COVID-19 (Con’t)

[Joe Beamish]

Originally Posted by 6 Strings MI

So many folks are in forced confinement, yet the virus keeps spreading. That tells me one of two things: either the confinement orders are being defied, or the virus is spreading despite the countermeasures. Those are the factors I've considered, anyway.

Also, the case number goes up inevitably with the increase in testing.

[Peter Wilcox]

Originally Posted by Joe Beamish

My hope is that we collect meaningful data on the virus and get universal testing in place ASAP

And it needs to be serologic testing, not PCR, to be meaningful for future decisions.

[KevWind]

Originally Posted by Joe Beamish

You mean lift the quarantines go back to everyday life? That would mean people dying in hospital corridors due to lack of medical capacity to meet the sudden onslaught of cases. I'm not sure I'm cool with that, especially when I think of people in my family, and myself.

My hope is that we collect meaningful data on the virus and get universal testing in place ASAP -- and build medical capacity ASAP. Then revise our plan accordingly.

I think he means exactly the opposite, stop the "bandaid over a cancer lesion " half measures, and lock it down more and tighter , more wide spread testing, much more contact tracking etc. etc.

I posted this in the other thread but it is worth revisiting

[Joe Beamish]

^ Gotcha -- I tend to agree, although we're still waiting on solid, meaningful data to really understand this virus, and when we get it, hopefully we'll have the flexibility to revise the plan.

[slide496]

Originally Posted by tbeltrans

I read of an MIT study that said that 6 feet is not enough distance, that it is more along the lines of 23 - 28 feet. Also, that same study apparently says that the virus can live in the air for several hours and that evidence of the virus has been found in the air ducts near the rooms in hospitals where COVID-19 patients are.

Tony

NYC
3/30

There is an MIT article on the aerosol properties from March 11th

I've seen an article on the weather channel and one from the New England Journal of Medicine that is in support of several hours in the air.

I live in New York, near the densely populated epicenter so I conduct myself with an "over abundance of caution" with regard to aerosol properties. Opinions vary on the topic. I researched this in hopes of comimg up with some protocols that would work for me.

Sources

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6...d-on-packages/

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.105...CQafsdJq8m0Xro

https://weather.com/en-IN/india/coro...p-to-thee-days

[KevWind]

Originally Posted by Joe Beamish

^ Gotcha -- I tend to agree, although we're still waiting on solid, meaningful data to really understand this virus, and when we get it, hopefully we'll have the flexibility to revise the plan.

I think the graph is pretty solid and meaningful data to "really understand" what approaches have worked to what degree . S.E. Asia initiated strict distancing, lockdown, testing, and tracking, early on and those infection curves are all flatter
All we appear to be "waiting for", is for things to get much worse.

NYC hospitals are already in critical shortages right now, and will run out of many needed supplies in a week or less , how much more meaningful does it need to get ?

[tbeltrans]

Originally Posted by RP

Pretty tough to handcuff a culprit from six feet away unless they tossed him the cuffs and expected him to do it himself. On the other hand, I saw three highway workers today taking break. They were standing/leaning against three sides of a platform with their faces about two feet away from each other. The cops were doing their job and risking catching COVID19; these three yutzes were on break and choosing to place their faces near each other. I wonder if in rural areas, the risk seems like some far away thing....

My comment was tongue-in-cheek. The smiley was there for a reason. Obviously, the cops had to be in close quarters to handcuff the guy.

Sorry, I need to remember that humor gets lost in text and smileys don't help.

Tony

[Dru Edwards]

Nova Scotia (Canada) is under strict rules. A woman was given a $700 fine and her car impounded yesterday because she was walking in a park in the afternoon, which is now closed to everyone. Someone else was fined because they were not adhering to the 14 day quarantine rule for anyone who enters the province.

I have no problem with the above ... although $700 and an impounded car was steep.

Are police issuing fines and impounding vehicles where you are?

[robj144]

Originally Posted by KevWind

I think the graph is pretty solid and meaningful data to "really understand" what approaches have worked to what degree . S.E. Asia initiated strict distancing, lockdown, testing, and tracking, early on and those infection curves are all flatter
All we appear to be "waiting for", is for things to get much worse.

NYC hospitals are already in critical shortages right now, and will run out of many needed supplies in a week or less , how much more meaningful does it need to get ?

That graph is nice, but it only shows the initial growth of the virus. Those dotted lines for doubling are the SLOPES of the graphs. In other words, if you look at it, it looks like everyone still is between a week and a day doubling, but that's clearly not the case. The slope of S. Korea, for instance, is nearly zero which means it is well outside doubling every week now.

[RP]

Originally Posted by tbeltrans

My comment was tongue-in-cheek. The smiley was there for a reason. Obviously, the cops had to be in close quarters to handcuff the guy.

Sorry, I need to remember that humor gets lost in text and smileys don't help.

Tony

Yeh, mine was supposed to be tongue-in-cheek as well. I was trying to make the point that some are forced to forgo the safe distance thing while others choose to ignore it. I have been wearing gloves and a cloth mask for grocery visits for the past week or so, but I continue to see others in my age group (70) in the same store that appear to take no precautions. That's why I wondered if some who live in a rural area don't take COVID19 very seriously...

[tbeltrans]

Originally Posted by RP

Yeh, mine was supposed to be tongue-in-cheek as well. I was trying to make the point that some are forced to forgo the safe distance thing while others choose to ignore it. I have been wearing gloves and a cloth mask for grocery visits for the past week or so, but I continue to see others in my age group (70) in the same store that appear to take no precautions. That's why I wondered if some who live in a rural area don't take COVID19 very seriously...

We are in agreement on this issue. Unfortunately, as you pointed out, cops can't always keep the distance. That guy who was handcuffed will probably end up with a bunch of other people in a cell.

By the way, I am 67, so younger than you.

Tony

[Joe Beamish]

Originally Posted by Peter Wilcox

And it needs to be serologic testing, not PCR, to be meaningful for future decisions.

Yes, it would be AWESOME to know who's been infected, and is therefore immune.

[Joe Beamish]

Originally Posted by KevWind

I think the graph is pretty solid and meaningful data to "really understand" what approaches have worked to what degree . S.E. Asia initiated strict distancing, lockdown, testing, and tracking, early on and those infection curves are all flatter
All we appear to be "waiting for", is for things to get much worse.

NYC hospitals are already in critical shortages right now, and will run out of many needed supplies in a week or less , how much more meaningful does it need to get ?

Actually, we really need to find out how many people have been infected and have recovered. This will also tell us the death rate. Currently unknown.

[ManyMartinMan]

Originally Posted by ahorsewithnonam

It is scary that we are mostly just ......hiding from the virus ........through staying in our homes, social distancing. Need to find a cure, a vaccine to at least nullify its effects.

Vaccines take 12-24 months. Don't hold your breath. They will come but long after the current situation subsides.

[ManyMartinMan]

Originally Posted by 6 Strings MI

So many folks are in forced confinement, yet the virus keeps spreading. That tells me one of two things: either the confinement orders are being defied, or the virus is spreading despite the countermeasures. Those are the factors I've considered, anyway.

Neither actually although many are ignoring it. The virus is 2-4 weeks developing. Even if everyone in the country stayed at home zipped in a bag, there are thousands already infected because after months of full knowledge of this epidemic - some cities, counties and states still have zero containment plan.