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  #91  
Old 03-25-2020, 09:46 PM
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A glimmer of good news from Italy today. For the second day in a row the rate of spread of the virus has slightly slowed its rate. It is a sign that isolating the population now for a couple of weeks may have begun to slow the rate of infection spread. Similarly, N.Y. City has gone from doubling cases every 2 days to slowing ever so slightly so that the current numbers may show a doubling every 3.5-4 days. Still huge growth but maybe, just maybe, the rate of spread might be slowing slightly again due to "locking down" and staying home. Let's see. Other states, unfortunately, are beginning to expand - but many of them have already implemented stay at home orders to slow the expansion.
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Old 03-25-2020, 10:28 PM
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Ok. You are the Czar of the United States. How would you have directed your subjects since January 15 with the information that was available each step of the way?
Not sure anyone knew or had the foresight to do anything in January. But, when Italy locked down, the entire world should have taken note.
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  #93  
Old 03-25-2020, 10:31 PM
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A glimmer of good news from Italy today. For the second day in a row the rate of spread of the virus has slightly slowed its rate. It is a sign that isolating the population now for a couple of weeks may have begun to slow the rate of infection spread. Similarly, N.Y. City has gone from doubling cases every 2 days to slowing ever so slightly so that the current numbers may show a doubling every 3.5-4 days. Still huge growth but maybe, just maybe, the rate of spread might be slowing slightly again due to "locking down" and staying home. Let's see. Other states, unfortunately, are beginning to expand - but many of them have already implemented stay at home orders to slow the expansion.
Unfortunately, Florida is not one of them. Yes, the stay at home orders will help, but we want the growth factor to decrease. It will still increase for some time.

On that note, I don't know if anyone has realized, but the US should not only going to pass Italy in a day or two for most cases, we might pass China as well in a couple of days and take the number 1 spot which is not good. The US already has the most active cases by quite a margin.
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  #94  
Old 03-25-2020, 10:40 PM
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The Weather Channel just added a ďCOVID-19 trackerĒ to its app. It will use your location to identify your state, then give you a graph of the increase in your state totals. It tells me that in my State of North Carolina, there are now just over 500 confirmed cases. It will also count the deaths. So far there arenít any here but that wonít last for long unfortunately.
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Old 03-25-2020, 10:47 PM
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The Weather Channel just added a ďCOVID-19 trackerĒ to its app. It will use your location to identify your state, then give you a graph of the increase in your state totals. It tells me that in my State of North Carolina, there are now just over 500 confirmed cases. It will also count the deaths. So far there arenít any here but that wonít last for long unfortunately.
Your state is doing well so far, but 2 have died up until now:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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  #96  
Old 03-26-2020, 12:15 AM
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Originally Posted by robj144
On that note, I don't know if anyone has realized, but the US should not only going to pass Italy in a day or two for most cases, we might pass China as well in a couple of days and take the number 1 spot which is not good. The US already has the most active cases by quite a margin.
If China numbers are to be believed, USA will be surpassing them in the next 36 hours.

Perhaps the most troubling thing I've seen during this ordeal thus far - are the reports of the loss of 21 million Chinese cellphone users in the last 12 weeks.
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Old 03-26-2020, 05:17 AM
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Actually, people are paying way too much attention to the mortality rate and I've been saying this from the get go. It's a novel virus, so the from purely a mathematical standpoint, the number of cases would and are growing exponentially. Now, it doesn't matter what the mortality rate is really. The number of deaths will also grow exponentially as well... and yes it does vary. But, the point is you don't want a virus killing people at a exponential rate ever.
Agree you donít want anything to kill people in an exponential number but it happens all the time. For example as life expectancy goes up so does cancer death rates. As the people of the US get heavier diabetes death rates and complications goes up.

Deaths rates are exactly what we should be looking at. Iíll say it again. The vast majority of people infected will be fine. It will next to impossible to flatten the infected rate given population densities. The virus will have to run its course. The more you test the more positives you will have. The majority of people that have tested positive do fine. What is the percentage of deaths based on the positive test numbers?

Oh and there are way more people positive that we do not know about, because they exhibit minimal symptoms and therefore do not get tested.

If you have 100000 tests and 100 test positive and out of that 100, 10 die, what is the mortality rate. All we are being fed are the number of positives and the death rate. Itís not in perspective.

Also again, I do not take this lightly and I have / worry about the at risk population.
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  #98  
Old 03-26-2020, 05:38 AM
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Something seems extraordinary about this event...



