High end sales slowdown

[s2y]

I dunno. I just sold one. I took a slight hit, but it was either that or let it linger indefinitely. Someone got a decent deal. I don't get people posting a guitar for about the price of a new one when I could order a new one and have the warranty.

[J Patrick]

…supply and demand still rule the day…desireable instruments in shorter supply sell quickly even when priced fairly high…..but they’re topping out i think….I think the pandemic related mini boom has subsided a bit….so naturally guitars that are more commonly available are affected more acutely…..

…plus I think folks that saw their guitars value rise recently are still trying to get top dollar and folks ain’t buying….the same thing happened with real estate around these parts….

[Glob]

Prices are insane and getting worse. So it makes trading guitars a very poor proposition if every time you have to take a hit, ship, package, etc.

There's an underlying vibe within the forum - feels like GAS is slowly dying. Less frequent, less discussed (or to say "I'm done"). And I bet prices have a lot to do with it.

[srick]

Originally Posted by hamburg325

Observational bias? Of course. What I'm pointing out is precisely an observation. It's not data. But so what?

My take is that your own observation (and bias) is rosy. I hope dealers in all segments are doing fine, but I'm not sure that's the case in the higher end.

Yup- right now I think it’s rosy.

Also consider that the baby boom generation, who were totally in love with guitars during the 60s and 70s are likely driving the high end market. But we’re not going to last forever, so there will be a reckoning coming.

[Brent Hutto]

Originally Posted by Glob

Prices are insane and getting worse. So it makes trading guitars a very poor proposition if every time you have to take a hit, ship, package, etc.

There's an underlying vibe within the forum - feels like GAS is slowly dying. Less frequent, less discussed (or to say "I'm done"). And I bet prices have a lot to do with it.

I've been around this forum on and off for 15 years. There has ALWAYS been people saying, "I'm done" (and usually whistling Dixie). But I don't see any fewer multi-thousand-dollar New Guitar Days now than I did in the past.

[hifivic]

Well, within the last 3 months I bought a Collings OM-3, and a 00-17 Authentic and a Santa Cruz
H-13 AND sold a Santa Cruz custom OM German/cocobolo AND sold the 00-17 Authentic AND sold the Collings OM-3. I do however think too many folks have gotten greedy figuring that it's a buyers market so they are pricing used guitars at top dollar.

[hamburg325]

Originally Posted by Glob

Prices are insane and getting worse. So it makes trading guitars a very poor proposition if every time you have to take a hit, ship, package, etc.

There's an underlying vibe within the forum - feels like GAS is slowly dying. Less frequent, less discussed (or to say "I'm done"). And I bet prices have a lot to do with it.

I'd agree with that vibe observation. Things feel . . . different. Cooled off. Early COVID brought guitar shortages and rising demand. The COVID guitar boom.

Now? Feels like a correction. Is it, as some have pointed out, a fundamental shift in boomer demand? Has a threshold been passed?

I hope not. As a boomer guitar junky myself, I'm not ready to hang up my fingerpicks. I'm still enthralled by the excitement (and sprucy fragrance) of that next guitar. BUT, at the right price!

[s2y]

Originally Posted by J Patrick

…supply and demand still rule the day…desireable instruments in shorter supply sell quickly even when priced fairly high…..but they’re topping out i think….I think the pandemic related mini boom has subsided a bit….so naturally guitars that are more commonly available are affected more acutely…..

…plus I think folks that saw their guitars value rise recently are still trying to get top dollar and folks ain’t buying….the same thing happened with real estate around these parts….

My local real estate market is still climbing. I figure it will eventually crash or come back to normal, but that's pure speculation.

[cc132]

Originally Posted by srick

Also consider that the baby boom generation, who were totally in love with guitars during the 60s and 70s are likely driving the high end market. But we’re not going to last forever, so there will be a reckoning coming.

I feel like this isn't talked about enough. Younger American generations just don't care about guitar the way that the older generations do.

Short of there being some kind of guitar revival in the future, I have no idea what's going to happen to all of these super-premium tier instruments that the Boomers have been commissioning over the last 15-20 years. Maybe the Asian market will buy a lot of them? I genuinely have no clue.

[Maryc-k]

Don’t judge the guitar market by the ads here in the classifieds. People are buying. Especially from dealers they trust. Lots of sales are going on outside of what you see on-line.

[buddyhu]

Most years, guitar sales slow this time of year, and prices slacken, and then things pick up in the Spring. Are things different this time? Is this a different kind of slowdown, or a more severe slowdown? Too soon to tell, IMO.

When prices go up, many people start talking crashes and corrections and reckonings. Sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong. It isnt that unusual for prices on a wide variety of goods and services to race ahead for a while, and then become stagnant for a while, with no crash or correction ever happening. I take all such predictions with a few (or many) grains of salt.

The observation about economists probably holds true for arm chair economists: “Economists have correctly predicted seven of the last three recessions.”

I agree that asking prices for used guitars have, in general, soared in the last 3-6 months , and that many of the asking prices would only draw interest from the most feverish, the most naive, and/or the most impulsive buyers. Anyone who has watched prices on used guitars for more than a couple of years would be pretty reluctant to buy used guitars that are priced very close to the prices that a new guitar of the same model would command. But supplies will likely be pinched for many more months.

Theories that are impressionistic and that are contemporaneous are subject to many inaccuracies and biases.

And, as always, the future is uncertain.

[archerscreek]

I disagree to a point. I think it is a bad time to be a buyer, at least for dreadnoughts in the $3000-$6000 range. New and used asking prices are up and available quantities are down. CME got a Collings D2HA Traditional in about a week ago and it sold in a couple of days. Then prices rose once again on at least some of their models by a couple hundred dollars.

I saw a couple of Martin guitars listed here that I thought were rather high. Curious, I searched around and the guitars on AGF were actually about $500 less than dealers had them listed at. I bought this model about three years ago from one of the dealers I checked for $1600 less than what they are selling it for now.

Going back to Collings, in the past month or so I have discussed Collings guitars with at least three or four dealers across as many states. No one is having trouble selling their guitars.

Of course what I consider a high end guitar might be different than what others consider a high end guitar.

[hamburg325]

Originally Posted by Maryc-k

Don’t judge the guitar market by the ads here in the classifieds. People are buying. Especially from dealers they trust. Lots of sales are going on outside of what you see on-line.

No doubt. But those of us who scour dealer sites almost on a daily basis see a lot of higher-priced models just . . . sitting around. Perhaps more than they used to.

Are guitars still selling? Clearly, yes. But it does feel like some of the air has gone out of the high-end market.

[justonwo]

I think it's highly dependent on what it is you are selling, and no blanket statement can be made about all high-end instruments. I've sold a lot of high end guitars over the years and it's almost always a long process. I know I could sell any of my Two-Rock amps in days. Probably the same could be said for my Circas. Brondels will sit around for months before selling, which has pretty much always been true.

I think the guitar sales market is probably pretty robust right now overall.

[Tony Burns]

I think things are coming back to normal - i know what the %^&$ thing did to all of us,
some people went a bit nuts, and things were bonkers -im actually waiting for a reasonable priced USA made Guild 12 string
- i know it will happen , but maybe not until we normalize with all this phony shortage stuff -i say wait and be patience .
Things will be more buyers market than sellers - thou this is both good and bad , but it makes selling a high end guitar harder - Oh well .