COVID-19 CASES INCREASING

[BrunoBlack]

Originally Posted by rokdog49

Globally, hundreds of thousands of people die every year from the flu bug., every year.
That’s a fact.

Therefore —— what?

[MChild62]

All, some bad + possible hopeful news from a recent study using WHO reported data.

Rather than looking at overall deaths vs numbers of those infected, a study that just appeared in The Lancet looks at total number of deaths reported globally on each day. They then considered the incubation period of 14 days (but cautioning it could be longer) as well as days from onset of symptoms to death, which has varied from 2 to 8 weeks.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...195-X/fulltext

On this basis, the authors took the total number of deaths each day, and compared this with the number of infections reported 14 days earlier. What they found was, if you look at the data this way, the death rate is 5.5% to 5.9%. If you walk the days back even further than 14, then it would be higher.

You can apply this to Italy's reported numbers, since Italy has had this problem and has been very transparent in both testing and in reporting deaths as being COVID-19 related. (As I have noted previously, the civil protection authorities here have stated in their press conferences that they believe Germany is under-attributing deaths to COVID-19.)
http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/a...c82fe38d4138b1

As you can see from the data, athough Italy's death rate has been horrific (no other word) what we are seeing now in deaths (click on "andamento nazionale" to expand) is that the deaths per day (the gray line) has recently slowed. It is now doubling every 4 days. That sounds awful, and it is, but consider that it was doubling every 2 days just a week ago.

It's too soon to say whether this is a positive trend, but we did go into our national lockdown just over 2 weeks ago. So hopefully we will see the number of deaths remaining flat for some time or even start to go down. It's hard to say because many people traveled to different areas, and more aggressive enforcement came into effect perhaps a week ago. So we're still learning.

Sadly, the doubling of death rates in many other countries is now getting shorter. In the France, the number of deaths is doubling every 3 days, and in Spain every 3 days. These countries had started some degree of remote working and partial lockdown (more so France) last week, and have only in recent days gone into full lockdown. So if the above Lancet study is a predictor, they need to brace for bad news before the lockdowns will (hopefully) bring the number under control.

[MChild62]

by the way, in terms of compliance/enforcement of the lockdown, I can report what I've seen myself. We live in the hills outside of Florence, and are fortunate to have some outdoor space and trees. It's only about a 20 minute drive up from the center of town. On nice days, we typically see people who park in our area in order to stroll, and there are bikers, and families out with their children and dogs.

For the first week of lockdown, I didn't see any difference in behavior. In fact, it seemed like there were MORE people out than as usual, probably as a result of being cooped up all week at home.

This week is completely different. No cars. Nobody walking on the streets or trails of this area. Nobody riding by our place on their bikes. Nothing. A few years ago, it snowed heavily and nobody could get out of their homes for a few days. But that was different. You could still see people outside and socializing. Now it... seems post-apocalyptic.

We have wild boars and deer in this area, but normally they are higher up in the hills this time of year. Already with the absence of any people these last few days days, they are already back in the woods behind our home, digging for whatever tubers or truffles they might find.

[robj144]

Originally Posted by rokdog49

Globally, hundreds of thousands of people die every year from the flu bug., every year.
That’s a fact.

And, as it's just getting started, Covid-19 is killing more people per day, on average, than the flu. That's also a fact.

[KevWind]

Humm seems to me that obviously there will be a significant hit to the economy whether we adopt social distancing or not.
But seems obvious as well, that there is absolutely no evidence and thus no reason to believe a "business as usual" approach with the attendant mass infection, mass hospitalizations and deaths etc. numbering in the hundreds of thousands if not millions would be any less of an economic hit than from that of social distancing.

But it also looks like aggressive social distancing and testing not only works but fairly quickly as well
Given that we do in fact have an example of aggressive social distancing and the result.

If we look at and compare what was and is now, happing in (S.E. Asia, China, S. Korea, Singapore, et.al. where social distancing, and testing was enacted fairly quickly and aggressively) , on these two current maps from Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Engineering


We can see that in the Cumulative cases map, S.E. Asia was a hotbed of infection



But on the current Active cases map, there is significant flattening and even reduction in most of that same area

[Dirk Hofman]

Originally Posted by gitarro

Of course they have. Look at china and South Korea who are emerging from the tunnel on the other side and resuming some semblance of normal life now while the rest of the world is entering lockdown.

