Vintage Gear Price Bubble ?

[FaxMachine]

As everyone I’m sure is aware, prices of vintage acoustics (and other gear) have shot way up since the start of Covid. I don’t see any sign of the prices leveling out or dropping. Do you think this is the new “normal” for vintage prices, or will this bubble pop and many of us will once again be able to afford cool “old wood” guitars again. Should we treat this like stocks and avoid buying when prices are at an all time high, or buy our dream guitars while we can still find some good deals ? Just thinking is all.

[EverettWilliams]

Originally Posted by FaxMachine

As everyone I’m sure is aware, prices of vintage acoustics (and other gear) have shot way up since the start of Covid. I don’t see any sign of the prices leveling out or dropping. Do you think this is the new “normal” for vintage prices, or will this bubble pop and many of us will once again be able to afford cool “old wood” guitars again. Should we treat this like stocks and avoid buying when prices are at an all time high, or buy our dream guitars while we can still find some good deals ? Just thinking is all.

I’ve asked the same questions at points in the past when presented with guitar valuations that I thought were frothy. In each case, I look at those purchases and they appear to be really savvy decisions (even though they seemed risky at the time). I don’t know where this goes, but I’ve got some awesome guitars to play that are, on paper at least, worth a lot more than I paid for them. I didn’t buy them as an investment, but they have been, in retrospect, good in that regard and have been a good inflation hedge. I’m not putting all of my chips on vintage guitars, but I like them as an alternative class of investment and they’re extremely fun. I can’t say that about most investments.

[FaxMachine]

Originally Posted by EverettWilliams

I’ve asked the same questions at points in the past when presented with guitar valuations that I thought were frothy. In each case, I look at those purchases and they appear to be really savvy decisions (even though they seemed risky at the time). I don’t know where this goes, but I’ve got some awesome guitars to play that are, on paper at least, worth a lot more than I paid for them. I didn’t buy them as an investment, but they have been, in retrospect, good in that regard and have been a good inflation hedge. I’m not putting all of my chips on vintage guitars, but I like them as an alternative class of investment and they’re extremely fun. I can’t say that about most investments.

Good point. Certainly can’t grab your Tesla stock and go jam with your friends. So far all of my purchases have (on paper) been reasonable investments as well. But it does make me wonder if it is a good time to buy “dream guitars”. And my dream guitars never are cheap. And they are not getting any cheaper either.

[Boozehound]

I’m not sure they will keep going up at the rate they have been, but I don’t think the market will crash either. International demand seems to have picked up which very much influences the market. More buyers for the same number of instruments drives higher prices.

[Blackmore Fan]

Originally Posted by EverettWilliams

I’ve asked the same questions at points in the past when presented with guitar valuations that I thought were frothy. In each case, I look at those purchases and they appear to be really savvy decisions (even though they seemed risky at the time). I don’t know where this goes, but I’ve got some awesome guitars to play that are, on paper at least, worth a lot more than I paid for them. I didn’t buy them as an investment, but they have been, in retrospect, good in that regard and have been a good inflation hedge. I’m not putting all of my chips on vintage guitars, but I like them as an alternative class of investment and they’re extremely fun. I can’t say that about most investments.

That's the answer I'm giving my real estate clients as well. I don't live in a coastal market where historical prices fluctuate wildly. My advice is "If you want it, and plan on holding it for awhile, why guess as to what tomorrow might bring?".

[Osage]

Before the great recession, there was a similar spike in vintage prices. Once the economy tanked, the prices stopped going up and you saw a lot of dealers with expensive guitars that they couldn't sell. Some prices certainly dropped and at best they froze. You kind of had your pick of guitars there for a while too as the market was flooded.

I was at the Philly guitar show in maybe 2009. There was a Heritage auction on the Saturday. It had a large number of vintage Strats and they all sold cheap. Some were less than half of what they had been going for. Dealers down on the floor were almost panicking. The market didn't dry up but it was a pretty big shift that happened in about an hour.

