#211
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
Birx says government is classifying all deaths of patients with coronavirus as 'COVID-19' deaths, regardless of cause https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bir...dless-of-cause Last edited by TJE; 04-07-2020 at 09:42 PM. Reason: More information |
#212
|
|||
|
|||
Related to my mentioning our troubles getting masks, this morning there's news that the federal government is seizing some medical supply orders but not yet knowledge of where it's going.
I know it's not exactly same but when 911 occurred my telco related job was essential and now I'm in food supply. In very short order for the earlier incident there were offices set up in our state capitol building getting regular and consistent communication. This has a lot of parallels where we a business look for the right thing to do, and also get instructions but now the organization and finding any consistency is a mess by comparison. Now we're getting customers mad that we don't have masks and are supposed to. This highest bidder scenario seems very wrong for public health. We should be able to get the masks without it breaking the bank because the grocery stores are a constant stream of people still getting out and close.
__________________
ƃuoɹʍ llɐ ʇno əɯɐɔ ʇɐɥʇ |
#213
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
__________________
1950 Martin 00-18 RainSong Concert Hybrid Orchestra Model 12 Fret Eastman E20OOSS. Strandberg Boden Original 6 Eastman T185MX G&L ASAT Classic USA Butterscotch Blonde Rickenbacher Lap Steel Voyage-Air VAD-2 Martin SW00-DB Machiche 1968 Guild F-112 Taylor 322e 12 Fret V Class |
#214
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
That being said, aren't the N95 masks made in China?
__________________
(2006) Larrivee OM-03R, (2009) Martin D-16GT, (1998) Fender Am Std Ash Stratocaster, (2013) McKnight McUke, (1989) Kramer Striker ST600, a couple of DIY builds (2013, 2023) |
#215
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
Doesn't seem that for-profit health is the common denominator amongst those struggling. |
#216
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
While I personally think there is a place for private health insurance, like my Kaiser supplemental for Medicare, our current for profit system, coupled with an inadequate public health system, makes responding to a crisis like Covid-19 extremely complicated, as we are seeing in the competition for supplies that are driving prices upward.
__________________
1950 Martin 00-18 RainSong Concert Hybrid Orchestra Model 12 Fret Eastman E20OOSS. Strandberg Boden Original 6 Eastman T185MX G&L ASAT Classic USA Butterscotch Blonde Rickenbacher Lap Steel Voyage-Air VAD-2 Martin SW00-DB Machiche 1968 Guild F-112 Taylor 322e 12 Fret V Class |
#217
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
|
#218
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
In terms of health resources and allocations - every country that wasn't able to instantly quell the outbreak is dealing with shortages and delays - regardless what sort of system they have. I just don't see any connection whatsoever between public/private health system and success/failure treating the infected, just take a look at total cases per 1 million population, or deaths/1M pop... The USA does not stick out as "bad", relative to what's happening elsewhere. Last edited by HodgdonExtreme; 04-08-2020 at 01:34 PM. |
#219
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
Being such an info junkie, you are right about health care system issues but I'm recalling all the guidelines, regulations, suggestions and resources within a few weeks of "911", the anthrax scenario right after, and now. In the earlier time I mention here, in a hurry there was a federal and state staffed office that had guidelines and resources to help. For our industry and among health people I know, early February was an alarm and built concern. We've been on our own except for local public health departments and a consultant. Unlike that earlier time lots of willful and spiteful ignorance have made it even harder to prepare let alone what I said about our latest issue of getting masks. I confess these are different scenarios but the anthrax thing happened right after the attack. They were and are all incidents that impacted and scared lots of people. Twice being in essential positions - telecom and food - they feel very different. Edit: My daughter just made me some masks with bandanas folded over a few times around her hair bands. That's the best I can do having to be in the stores at scheduled and unscheduled emergencies. Everyone still goes to our stores. It's pathetic that big and expensive efforts are only getting us a fraction of the masks we should have.
