High end sales slowdown

[hamburg325]

In both high end acoustic guitars (as well as home audio), the usual busy churn of commerce seems to have slowed to a crawl. I noticed this several weeks back, and thought the holiday season would unleash demand. If anything, things seem to have gotten even slower, at the least to these eyes.

COVID anxiety? Economic worry? Seasonal mood disorder? I wonder if dealers are feeling this. Knowing several, my take is that they are.

On the flip side, this is a great time to be a buyer of fine acoustics.

[Jamolay]

Browsing this forum, there are a lot of beautiful high end guitars out there. Not simply fine instruments, but works of art.

But, like many high end things, the cost vs benefit curve starts flattening out at some point with diminishing returns. Personal finances have a role here and these certainly are uncertain times.

[Draft Guitar]

Originally Posted by Jamolay

Browsing this forum, there are a lot of beautiful high end guitars out there. Not simply fine instruments, but works of art.

I agree with this; however, there are a few guitars posted in the for sale section recently that I probably would have pulled the trigger on except for one thing - my concern about shipping a high end acoustic guitar in the dead of winter.

I have sold three guitars recently, one of which can be considered high end, and have four more for sale locally. I can say that local sales have dropped significantly. About all I get lately is "is this guitar still available" with zero follow-up.

[brencat]

I agree that sales, at least here on AGF, have just about stopped completely. However, I also see plenty of guitars with asking prices way high and/or completely out of line. AGF has never been the place to try and get top dollar for your guitars. Too many of us have very long memories and remember what stuff traded for pre-pandemic, and we're not about to pay up just because we must have it "right now" when many already have plenty of guitars. There's no pressing need to add another at this time.

Couple that with surging inflation at the supermarket and elsewhere, and I think many people are like, "you know what, I'll check back again in 6 months....maybe."

[tbeltrans]

Though I am not in the market for another guitar, I do read these threads with interest/curiosity.

For me, the focus has changed from acquiring guitars to playing them. I don't mean that to sound snarky at all. Instead, my point in saying it is that my dollars now go to various lessons or courses that interest me, rather than new instruments.

I don't know if that is a common thing or not, so maybe I am just speaking for one person.

Tony

[DBW]

Originally Posted by tbeltrans

For me, the focus has changed from acquiring guitars to playing them. Tony

Same here. I have all I want- more than I need. I'm also making what I have better- (set-ups, getting electronics installed). I've stopped watching all the _____ vs. ______ and Review of _______. on YouTube. I'm currently watching the Guthrie Govan Master Class on String Bending for my next lesson.

[tbeltrans]

Originally Posted by DBW

Same here. I have all I want- more than I need. I'm also making what I have better- (set-ups, getting electronics installed). I've stopped watching all the _____ vs. ______ and Review of _______. on YouTube. I'm currently watching the Guthrie Govan Master Class on String Bending for my next lesson.

Today, we are getting snow and the roads are reported to be slippery. I don't have to go anywhere this month except an appointment at the VA Medical Center one day later this month. I love that I get to stay home in our condo (where I don't have to shovel snow and our cars are both tucked away in our underground heated garage in the stalls that came with our condo) and play guitar and piano.

Tony

[Methos1979]

Originally Posted by brencat

I agree that sales, at least here on AGF, have just about stopped completely. However, I also see plenty of guitars with asking prices way high and/or completely out of line. AGF has never been the place to try and get top dollar for your guitars. Too many of us have very long memories and remember what stuff traded for pre-pandemic, and we're not about to pay up just because we must have it "right now" when many already have plenty of guitars. There's no pressing need to add another at this time.

Couple that with surging inflation at the supermarket and elsewhere, and I think many people are like, "you know what, I'll check back again in 6 months....maybe."

I'd have to agree with this. Lot's of people posting really high asking prices right now and 'rightfully' so in that used prices are high for everything these days with a lack of stock for many fine guitars. But like Brencat says, many of us remember a short while back when many of these guitars were going for a grand less so we're not so quick to jump on something. That said, I'm amazed that the guitars are actually selling. So either people are buying at these inflated prices or more reasonable offers are being made and accepted privately which is the most likely scenario.

