COVID-19 (Cont'd #5)

[rokdog49]

Originally Posted by spock

Tom, You are preaching to the congregation with me. I am old enough to have lived through the Hong Kong flu of 1968 and the Swine flu of 2008, both very pervasive and deadly pandemics, and while the attitudes of rational folk was to try and avoid obviously sick people, the notion of social distancing with every person on the planet, masking up to pick up groceries, hunkering down in our homes in abject fear, etc., just wasn't practiced. The precedent this whole experience sets for future pandemics - and we will have them - is what concerns me more. The thought of continually bringing civilization and life as we know it to a screeching halt until some vaccine or test can be developed is not compatible with surviving as a free nation. Just my opinion.

I’m with you. Furthermore, as I get around in limited fashion, I find that a goodly number of folks I speak with are tired of the way this whole thing has been portrayed. This morning, I went to the grocery store during the early morning “senior hour” at 6 A.M.
Two employees were talking and saying that it seems awfully stupid that until last week, no employee in the store was wearing a mask and no one has gotten sick.
My son works in a facility that builds specialized electrical equipment and the nature of the work requires close proximity in certain situations.
There have been some folks who got ill. Nobody knows if it was a common cold or the virus, but they stayed home and came back after they improved.
My son has gotten a cold or whatever as well.
I’m going to say something very controversial here. For the record, those who disagree can think what they want of me and my opinion. It won’t change a thing.
I believe we are just going to have to get used to what’s going on and move on with our lives. I’m of the opinion that is what will happen, one way or the other. We are already seeing signs of people rejecting the “rules”. That will become progressively more common as time goes on if things don’t change.
If the country and the we live in is one where we clamp down every time something like this occurs, it will be a miserable place. I don’t think a lot of people in this country will stand for it for very long. Whether that’s the right or wrong thing, I can’t say. I just don’t think it will stay like this.

[Kerbie]

AIDS-related illnesses have killed more than 30 million people since that epidemic began. I wonder how many it might have killed if we all had just moved on...

[KevWind]

Originally Posted by Kerbie

AIDS-related illnesses have killed more than 30 million people since that epidemic began. I wonder how many it might have killed if we all had just moved on...

While obviously we can never know the exact answers to " what if we had done this, or not done that" type questions . It only takes a bit of objective common sense to understand , (what infectious disease scientists have been warning about for decades). With the current world wide air transportation mobility capability we currently have.
Any pathogen that has a mortality factor involved (unless it basically close to null) coupled with a relatively long none symptomatic incubation period ( like Covid 19) has the potential to infect billions if left unchecked

I think the discussion of specific mortality rate is in fact a distraction to the underlying issue and why the above infection factor, is consistently ignored in discussions of mortality rate.

[seannx]

I’m not sure if this has been posted previously, but here's a link to a very thorough article about the risk factors for getting or spreading Covina-19 in different environments and conditions. It contains very well documented, factual information that’s well worth reading and considering in general, and especially as states move to reopen.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the...9063c8669c4027

The article begins:

The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them

It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from the outbreaks in China and Italy, that shows the backside of the mortality curve declines slowly, with deaths persisting for months. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, it is possible that we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That's what's going to happen with a lockdown.

As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. I understand the reasons for reopening the economy, but I've said before, if you don't solve the biology, the economy won't recover.

There are very few states that have demonstrated a sustained decline in numbers of new infections. Indeed, the majority are still increasing and reopening. As a simple example of the USA trend, when you take out the data from New York and just look at the rest of the USA, daily case numbers are increasing. Bottom line: the only reason the total USA new case numbers look flat right now is because the New York City epidemic was so large and now it is being contained.

So throughout most of the country we are going to add fuel to the viral fire by reopening. It's going to happen if I like it or not, so my goal here is to try to guide you away from situations of high risk.

[RP]

Originally Posted by KevWind

...I think the discussion of specific mortality rate is in fact a distraction to the underlying issue and why the above infection factor, is consistently ignored in discussions of mortality rate.

I agree, but think that the reason why many focus on mortality is death is finite and easiest to count...

[reeve21]

Originally Posted by seannx

I’m not sure if this has been posted previously, but here's a link to a very thorough article about the risk factors for getting or spreading Covina-19 in different environments and conditions. It contains very well documented, factual information that’s well worth reading and considering in general, and especially as states move to reopen.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the...9063c8669c4027

The article begins:

Thanks for sharing that piece. Someone sent it to me earlier this morning. It makes sense to me.

[jeanray1113]

Excellent piece. I saw it posted on Facebook a few days ago and shared it.

[buddyhu]

Originally Posted by seannx

I’m not sure if this has been posted previously, but here's a link to a very thorough article about the risk factors for getting or spreading Covina-19 in different environments and conditions. It contains very well documented, factual information that’s well worth reading and considering in general, and especially as states move to reopen.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the...9063c8669c4027

The article begins:

Just read the article. Excellent!

It draws a clear picture, it inter-relates some observations to one another in a way that helps one to grasp some of the dynamics of the illness and its transmission, and, most importantly, discusses how one can reduce one's own risk by identifying the highest risk environments and conditions.

Thanks for posting.

