Inflation is reversing. YAY!

[catndahats]

So well said.
Same at our house...glad we are liquid and our music room is complete (for now )

Originally Posted by Bob Womack

Let's take it down to the "granular" level, as they say these days. My little family sees things in terms of bills and expenses vs income, with an eye towards free money after all is paid. In our case, we give each other a little allowance every two weeks if there is money to spare. Typically, my allowance goes directly into my guitar fund. With a little discipline, my guitar fund can stay at about the same level despite occasional purchases.

We sold the family homestead this year and received a distribution from the trust that held it. With that money we paid off our mortgage, a loan for a new heat pump, and our charge card. All things considered, we ended up with a little less than $1200 per month less in bills starting in April. We've also been pulling in the reigns on budget, simplifying our lifestyle and lowering our monthly requirements. Meanwhile, my wife works for a large chain pharmacy corporation. Due to the economy/inflation issues, my wife's company has reduced her hours by one-half.

How has it worked out? Right around April was when inflation began rising dramatically. Despite the $1200 added to our monthly headroom and our lifestyle cost reductions, our groceries, eating out, gasoline, the electric bill, cell phone, cable, everything has gone up. The bottom line is that we've experienced a loss in discretionary income. In fact, at my level we've only disbursed allowances once in the past four months, so my little guitar fund is shrinking dramatically.

Bob

[buddyhu]

Originally Posted by rmp

they lower the price 30 cents and we're supposed to cheer?

it's still up about 2 bucks from about a year ago.

We are working with different numbers. In my area, gas is down much more than 30 cents; it peaked here at $5.10, and is now $4.23 ( or less).

And $4.23 is very close to the price we were paying in September of 2021.

Maybe you should move here.

[imwjl]

Not so fast and simple with food prices dropping. There we have other inputs that have been more expensive and scarce. Ag chemicals and labor to start. Then add drought and near drought.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

After that, keeping food plants and farms staffed remains challenging. Beyond that some industries still have a big backlog of orders to fill.

We are trying to build a small home in an area less prosperous and with a very different economy than where our main home and careers are. There is a big backlog of work there too.

On food, our home to cabin trip traverses very important ag areas. We observe the crops, how much irrigation, and the harvests. Though not what it should be, you can see another dry summer is not totally hampering the canning companies.

I'm not complaining about lower gasoline prices but the high prices have not been much of a problem for our family. They've been a reminder of changes we've made over time to drive less and drive more efficient vehicles.

[AX17609]

I am sensing many of the things discussed in this thread in my area, as well. But the next set of CPI numbers won't be released until Wednesday, and they will be for July. We may not see a numerical downturn until the September release of August numbers, which won't be until after Labor Day.

[Mr. Jelly]

Originally Posted by buddyhu

So, the future remains uncertain. But I personally will be surprised if there is a depression, though we might see a mild recession (or already be in one), similar to what we saw in the early 90’s.

Then we can talk about definitions. One person's mild recession is another's depression. It's a recession when your neighbor loses their job and a depression when you lose your job type of thing.

[Gitfiddlemann]

One insidious consequence I've noticed in the marketplace ever since inflation took off, mostly by mfrs. in the food/beverage industry, is the practice to subtly reduce the contents of packages while tweaking the price up in a kind of "double dipping" dance. I think they call it "shrinkflation".
Those clever marketing folks taking advantage of the situation ever so stealthily.
I don't know if it's widespread, but I think it's definitely taking place. Just because prices might be coming down on the sticker doesn't necessarily mean you're getting what you used to for that price!
Be on the lookout for it.

[martingitdave]

We are still in unprecedented times related to the pandemic. Our supply chain stressors are beginning to ease. I believe the Covid related strains on the production and distribution of goods continue to be the biggest inflationary consideration. It’s not a devaluation of the currency. Our currency is extremely strong right now globally.

The oil prices are coming down in part due to govt actions, and demand reduction. The jobs report shows that the economy is continuing to grow in many sectors despite a drop in GDP. Unemployment is at 3.5%! Most of the stimulus from the pandemic is long gone. The economy is running on its own.

Now we’re about to see new money in the clean energy sector (as well as oil and gas), lower drug prices, and a number of costs intended to ease inflationary pressures on families. We don’t know when that will kick in.