Yes, they had a lockdown. I’m asking what the alternative is for those suggesting the lockdowns are not the answer. I haven’t heard an alternative and how it will play out. Do nothing strikes me as a bigger economic hit than a lockdown. Far bigger.

[MChild62]

Originally Posted by Dirk Hofman

Yes, they had a lockdown. I’m asking what the alternative is for those suggesting the lockdowns are not the answer. I haven’t heard an alternative and how it will play out. Do nothing strikes me as a bigger economic hit than a lockdown. Far bigger.

possibly Sweden. Definitely not in step with measures being taken across most of Europe.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...virus-response

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-herd-immunity

[KevWind]

Originally Posted by MChild62

possibly Sweden. Definitely not in step with measures being taken across most of Europe.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...virus-response

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-herd-immunity

Perhaps but it should noted
Sweden has stated they may yet impose more restriction (which they will be able to enact very quickly comparatively to elsewhere)
And it should also be taken into consideration that while Sweden is about the size of California, it has about the same population of just LA county alone.
Sweden has a population density of 57 per square mile, LA county some 2300 + per square mile ..... Just some perspective

[Jeff Scott]

Originally Posted by Arlington

...changes ..... how we behave and meet, etc.

The millenials had the right ideas, all along, it appears. Smart phones and isolationistic social behavior?

Originally Posted by frankmcr

...keeping reasonably distant (at least one metre, says the WHO)...

I keep reading/hearing 6'/2M.

Originally Posted by rokdog49

Globally, hundreds of thousands of people die every year from the flu bug., every year.
That’s a fact.

Not to mention road accidents, workplace accidents, airline crashes, etc.

Originally Posted by Dirk Hofman

I’m asking what the alternative is for those suggesting the lockdowns are not the answer. I haven’t heard an alternative and how it will play out.

Natural selection?

Dinosaurs once ruled the planet. Perhaps, it's finally time for dogs to run things around here. Well, maybe cats; IIRC, dogs have been carriers/contracting this, too.

[fazool]

this may help in understanding without hysteria

[DenverSteve]

Numbers I heard yesterday and looked up today show the importance of limiting contact and how this is moving.


"It took 67 days from the first reported case to reach the first 100,000 cases. Eleven days for the second 100,000 and just four days for the third 100,000," he said.

Now today, just over two days later we will go over 400,000 - once Italy or France's numbers are recorded. Exponential growth is stopped by limiting movement which curtails the spread.

[Dirk Hofman]

Originally Posted by MChild62

possibly Sweden. Definitely not in step with measures being taken across most of Europe.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...virus-response

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-herd-immunity

Thank you, I hadn't heard about Sweden's approach. What I'm looking for though is the projections. They must have some estimates on how this approach will play out, and that's what I'm actually interested in seeing. How many deaths do they think they'll suffer, over what time? What is the long-term effect of the herd immunity they're seeking?

As KevWind noted, they may be moving off this approach. Also would love to see the data that's pointing them in that direction. Basically, I'd like to see what information and projections the decision-makers are weighing in either case.

I'm definitely not seeing that from the voices calling for an end to the quarantines in the U.S. I just don't know how the public can make informed decisions about our direction if we don't have access to the data informing their decisions. The only people publishing projections are for those in favor of quarantines. Those against it are just making broad assertions with no data to support them, at least as far as I've seen. I'd be genuinely thrilled to be wrong about that.

[frankmcr]

Originally Posted by Jeff Scott

I keep reading/hearing 6'/2M.

The World Health Organization says:

Maintain at least 1 metre (3 feet) distance between yourself and anyone who is coughing or sneezing.
Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...ice-for-public

[ManyMartinMan]

CDC says 6'

[Jeff Scott]

Originally Posted by frankmcr

The World Health Organization says:

Maintain at least 1 metre (3 feet) distance between yourself and anyone who is coughing or sneezing.
Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...ice-for-public

Originally Posted by ManyMartinMan

CDC says 6'

It is so comforting that these two very imortant instititions can agree on things.