a travesty IMO.

That being said, aren't the N95 masks made in China?

[HodgdonExtreme]

Originally Posted by seannx

It does seem that we are seeing unfortunate consequences from our for profit private health care system, along with the inadequacy of public health services, and problems with supply levels, coordination with states, and disbursement on the federal level. Given that the US is the richest and most powerful nation in the world, it’s inability to maintain stockpiles of protective masks, or get them produced quickly by American manufacturers is baffling. And states having to bid against each other, and then finally losing to the federal government drives prices higher and higher. I hope this will result in positive changes for the future. We all know how important our health is, and it needs to be top priority in the US, as well as affordable and available to all.

I dunno, I see plenty of other countries with non-profit healthcare systems that appear to be struggling just as bad as USA.

Doesn't seem that for-profit health is the common denominator amongst those struggling.

[seannx]

Originally Posted by HodgdonExtreme

I dunno, I see plenty of other countries with non-profit healthcare systems that appear to be struggling just as bad as USA.

Doesn't seem that for-profit health is the common denominator amongst those struggling.

One problem with trying to make your comparison, is that the US is unique for having a for profit private health care system, compared to almost any other developed country. Another consideration is that many of the 3.5 million Americans who recently filed for unemployment have also lost their health insurance at the worst possible time. Everyone in a developed country with universal coverage still has health insurance.

While I personally think there is a place for private health insurance, like my Kaiser supplemental for Medicare, our current for profit system, coupled with an inadequate public health system, makes responding to a crisis like Covid-19 extremely complicated, as we are seeing in the competition for supplies that are driving prices upward.

[AX17609]

Originally Posted by AX17609

All of us who have been data modeling this crisis are going to be horrified by the numbers we'll read tomorrow about the deaths that have occurred in the US today. Covid will exceed heart disease as the US daily average cause of death. We're still below the IHME projections for 4/7/20, but it's still a considerable spike in the data.

As I warned yesterday, the death toll on 4/7 in the US was hugely disappointing. However, in spite of the news, the IHME model moved the predicted date of peak deaths forward from 4/16 to 4/12 and lowered the number of deaths at on the peak day from 3304 to 2212. The model also lowered the total number of deaths from 81766 to 60,415. I don’t understand how this is possible given yesterday’s numbers, but there you have it.

[HodgdonExtreme]

Originally Posted by seannx

One problem with trying to make your comparison, is that the US is unique for having a for profit private health care system, compared to almost any other developed country. Another consideration is that many of the 3.5 million Americans who recently filed for unemployment have also lost their health insurance at the worst possible time. Everyone in a developed country with universal coverage still has health insurance.

While I personally think there is a place for private health insurance, like my Kaiser supplemental for Medicare, our current for profit system, coupled with an inadequate public health system, makes responding to a crisis like Covid-19 extremely complicated, as we are seeing in the competition for supplies that are driving prices upward.

I don't mean to be obtuse, but I still am not following your logic.

In terms of health resources and allocations - every country that wasn't able to instantly quell the outbreak is dealing with shortages and delays - regardless what sort of system they have.

I just don't see any connection whatsoever between public/private health system and success/failure treating the infected, just take a look at total cases per 1 million population, or deaths/1M pop... The USA does not stick out as "bad", relative to what's happening elsewhere.

[imwjl]

Originally Posted by seannx

It does seem that we are seeing unfortunate consequences from our for profit private health care system, along with the inadequacy of public health services, and problems with supply levels, coordination with states, and disbursement on the federal level. Given that the US is the richest and most powerful nation in the world, it’s inability to maintain stockpiles of protective masks, or get them produced quickly by American manufacturers is baffling. And states having to bid against each other, and then finally losing to the federal government drives prices higher and higher. I hope this will result in positive changes for the future. We all know how important our health is, and it needs to be top priority in the US, as well as affordable and available to all.

In this case I was really thinking of how twice in an essential worker job but different times the federal response/communication/guidance/aid were so different.

Being such an info junkie, you are right about health care system issues but I'm recalling all the guidelines, regulations, suggestions and resources within a few weeks of "911", the anthrax scenario right after, and now.

In the earlier time I mention here, in a hurry there was a federal and state staffed office that had guidelines and resources to help. For our industry and among health people I know, early February was an alarm and built concern. We've been on our own except for local public health departments and a consultant. Unlike that earlier time lots of willful and spiteful ignorance have made it even harder to prepare let alone what I said about our latest issue of getting masks.

I confess these are different scenarios but the anthrax thing happened right after the attack. They were and are all incidents that impacted and scared lots of people. Twice being in essential positions - telecom and food - they feel very different.

Edit: My daughter just made me some masks with bandanas folded over a few times around her hair bands. That's the best I can do having to be in the stores at scheduled and unscheduled emergencies. Everyone still goes to our stores. It's pathetic that big and expensive efforts are only getting us a fraction of the masks we should have.

[seannx]

Originally Posted by HodgdonExtreme

I don't mean to be obtuse, but I still am not following your logic.

In terms of health resources and allocations - every country that wasn't able to instantly quell the outbreak is dealing with shortages and delays - regardless what sort of system they have.

I just don't see any connection whatsoever between public/private health system and success/failure treating the infected, just take a look at total cases per 1 million population, or deaths/1M pop... The USA does not stick out as "bad", relative to what's happening elsewhere.

