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  #151  
Old 03-31-2020, 06:38 PM
RedJoker RedJoker is offline
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That's interesting but I have so many questions about the data in all the other categories. Any info on the sources for those?
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  #152  
Old 03-31-2020, 08:38 PM
gitarro gitarro is offline
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There’s a very interesting article published in the New Yorker: How Does the Coronavirus Behave Inside a Patient, by Siddhartha Mukherjee. He is a terrific author. He wrote the Books - Gene and Emperor of All Maladies. Pretty interesting article with good insights that are presented in a very accessible manner.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...side-a-patient
He is indeed a good author based on tbe little I have read of that book on cancer that he wrote.
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  #153  
Old 03-31-2020, 11:13 PM
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In spite of all the spirited and informative discussion on the board, and the 24/7 news coverage of the pandemic, there are still people out there that just don't get it.

We have members of this board reporting volley ball games and group bike rides in western Iowa, bar-hopping in north Alabama. In New York City throngs gather to watch the USNS Comfort sail into harbor while a man in Maryland throws a huge bonfire party in direct violation of the new lock down norms in the state. A preacher near Baton Rouge LA keeps busing members of his flock into services, sometimes 500 at a time.

We still have major cities running mass transit services. The riders are mostly lower paid essential service providers - grocery store clerks, nursing home aides, hospital maintenance workers and so forth.

We have airports flying people in and out of hotspots like Seattle, NYC, and New Orleans.

This type of continuing activity is not a good prognosis to get out of this quandary quickly. We will solve this later rather than sooner due to human behavior issues.

I think that in historical retrospect, the right thing to do would have been to quarantine the USA from all international contact the moment they figured out that there was a viral outbreak in China. A lot of models predicted this exact scenario. But the economic impact on society would have been a disaster for aspiring politicos from any party. In the end all we can say is "We could of, would of, should of" and hope that the American spirit will recover from this.

During World War II, the Battle of Britain lasted (I believe) 58 days. The Brits sheltered in place and came out of it OK. I have been sheltering in placer for 21 days and think that I have the wherewithal to outlast them for another 37 days with ease.

Here we go.
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  #154  
Old 03-31-2020, 11:28 PM
6 Strings MI 6 Strings MI is offline
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I think that in historical retrospect, the right thing to do would have been to quarantine the USA from all international contact the moment they figured out that there was a viral outbreak in China.
I find no fault with this statement.

Buses in the Detroit area are still running pretty normally. I can see why, as essential workers who do not own vehicles must have some way of getting to their workplace. But the rest of those scenarios? Those folks must expect that a miracle cure will fall out of the sky tomorrow.
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  #155  
Old 03-31-2020, 11:50 PM
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I know it has been bad and getting worse in the US, but I think today (3/31) will start getting in the "very bad" category... as I write this just past midnight.
912 dead today... I think it's moving into very bad.
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  #156  
Old 04-01-2020, 12:14 AM
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Not too long ago, I watched a documentary on the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918 (I'll post it later if I can find it). One take-away was that said epidemic is estimated to have killed three percent of the world's population at the time. For the sake of rounded numbers and fair estimates, three percent of the world's population today would be somewhere between 200,000,000 and 250,000,000 people. Three percent of the U.S. population would be roughly 9,000,000 to 10,000,000 people. Though this virus is worse than I initially figured it would be, I can't see it being as severe as the Spanish flu epidemic, let alone the Bubonic plague. Of course, I'm no expert in infectious diseases, so perhaps my opinion is best taken with a lump of salt.
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Last edited by Kerbie; 04-01-2020 at 01:43 AM. Reason: Please refrain from profanity
  #157  
Old 04-01-2020, 01:23 AM
MChild62 MChild62 is offline
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912 dead today... I think it's moving into very bad.
Watching worst case projections being met and revised into progressively even worse cases gets old real fast.
  #158  
Old 04-01-2020, 03:00 AM
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In spite of all the spirited and informative discussion on the board, and the 24/7 news coverage of the pandemic, there are still people out there that just don't get it...
I agree. My opinion is based on observations of people either huddling or those in my high-risk age group taking no visible precautions at the grocery store....
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  #159  
Old 04-01-2020, 04:29 AM
slide496 slide496 is offline
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Originally Posted by Cypress Knee View Post
In spite of all the spirited and informative discussion on the board, and the 24/7 news coverage of the pandemic, there are still people out there that just don't get it.
04/01
NYC

No they don't. I saw some video of the subways and the platforms and there were clusters and non-compliance. They reduced the frequency of the transit by 25% so that might account for the crowding.

FYI:
The NY Times finally came out with a briefing that said "MASKS ON" They say the CDC is considering whether to recommend (not n95) masks be worn in public to cut down on transmission from asymptomatic carriers. I guess we'll see if the CDC feels safe enough to do that in an environment where so many people have proven to have poor comprehension. The Times is not recommending the N95 medical masks for the common citizen. Here's a quote:

"So the C.D.C. is now considering whether to recommend that more people — maybe everybody — wear a mask when out in public.