Another reason for the slowdown is of course the holiday season. Most people are much less likely to spend several thousand dollars on themselves when they are spending their money buying gifts for others. Then factor in the cold winter months in the north and the lack of desire to ship fine instruments in severe weather and you've got the perfect storm. And that's without even factoring in the recent FedEx package dumping fiasco! When that story broke my first thought was just that - imagine having a fine guitar in transit with FedEx and reading that!

[hamburg325]

Originally Posted by brencat

I agree that sales, at least here on AGF, have just about stopped completely. However, I also see plenty of guitars with asking prices way high and/or completely out of line. AGF has never been the place to try and get top dollar for your guitars. Too many of us have very long memories and remember what stuff traded for pre-pandemic, and we're not about to pay up just because we must have it "right now" when many already have plenty of guitars. There's no pressing need to add another at this time.

Couple that with surging inflation at the supermarket and elsewhere, and I think many people are like, "you know what, I'll check back again in 6 months....maybe."

Agree that, in many cases on the AGF, asking prices are very high, especially given that demand has all but dried up.

On Reverb, I typically watch around 50-60 guitars, and I've noticed that very few of them have sold over the past weeks and months. Fewer than I've ever seen, I'd say.

Of course, new guitar prices have risen steeply. From mid-sized builders, fairly standard sitka/EIR guitars can push $8K. And anything remotely custom often pushes past the $10K level.

No wonder Eastman appears to be booming.

[wguitar]

Originally Posted by brencat

I agree that sales, at least here on AGF, have just about stopped completely. However, I also see plenty of guitars with asking prices way high and/or completely out of line. AGF has never been the place to try and get top dollar for your guitars. Too many of us have very long memories and remember what stuff traded for pre-pandemic, and we're not about to pay up just because we must have it "right now" when many already have plenty of guitars. There's no pressing need to add another at this time.

Couple that with surging inflation at the supermarket and elsewhere, and I think many people are like, "you know what, I'll check back again in 6 months....maybe."

Well said!

It also seems like there are a lot of resellers and "flippers" on AGF, as opposed to folks just "thinning the herd" or selling one to buy another -- which I think is causing at least some of the price inflation (at least that's my perception).

Cheers!

[KevinH]

Originally Posted by brencat

I agree that sales, at least here on AGF, have just about stopped completely. However, I also see plenty of guitars with asking prices way high and/or completely out of line...

It depends on the guitar of course. I've watched a couple models of guitars in the $3K range sell in a day or two recently. One sold for more than its new street price, but they are near impossible to find. But, yeah, prices do seem high - just like in the housing market and many other things these days.

[Racerbob]

I've noticed a number of expensive recently built and bought guitars now up for sale, some of them at clearly a loss. Did some folks get carried away ?

[phydaux]

My state currently has the highest number of active covid cases to date, the highest number of deaths per day to date, maxed out ICUs, and hospitals have begun refusing to schedule elective surgeries so that they have beds available for covid cases. And yet our governor insists everything's fine. No mask mandates, no lockdowns.

I'm convinced that they are trying to keep things as "business as usual" as possible because so many businesses rely on the holiday shopping season to break even for the year. So the state & local governments are waiting until January before they roll out Mask & Lockdown Part 2.

But people aren't as stupid as all that, and I think that shows in reduced spending. That, and the inflation that has manifest in higher gas & food prices.

It took three years for the Spanish Flu to run its course. I see no reason why it won't take us three years to be rid of covid.

Great time to sit at home and play the blues. And we'll be in good company. Nero fiddled while Rome burned.

[Merak]

Saturated market?

[tbeltrans]

Originally Posted by Racerbob

I've noticed a number of expensive recently built and bought guitars now up for sale, some of them at clearly a loss. Did some folks get carried away ?

When I see that, I wonder if maybe the guitar didn't turn out as the buyer hoped. Not that there is anything wrong with the guitar itself, but maybe it ends up not as the buyer expected for one reason or another. I am talking about commissioned guitars, rather than those purchased from a shop with a return policy. For those, I haven't a plausible explanation except maybe the person simply wants to try a bunch of guitars so they pass through his or her hands.

Tony