Any economist who thinks they know what’s going to happen next is fooling themselves.

[srick]

Folks, just a quick note on behalf of the moderators: First, thank you all for keeping the discussion civil and informative. Second, let's continue to be vigilant and avoid political discussions here.

Many thanks,

Rick - AGF Moderator

[rokdog49]

Regular gas in my town is $3.39 / gal.

[imwjl]

Worth considering article in today's news, and something that has been on my mind. On my mind because I know our industry (food, retail, kitchens, delivery) have had a few years of frequent pay raises. Others in our region and country too. The now 3 years of 5% to 20% raises add up.

Our income rose during pandemic and it pretty much all went to higher wages and infrastructure spending so to me, very interesting stuff.

Within it, I've been thrilled. We have staff who've been able to make first time car and home purchases. I believe I posted last summer about catching a work associate with tears of joy because she took her first vacation to a resort in her adult life.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/rapid-w...hare_permalink

[Mr. Jelly]

Here in Iowa gas has normally run around the mid $3 range. It's flirting with that now. But I don't drive that much being retired and all. I do eat though. So, the inflation numbers will show inflation as being not as bad as it has been because of the lower gas price. This is not my first rodeo. I am looking forward to my SS cost of living increase.

[Rolph]

Yesterday I noticed our monthly bill for trash pickup increased from $90 to $140/month.
I called the company and asked why there was such a large increase when you invest about 3 minutes in my residence per month?
She said. INFLATION
I said: You're causing the inflation. Are your trucks quieter, more efficient, less polluting??????? She hung up on me.

[imwjl]

Originally Posted by Rolph

Yesterday I noticed our monthly bill for trash pickup increased from $90 to $140/month.
I called the company and asked why there was such a large increase when you invest about 3 minutes in my residence per month?
She said. INFLATION
I said: You're causing the inflation. Are your trucks quieter, more efficient, less polluting??????? She hung up on me.

I can take some guesses because I spent 6 years on a city council committee that managed parts of this, and I once owned a trash hauling and recycling business. I have a hard time not following it as much as I'm no longer in it.

The average wages of trash haulers has been lower than other parts of trucking. Just like other segments, it has had to become more of a living wage job. Having done that work myself, I'd surely (and did) pursue better work for both wages and the work environment.

In the US we are 10+ years with a lot of states like mine where state law limits how a municipality can raise revenue so a lot of municipal budgeting has changed.

Landfill and tipping fee costs are forever rising. It's no longer so easy to ship trash away from home. A period of economic growth has made potential landfill sites really expensive.

Other parts of the world have become good at recycling and freight is expensive so markets are changed. Corrugated wastepaper is considerably lower than recent highs. That's about a 20% loss of income for what your recycling truck or center gets.

If it is welcome to America, it's same one I've known for 60+ years. I remember when our family business had to pay the truck drivers a lot more and prices changed - that was decades ago just like now.

[catndahats]

Pretty soon what is known as as a dreadnought will be an om size.
An om will be a parlor size, and a parlor will be ukulele sized.

Just trying to be funny, but your observation is shared here too.

Originally Posted by AndreF

One insidious consequence I've noticed in the marketplace ever since inflation took off, mostly by mfrs. in the food/beverage industry, is the practice to subtly reduce the contents of packages while tweaking the price up in a kind of "double dipping" dance. I think they call it "shrinkflation".
Those clever marketing folks taking advantage of the situation ever so stealthily.
I don't know if it's widespread, but I think it's definitely taking place. Just because prices might be coming down on the sticker doesn't necessarily mean you're getting what you used to for that price!
Be on the lookout for it.

[radiokid]

Our gas is down from $6.69 to $5.45 but we are in a unique market. Probably the best hedge against energy price increases has been the steps taken since 2017 to lower our consumption. To that end I installed two mini splits myself and added rooftop solar. The result is a utility bill one tenth of those pre 2017 and this adds immediately to our monthly income. I also ditched the 19 mpg Murano for a 30 mpg Rogue and further installed a heat pump dryer. A heat pump hot water tank that should qualify for a rebate is next. Food is still a sticking point cost wise but tre thinking our menu and adding more produce is fighting back. I would like a new acoustic but likely I’ll sell something to offset the cost. Otherwise fine.