[imwjl]

Originally Posted by Kerbie

AIDS-related illnesses have killed more than 30 million people since that epidemic began. I wonder how many it might have killed if we all had just moved on...

I believe I understood @RockDog49's post and respect that. Still, my thinking is along same lines as your post. Any moving on is also tempered by my work. My real job is infrastructure but it's for a grocery, food and retail real estate firm. I can't share some of what I know (HIPAA, respect, privacy). We have a site in one of the nation's hot spots and people off the job. We have all the food availability issues that are continuing.

We've also had very good info from local and state health departments. They share information and help when you have a place everyone still visits. Our area had an election that made national news and protests that made national news. Those public gatherings did create spikes where contact tracing and questions made a connection to them.

Moving on has to occur with sagacity. It won't be as simple as people think. We're not opening 3 of 6 closed business units because not enough people are going to patronize them without better testing.

The right moving on path is good info, and don't paint your lines along tribal boundaries. It's being pragmatic.

[leew3]

Originally Posted by Kerbie

AIDS-related illnesses have killed more than 30 million people since that epidemic began. I wonder how many it might have killed if we all had just moved on...

Kerbie I fear that we're about to find out. Ours is a minority opinion though!

[buddyhu]

Originally Posted by leew3

Kerbie I fear that we're about to find out. Ours is a minority opinion though!

Actually, at this point, large majority of the US is still in favor of restrictions, and definitely in favor of face masks. Most folks appreciate how much of a gamble it is to re-open before a state reaches the clear benchmarks established by the CDC. I Suspect they also appreciate that “One swallow doesn’t make a summer” (referring to the return of the swallow birds as the seasons change), and don’t get overly excited about a small number of positive developments and hopeful signs (which is not to dismiss the positive developments...it is to take them in while also holding the big picture of everything that has happened and continues to happen around the globe).

[rokdog49]

I expected the push back. It’s fine.
I had posted a rebuttal but I erased it. It was not productive.
I hope and pray we can all get through this folks.

[rllink]

I had a speaking engagement for June 8th cancelled this afternoon and not rescheduled. The lady started by asking me what I thought and I told her it wasn't about what I thought, it was about what they thought. Pretty much all of my marketing other than social media is shut down. I don't know when it will start up again. I'm not fighting it. I have my own feelings about it all, but my concern is not just the safety for myself and people gathering to listen to what I have to say, but I'm also concerned about their their comfort to congregate together. I don't want to speak to a lot of people who have something else on their minds and can't enjoy the talk. I don't want them worrying if they are far enough away from each other or start worrying if someone at a table on the other side of the room coughs. What good is that? I might as well just talk to the walls. So I'm okay with it all as it is for now. Sure, I would like it all to go back the way it was. Part of my income is not existent right now. But it isn't going to, I don't care how much rationalization one does people are not going to "just move on." I have no idea when it will end. I'm going to get through it though.

[Tracerbullet]

Originally Posted by buddyhu

Actually, at this point, large majority of the US is still in favor of restrictions, and definitely in favor of face masks. Most folks appreciate how much of a gamble it is to re-open before a state reaches the clear benchmarks established by the CDC. I Suspect they also appreciate that “One swallow doesn’t make a summer” (referring to the return of the swallow birds as the seasons change), and don’t get overly excited about a small number of positive developments and hopeful signs (which is not to dismiss the positive developments...it is to take them in while also holding the big picture of everything that has happened and continues to happen around the globe).

Where does your data come from that the large majority of the US is in favor of restrictions? The number of people starting to protest and push back against the draconian restrictions is growing by day. In my state the pushback from constituents has been so large that counties are telling the governor that they are opening up regardless of what he thinks. The data clearly shows that the deaths are relegated to a very small group of people. Health care systems are laying staff off due to very small numbers of patients. Yes there are hotspots but for the most part they are relegated to the high density cities.
I had posted before it’s interesting to read this thread like minds congregate to groups that are like minded. Unfortunately I am not of the like mind of many of these posts.
This thread title should be changed to the “The End Of The World, unless we hide in fear” thread.
I respect everyone’s opinion on here but really can’t read this apocalyptic mantra any more.
Respectfully......carry on

[BrunoBlack]

Originally Posted by Tracerbullet

Where does your data come from that the large majority of the US is in favor of restrictions? The number of people starting to protest and push back against the draconian restrictions is growing by day. In my state the pushback from constituents has been so large that counties are telling the governor that they are opening up regardless of what he thinks. The data clearly shows that the deaths are relegated to a very small group of people. Health care systems are laying staff off due to very small numbers of patients. Yes there are hotspots but for the most part they are relegated to the high density cities.
I had posted before it’s interesting to read this thread like minds congregate to groups that are like minded. Unfortunately I am not of the like mind of many of these posts.
This thread title should be changed to the “The End Of The World, unless we hide in fear” thread.
I respect everyone’s opinion on here but really can’t read this apocalyptic mantra any more.
Respectfully......carry on

To answer your question, here’s one from 2 weeks ago. Perhaps there are updated opinion polls.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...lth-poll-finds

I just checked 538. I’m not saying what’s right or wrong, but there certainly seems to be general support.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-pre-pandemic/