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  #31  
Old 06-16-2021, 12:48 PM
Riverwolf Riverwolf is offline
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Originally Posted by Song View Post
Things will not get better if there's a nuclear war or plague.
Perhaps yes, perhaps no.
Too many people is just too many people having babies everyday.
We don't have enough space, food, water, or air.
What used to be the "boonies" around here is now concrete and people.
Too many people.
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  #32  
Old 06-16-2021, 01:09 PM
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Perhaps yes, perhaps no.
Too many people is just too many people having babies everyday.
We don't have enough space, food, water, or air.
What used to be the "boonies" around here is now concrete and people.
Too many people.
US birthrate has been below replacement rate since 2007, and probably longer.

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/05/99381...her-record-low
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  #33  
Old 06-16-2021, 02:42 PM
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US birthrate has been below replacement rate since 2007, and probably longer.

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/05/99381...her-record-low
Well to clarify . A bit of an ambiguous concept .....
Because the US population is still increasing

" In the six decades from 1950 to 2010, the U.S. population had increased from 157.8 million to 312.2 million, a total gain of 98% at an average annual rate of 1.1%. Thus, the projected annual rate of growth in the U.S. population is only about half the rate of growth experienced in the recent past.


Ambiguous because both the birth rate and replacement rate are based on percentages of per of 1000 increments of population

So in exaggeration to highlight ::
Yes a 10% birth rate in a population of 1,000 is ...... 100
But a 1% birth rate in a population of 100,000 is...... 1000
So the birth rate goes down but the pop goes up ,,,, or put another way, at 1/10 the rate, we get 10 times the people

And unfortunately it is that 98% increase which represents one significant fundamental flaw ,,,(the quick sand under the footer as it were) ,,,of the foundational structure or the notion of "lets make America all better again like the good old days"
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Last edited by KevWind; 06-16-2021 at 03:25 PM.
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  #34  
Old 06-16-2021, 03:48 PM
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Well to clarify . A bit of an ambiguous concept .....
Because the US population is still increasing
I'm glad you removed the word 'specious'.

For the overall population number, don't you have to include the death rate as well?
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  #35  
Old 06-16-2021, 04:03 PM
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I'm glad you removed the word 'specious'.

For the overall population number, don't you have to include the death rate as well?
Yes on rethinking I realized the numbers in the rate reduction are not "wrong" per se. (as per the definition of specious) they are simply skewed and do not represent to overall reality. Expanding population is very definitely a big issue.

While it is true that people living longer is certainly contributory to population numbers. That does not change the fact the regardless of stats quoted in the PBS article, the populations is still going up, so yes the notion that a negative replacement rate mitigates the population expansion, or more specifically the resource consumption rate, is specious.
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Last edited by KevWind; 06-16-2021 at 04:11 PM.
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  #36  
Old 06-16-2021, 04:13 PM
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Yes on rethinking I realized the numbers in the rate reduction are not "wrong" per se. (as per the definition of specious) they are simply skewed and do not represent to overall reality. Expanding population is very definitely a big issue.

While it is true that people living longer is certainly contributory to population numbers. That does not change the fact the regardless of stats quoted in the PBS article, the populations is still going up, so yes the notion that a negative replacement rate mitigates the population expansion, or more specifically the resource consumption rate, is specious.
Some interesting reading here:

https://www.census.gov/library/stori...s-to-slow.html

A quote, emphasis mine

"Population change at the national level stems from natural increase (the difference between births and deaths) and international migration (the movement of people into and out of the United States).

So far this decade, natural increase has been the largest source of population growth for the nation.

In 2019, natural increase dropped to 957,000, marking the first time in at least four decades that it slipped below a million, continuing the trend toward fewer births and more deaths."
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  #37  
Old 06-16-2021, 04:24 PM
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Originally Posted by David Eastwood View Post
Some interesting reading here:

https://www.census.gov/library/stori...s-to-slow.html

A quote, emphasis mine

"Population change at the national level stems from natural increase (the difference between births and deaths) and international migration (the movement of people into and out of the United States).

So far this decade, natural increase has been the largest source of population growth for the nation.

In 2019, natural increase dropped to 957,000, marking the first time in at least four decades that it slipped below a million, continuing the trend toward fewer births and more deaths."
Not really clear on your actual point ???????????????
Humm ? "So far this decade, natural increase has been the largest source of population growth for the nation." Doesn't really quell the concern for me .............. the article also the population increased "0.5% Annual Growth to 328.2M".

I do find "natural increase dropped" as sort of funny contradiction in terms though
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Last edited by KevWind; 06-16-2021 at 04:50 PM.
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  #38  
Old 06-16-2021, 04:58 PM
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Originally Posted by KevWind View Post
Not really clear on your actual point ???????????????
Humm ? "So far this decade, natural increase has been the largest source of population growth for the nation." Doesn't really quell the concern for me .............. the article also the population increased "0.5% Annual Growth to 328.2M".

I do find "natural increase dropped" as sort of funny contradiction in terms though
My point is that, if the trend toward fewer births and more deaths continues, eventually it will flip and the population will start to decline.

This is for the US only, of course. If you want to take on the Census Bureau, have at it - Iím done
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  #39  
Old 06-16-2021, 10:37 PM
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My point is that, if the trend toward fewer births and more deaths continues, eventually it will flip and the population will start to decline.

This is for the US only, of course. If you want to take on the Census Bureau, have at it - I’m done
Don't be silly, I'm not taking on the census bureau . Simply pointing out it ain't happening yet, or even soon, and Even If and When, ain't necessarily a bad thing either,,, Juss sayin' ...... Where I live with people it's "less is more" ,,, of course YMMV


Now back to our regularly scheduled programing ;;;
Record heat wave may trigger first ever water shortage declaration
https://interestingengineering.com/u...lower%20basin.
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Last edited by KevWind; 06-17-2021 at 11:52 AM.
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