Not a high-grade N95 medical mask, though. Those are scarce and should still be saved for those who need them most, medical professionals and others on the front lines. One reason the C.D.C. hesitated to advise universal mask-wearing was to avoid making shortages of those masks even worse.

But for this purpose, you don’t need that type; ordinary surgical masks and even homemade masks will do. They will help slow transmission in the community, even though they don’t ensure complete protection for the wearer.

And there’s a side benefit: Wearing any kind of mask, even a bandanna, will make you less likely to touch your face — an important route for infection.

Make your own mask. It isn’t difficult, and you may already have everything you need at home. Here’s a guide."

Last edited by slide496; 04-01-2020 at 07:28 AM. Reason: Clarity
  #160  
Old 04-01-2020, 04:56 AM
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Originally Posted by slide496 View Post
04/01
NYC


FYI:
The NY Times finally came out with a briefing that said "MASKS ON" They say the CDC is considering whether to recommend (not n95) masks be worn in public to cut down on transmission from asymptomatic carriers. I guess we'll see if the CDC feels safe enough to do that in an environment where so many people have proven to have poor comprehension and the need for n95 masks is so critical.
The recommendation is well and good, but how available are medical masks of any kind for the common citizen in New York?
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  #161  
Old 04-01-2020, 06:00 AM
RedJoker RedJoker is offline
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The recommendation is well and good, but how available are medical masks of any kind for the common citizen in New York?
I watched a press conference for my state yesterday and they were talking about even bandannas and scarves helping. The idea in this case is opposite of the typical medical mask. In this case, I would wear a mask to protect you by reducing how much I spread the virus, not to protect me. So if I cough, I'm just spraying particulate into my own mask, not out into the world. It's not a foolproof shield but it's a great improvement. Therefore, the common citizen would have quite a bit of access to something that would work as a mask.

I don't know if I said that very clearly....
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  #162  
Old 04-01-2020, 06:11 AM
AX17609 AX17609 is offline
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Originally Posted by Cypress Knee View Post
In spite of all the spirited and informative discussion on the board, and the 24/7 news coverage of the pandemic, there are still people out there that just don't get it.

During World War II, the Battle of Britain lasted (I believe) 58 days. The Brits sheltered in place and came out of it OK. I have been sheltering in placer for 21 days and think that I have the wherewithal to outlast them for another 37 days with ease.
The issue for me is that absent a vaccine, there is no end game. It's not just another 37 days of sheltering in place. As long as the virus is present in the culture, the population remains at risk. So, the moment you lift the restrictions, the cases go back up. One of the features of a solid public health program is that it has to be implementable and in proportion to the overall public risk. The current response effort is not sustainable.
  #163  
Old 04-01-2020, 06:43 AM
MChild62 MChild62 is offline
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Originally Posted by AX17609 View Post
The issue for me is that absent a vaccine, there is no end game. It's not just another 37 days of sheltering in place. As long as the virus is present in the culture, the population remains at risk. So, the moment you lift the restrictions, the cases go back up. One of the features of a solid public health program is that it has to be implementable and in proportion to the overall public risk. The current response effort is not sustainable.
Unfortunately this is a truth facing all economies, how to save their populations from the virus without subjecting them to risks of starvation or riots. I don't think anyone has this figured out yet.

I'm reading a lengthy report published yesterday by Confindustria, the association of Italian industries. They are urging a wide range of government measures to preserve industries, jobs, and the flow of capital in the financial markets.

Notably, the report emphasizes the interconnectivity of different economies, such as Italy's trade relationship with Germany, and Germany/Europe's relationship via banking institutions with the USA, so that a collapse of the US economy would make the situation in Europe even worse. So we are really all in this together.
  #164  
Old 04-01-2020, 07:25 AM
slide496 slide496 is offline
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The recommendation is well and good, but how available are medical masks of any kind for the common citizen in New York?
Sorry! - Ill update my post as its not clear and am post as a reply. The Times is not recommending the N95 medical masks for the common citizen. Here's a quote:

"So the C.D.C. is now considering whether to recommend that more people — maybe everybody — wear a mask when out in public.

Not a high-grade N95 medical mask, though. Those are scarce and should still be saved for those who need them most, medical professionals and others on the front lines. One reason the C.D.C. hesitated to advise universal mask-wearing was to avoid making shortages of those masks even worse.

But for this purpose, you don’t need that type; ordinary surgical masks and even homemade masks will do. They will help slow transmission in the community, even though they don’t ensure complete protection for the wearer.

And there’s a side benefit: Wearing any kind of mask, even a bandanna, will make you less likely to touch your face — an important route for infection.

Make your own mask. It isn’t difficult, and you may already have everything you need at home. Here’s a guide."

Last edited by slide496; 04-01-2020 at 07:47 AM.
  #165  
Old 04-01-2020, 07:45 AM
HodgdonExtreme HodgdonExtreme is offline
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I think it's pretty clear the "no mask necessary" guideline was to prevent another toilet paper situation... If no mask was necessary, there would not have been a big scramble to get more to the hospitals and healthcare workers - who rightly should get first dibs on them.

Still, it's absolutely bonkers to suggest or believe that a mask isn't going to help prevent infection.
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