__________________
ƃuoɹʍ llɐ ʇno əɯɐɔ ʇɐɥʇ |
#220
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
__________________
1950 Martin 00-18 RainSong Concert Hybrid Orchestra Model 12 Fret Eastman E20OOSS. Strandberg Boden Original 6 Eastman T185MX G&L ASAT Classic USA Butterscotch Blonde Rickenbacher Lap Steel Voyage-Air VAD-2 Martin SW00-DB Machiche 1968 Guild F-112 Taylor 322e 12 Fret V Class |
#221
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
So, that's about 60k which seems reasonable now... unless the average is much more than 2k over the next two weeks. The other thing that worries me slightly is that if people aren't social distancing in other areas outside of the northeast, there might be a second explosion like the northeast and we could have two peaks. Hopefully, this does not happen though.
__________________
Guild CO-2 Guild JF30-12 Guild D55 Goodall Grand Concert Cutaway Walnut/Italian Spruce Santa Cruz Brazilian VJ Taylor 8 String Baritone Blueberry - Grand Concert Magnum Opus J450 Eastman AJ815 Parker PA-24 Babicz Jumbo Identity Walden G730 Silvercreek T170 Charvell 150 SC Takimine G406s |
#222
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
I’m glad I’m not the only one who doesn’t understand their model. I looked at this for the first time yesterday and Italy seemed off the mark even retroactively. Meaning they hadn’t updated the numbers. Maybe I’m reading their charts wrong but they seem overly optimistic and possibly disconnected from the latest numbers. |
#223
|
|||
|
|||
Regardless of what type of health-care system a country has, it all comes down to money. Other countries have budget issues too.
States have set-up emergency operations centers. The difference this time is the emergency is all over the country, not localized in one state or region. They have also learned not to spend state money (like stocking up supplies or maintaining expertise) when they know the feds will bail them out. Last edited by Acousticado; 04-08-2020 at 04:38 PM. Reason: Political |
#224
|
|||
|
|||
I'm not an actuarian, and there are a lot of nuances to this whole thing that I don't understand - particularly how to forecast the "herd immunity" phenomenon...
But here's my own personal model data - that seems in line with what the real experts are saying. I've been updating my spreadsheet with daily new cases, which in turn updates total cases. Aside from one small dip that lasted 2-3 days, you can see that daily new cases is highly linear, and very equal slope both before and after "the dip". Note that the graph is based on real data ONLY up to April 8. The rest of the graph is forecasted. Using the equation of the linear "New Cases Today" graph, I plugged that into the future days of "Total Cases", to forecast into the future. Again, note that data is actual numbers until TODAY, everything afterwards is based on the forecast: Projected death: I took total cases, by day, and tried different multipliers until I found one that matched real death numbers SO FAR. That number ended up being 3%. So, assuming that 3% of total cases result in death, here my projected death forecast. Note these are ALL calculated numbers and NOT actual. However, you can compare my numbers to real ones and see that my calculation works well - at least up until today. Who knows what future brings? I repeat, I'm not an expert in the field, just somebody that internalizes things their own way, by working through the numbers themself. My model provides NO means of slowing this thing down - which is clearly incorrect... The whole "herd immunity" thing and all. But, we're a long ways away from that phenomenon kicking in, so this ~2 month projection is probably not that far off. |
#225
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
We won't have herd immunity for a while. By the way, your model doesn't show how it stops because it's projecting what's happening now. But, the "model" should be changing in a week or so.
__________________
Guild CO-2 Guild JF30-12 Guild D55 Goodall Grand Concert Cutaway Walnut/Italian Spruce Santa Cruz Brazilian VJ Taylor 8 String Baritone Blueberry - Grand Concert Magnum Opus J450 Eastman AJ815 Parker PA-24 Babicz Jumbo Identity Walden G730 Silvercreek T170 Charvell 150 SC Takimine G406s |