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  #99  
Old 03-26-2020, 05:40 AM
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This thread has gone a long way, guys. Let's keep it on track.
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Old 03-26-2020, 07:38 AM
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Originally Posted by HodgdonExtreme View Post
If China numbers are to be believed, USA will be surpassing them in the next 36 hours.

Perhaps the most troubling thing I've seen during this ordeal thus far - are the reports of the loss of 21 million Chinese cellphone users in the last 12 weeks.
After looking into the cell phones, it's probably due to a number of people adopting 5G over there and the fact many have a personal cell and a cell for work in which they probably canceled their work phone.
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  #101  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:51 AM
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Agree you donít want anything to kill people in an exponential number but it happens all the time. For example as life expectancy goes up so does cancer death rates. As the people of the US get heavier diabetes death rates and complications goes up.

Deaths rates are exactly what we should be looking at. Iíll say it again. The vast majority of people infected will be fine. It will next to impossible to flatten the infected rate given population densities. The virus will have to run its course. The more you test the more positives you will have. The majority of people that have tested positive do fine. What is the percentage of deaths based on the positive test numbers?

Oh and there are way more people positive that we do not know about, because they exhibit minimal symptoms and therefore do not get tested.

If you have 100000 tests and 100 test positive and out of that 100, 10 die, what is the mortality rate. All we are being fed are the number of positives and the death rate. Itís not in perspective.

Also again, I do not take this lightly and I have / worry about the at risk population.
You make some good points, and it is true that most need not worry about dying from this.

HOWEVER, it isn not true that it is impossible to flatten the curve given population densities; what happened in China (Wuhan did poorly because they were slow to restrict contact, while other nearby areas with similar densities acted much earlier, and their infection rate and death rate was much lower. And you may recall other posts in other threads that pointed to infection rates in neighboring states where one acted and one did not (IIRC, there was a graph comparing Tennessee and Kentucky).


Further, you do not (in my opinion) give enough attention to the critical point of "flattening the curve": the goal is to more evenly distribute the number of people seeking care, to avoid flooding the hospitals, because when hospitals are overwhelmed with cases, it most certainly increases the death rate for the virus.

One of the big differences between the "ordinary" causes of death (motor vehicle accidents, the flu) that are often mentioned, and this virus is that it spreads more efficiently and faster than the flu, and more often requires care in a hospital...both of which predict a rather sudden peak of illness and death in relatively focused areas (if social distancing is not strictly observed). Motor vehicle accidents tend to be much more widely distributed in time and location than this virus. And this virus is much more likely to manifest sudden peaks of the illness requiring hospitalization in "hot zones" (like NYC right now) than is an ordinary flu.

Maybe you and I won't go to the hospital, if we are lucky. And most people who go to the hospital won't die from this. I do pray that those who go to the hospital can get the care they need...which is the primary reason I am distancing, and writing about the value of distancing.
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  #102  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:52 AM
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Originally Posted by HodgdonExtreme View Post
If China numbers are to be believed, USA will be surpassing them in the next 36 hours.

Perhaps the most troubling thing I've seen during this ordeal thus far - are the reports of the loss of 21 million Chinese cellphone users in the last 12 weeks.
I must be missing some implication here...I don't find the loss of cell phone users to be so troubling.
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  #103  
Old 03-26-2020, 08:06 AM
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I must be missing some implication here...I don't find the loss of cell phone users to be so troubling.
Where did they go? China is actually *more* dependent on their phones than Americans.

Do you expect USA to lose ~5M cellphone users over the course of the next 10-12 weeks? (USA is ~25% population of China, and 5M is ~25% of 21M).
  #104  
Old 03-26-2020, 08:13 AM
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This thread has gone a long way, guys. Let's keep it on track.
Yes please. This is primarily for updating numbers and COVID-specific information. If we can stay on point, and remain policy-neutral, we can keep going.

I would only ask that the Mods keep eyes on those who would seek to derail and handle those on a case-by-case basis. Keep calm and isolate on.
As Kerbie and others know - if I can refrain from the emotional retorts and unnecessary responses, all of you can.
  #105  
Old 03-26-2020, 08:18 AM
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Where did they go? China is actually *more* dependent on their phones than Americans.

Do you expect USA to lose ~5M cellphone users over the course of the next 10-12 weeks? (USA is ~25% population of China, and 5M is ~25% of 21M).
Read my post. How they use cell phones is much different than here.
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