[Sage Runner]

I pulled out some old Vintage Guitar catalogs Early 80s and mid 90s the other Day from Mandolin Bros and Elderly. Mind blowing the increase. But everything is more expensive especially Homes and cars etc. I will say looking back over last 40+ years pretty much all the vintage stuff I had at one time has increased a lot. Some more than other. A good investment? Just like anything it is a poker game to some extent. One of my old friends years ago picked up a 1935 Martin Herringbone in amazing EX+ condition. There was a point back 15 or so years ago he could of sold it for 100K easy. But he hung on to it enjoyed it then Passed away 5 years ago and wife only squeaked out 65K through a shop consignment. Certain Guitars have really shot up. Mid 60s Gibson ES 335,45s and 55s. Some things have stayed relatively the same. Some martin acoustics have slowly appreciated but not as much as others for some reason. I think there is a threshold with Vintage guitars that is subject to the economy and players demand and public hype. A mid 1930s Epiphone Olympic is a good example. When David Rawlings started playing one the prices skyrocketed on a guitar that was not that sought after. Certain Name recognition makers is a huge factor!!! Certain Boutique builders today have reached a status like DAngelico did 40 years ago even though many builders craft Guitars that likely sound and play better. There are a probably a thousand quality Boutique builders now world wide. How that affects the market years down the road will be interesting. But the old classic Vintage Guitars are limited in numbers especially as fires floods and circumstances deplete the existing stock over the years. Bottom line!!!! Enjoy what ya got!!!

[Corndog]

Vintage guitars and boutique builds have really shot up! I went to one luthier's site that I follow to actually consider a commission. Last I looked, maybe 4 or 5 moths ago it took $7500 for the basic guitar with bells and whistles additional. Now it's $15000 to get in the door. I'll pass.

Conversely, I think there are some very good values in the production guitars market of around $4000 and less. I was just commenting to a friend this afternoon, before I saw this thread, that I'm a little surprised at what a good value Martin's 15, 18, 28, Modern Deluxe, and a few others were...as an example of one brand. My opinion of course.

I think a few things are happening at once to put vintage and boutique guitars in the pricing stratosphere.
*The aging leisure class of retiring boomers with a lot of money.
*The oft mentioned Covid crunch of supply v demand.
*General inflation everywhere.
*More people are gravitating to things that are tangible, real, with intrinsic value because we are ever increasingly caught up in a disposable world.

Nothing much is more raw and yet beautiful than a guitar and is an antidote to the computer generated robot tripe that drifts to our ears from the TV, the speakers at Home Depot, and the grocery store. I think it makes a few of us want to beat drums and strum guitars.

[J Patrick]

…after giving it a lot of thought I think prices might go go up….might go down…or might stay the same…..no I didn’t really give it a lot of thought….and I doubt that anyone can confidently predict future prices on vintage guitars…..if I’m guessing I’ll guess they hold steady in the the foreseeable future…..

[dnf777]

Lots of good theories and predictions here, but Im gonna wait for my Magic 8 Ball to get back from the repair shop. Seems like I always buy high and sell low anyway…

[RP]

As cursed as I am by GAS, I can't say that I've ever been infected by the vintage guitar germ - thank goodness...

[Deliberate1]

“Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future.” – Yoda

"Yep." - David

[Shortfinger]

Sorry, we can't talk about wuflu.

[The Bard Rocks]

Originally Posted by Blackmore Fan

That's the answer I'm giving my real estate clients as well. I don't live in a coastal market where historical prices fluctuate wildly. My advice is "If you want it, and plan on holding it for awhile, why guess as to what tomorrow might bring?".

An agent myself, real estate is one of those investments that you can use, have fun with. A stock certificate is not. If you can buy low and sell high, you are golden. If it's the opposite, you are putty. But those that buy high and sell high or buy low and sell low are really just stepping sideways, which is perfectly OK.

I have noticed great price changes, upwards of course, in luthier-made instrument (over the past 5 years). I suspect this is greater than the inflation rate but would like to see a study on this before I make that claim. The fact is that the rising tide is floating all boats. If you invest in something that does not depreciate much and hold it for a while, you will have made money and had some fun. (As long as you do not include what is called "lost opportunity".)

[dnf777]

If we could consider a guitar an education, and the selling price as tuition, I can guarantee prices will soar well beyond wages, CPI, inflation, etc…