I think it's obvious that the combination of how health care is structured in the US, plus the delay in taking appropriate, responsible action, along with difficulties with the maintenance and distribution of the Federal Stockpile supplies has made a coordinated, effective response unnecessarily complicated and expensive. There is an overwhelming amount of evidence to support this. In a universal health care system, often called socialized medicine is a derogatory way, or one like Medicare - a US social program - the structure and central administration can facilitate a more organized and streamlined response. That has made it possible for the countries with universal health care, like South Korea, which have had more success than the US, to mobilize a response more efficiently. YMMV and I respect your view.

[robj144]

Originally Posted by AX17609

As I warned yesterday, the death toll on 4/7 in the US was hugely disappointing. However, in spite of the news, the IHME model moved the predicted date of peak deaths forward from 4/16 to 4/12 and lowered the number of deaths at on the peak day from 3304 to 2212. The model also lowered the total number of deaths from 81766 to 60,415. I don’t understand how this is possible given yesterday’s numbers, but there you have it.

Well, if you average about 2k dead per day over then next two weeks (over the peak... it'll be more than this and less than this some days, but suppose it averages to 2k), then that's about 30k dead. Up to this point, there's 15k dead and if you assume the tail is the same as the lead up, that's another 15k over 3 to 4 weeks.

So, that's about 60k which seems reasonable now... unless the average is much more than 2k over the next two weeks.

The other thing that worries me slightly is that if people aren't social distancing in other areas outside of the northeast, there might be a second explosion like the northeast and we could have two peaks. Hopefully, this does not happen though.

[MChild62]

Originally Posted by AX17609

As I warned yesterday, the death toll on 4/7 in the US was hugely disappointing. However, in spite of the news, the IHME model moved the predicted date of peak deaths forward from 4/16 to 4/12 and lowered the number of deaths at on the peak day from 3304 to 2212. The model also lowered the total number of deaths from 81766 to 60,415. I don’t understand how this is possible given yesterday’s numbers, but there you have it.

I’m glad I’m not the only one who doesn’t understand their model. I looked at this for the first time yesterday and Italy seemed off the mark even retroactively. Meaning they hadn’t updated the numbers.

Maybe I’m reading their charts wrong but they seem overly optimistic and possibly disconnected from the latest numbers.

[The Watchman]

Regardless of what type of health-care system a country has, it all comes down to money. Other countries have budget issues too.

States have set-up emergency operations centers. The difference this time is the emergency is all over the country, not localized in one state or region. They have also learned not to spend state money (like stocking up supplies or maintaining expertise) when they know the feds will bail them out.

[HodgdonExtreme]

I'm not an actuarian, and there are a lot of nuances to this whole thing that I don't understand - particularly how to forecast the "herd immunity" phenomenon...

But here's my own personal model data - that seems in line with what the real experts are saying.

I've been updating my spreadsheet with daily new cases, which in turn updates total cases.

Aside from one small dip that lasted 2-3 days, you can see that daily new cases is highly linear, and very equal slope both before and after "the dip". Note that the graph is based on real data ONLY up to April 8. The rest of the graph is forecasted.



Using the equation of the linear "New Cases Today" graph, I plugged that into the future days of "Total Cases", to forecast into the future. Again, note that data is actual numbers until TODAY, everything afterwards is based on the forecast:



Projected death: I took total cases, by day, and tried different multipliers until I found one that matched real death numbers SO FAR. That number ended up being 3%. So, assuming that 3% of total cases result in death, here my projected death forecast. Note these are ALL calculated numbers and NOT actual. However, you can compare my numbers to real ones and see that my calculation works well - at least up until today. Who knows what future brings?



I repeat, I'm not an expert in the field, just somebody that internalizes things their own way, by working through the numbers themself. My model provides NO means of slowing this thing down - which is clearly incorrect... The whole "herd immunity" thing and all. But, we're a long ways away from that phenomenon kicking in, so this ~2 month projection is probably not that far off.

[robj144]

Originally Posted by HodgdonExtreme

I'm not an actuarian, and there are a lot of nuances to this whole thing that I don't understand - particularly how to forecast the "herd immunity" phenomenon...

But here's my own personal model data - that seems in line with what the real experts are saying.

I've been updating my spreadsheet with daily new cases, which in turn updates total cases.

Aside from one small dip that lasted 2-3 days, you can see that daily new cases is highly linear, and very equal slope both before and after "the dip". Note that the graph is based on real data ONLY up to April 8. The rest of the graph is forecasted.



Using the equation of the linear "New Cases Today" graph, I plugged that into the future days of "Total Cases", to forecast into the future. Again, note that data is actual numbers until TODAY, everything afterwards is based on the forecast:



Projected death: I took total cases, by day, and tried different multipliers until I found one that matched real death numbers SO FAR. That number ended up being 3%. So, assuming that 3% of total cases result in death, here my projected death forecast. Note these are ALL calculated numbers and NOT actual. However, you can compare my numbers to real ones and see that my calculation works well - at least up until today. Who knows what future brings?



I repeat, I'm not an expert in the field, just somebody that internalizes things their own way, by working through the numbers themself. My model provides NO means of slowing this thing down - which is clearly incorrect... The whole "herd immunity" thing and all. But, we're a long ways away from that phenomenon kicking in, so this ~2 month projection is probably not that far off.

Good work, but it's not really herd immunity that will stop it. It's the social distancing stopping the transmission.

We won't have herd immunity for a while.

By the way, your model doesn't show how it stops because it's projecting what's happening now. But, the "model" should be changing in a week or so.