COVID-19 CASES INCREASING

[why2]

I found this an interesting read from a couple of days ago.

‘End Of Coronavirus Pandemic Is Near’: Nobel Laureate Michael Levitt Says It Will Disappear From China By March End

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/end-of...a-by-march-end

why2

[Blueser100]

Originally Posted by Tracerbullet

Agree you don’t want anything to kill people in an exponential number but it happens all the time. For example as life expectancy goes up so does cancer death rates. As the people of the US get heavier diabetes death rates and complications goes up.

Deaths rates are exactly what we should be looking at. I’ll say it again. The vast majority of people infected will be fine. It will next to impossible to flatten the infected rate given population densities. The virus will have to run its course. The more you test the more positives you will have. The majority of people that have tested positive do fine. What is the percentage of deaths based on the positive test numbers?

Oh and there are way more people positive that we do not know about, because they exhibit minimal symptoms and therefore do not get tested.

If you have 100000 tests and 100 test positive and out of that 100, 10 die, what is the mortality rate. All we are being fed are the number of positives and the death rate. It’s not in perspective.

Also again, I do not take this lightly and I have / worry about the at risk population.

Another reason to abide by safer at home and self-isolation as much as possible and take care of your health in other ways, e.g., diet, exercises, etc. is that our hospitals are in a crisis of understaffing, under supplied, and first responders who are getting sick from coronavirus. This is why the Navy is sending the USS Mercy to our shores here in So Cal tomorrow.

[Dirk Hofman]

Originally Posted by why2

I found this an interesting read from a couple of days ago.

‘End Of Coronavirus Pandemic Is Near’: Nobel Laureate Michael Levitt Says It Will Disappear From China By March End

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/end-of...a-by-march-end

why2

If you read his full comments in the LA Times, he makes clear that this entirely depends on populations isolating and taking strong measures to control the virus.

[HodgdonExtreme]

Originally Posted by robj144

Read my post. How they use cell phones is much different than here.

Your theory is much more palatable than others I've heard. I hope you're right.

[why2]

Originally Posted by Dirk Hofman

If you read his full comments in the LA Times, he makes clear that this entirely depends on populations isolating and taking strong measures to control the virus.

Understood.

[HodgdonExtreme]

This website has purchased American's mobile device GPS data and created a map indicating recent travel/mobility. You can click on a state and see a county-by county breakdown as well:

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/soci...ing-scoreboard

An "A" rating in blue is 40% or more reduction in travel
A "B" rating in green is 30-40% reduction
A "C" rating in brownish green is 20-30% reduction
A "D" rating in light orange is 10-20% reduction
An "F" rating in bright orange is 0-10% reduction

Here is screenshot of all-up USA map:

[gitarro]

Originally Posted by Tracerbullet

Agree you don’t want anything to kill people in an exponential number but it happens all the time. For example as life expectancy goes up so does cancer death rates. As the people of the US get heavier diabetes death rates and complications goes up.

Deaths rates are exactly what we should be looking at. I’ll say it again. The vast majority of people infected will be fine. It will next to impossible to flatten the infected rate given population densities. The virus will have to run its course. The more you test the more positives you will have. The majority of people that have tested positive do fine. What is the percentage of deaths based on the positive test numbers?

Oh and there are way more people positive that we do not know about, because they exhibit minimal symptoms and therefore do not get tested.

If you have 100000 tests and 100 test positive and out of that 100, 10 die, what is the mortality rate. All we are being fed are the number of positives and the death rate. It’s not in perspective.

Also again, I do not take this lightly and I have / worry about the at risk population.

Are you implying that the danger may be overstated by the possibility that the actual number of infected people are many times the official numbers? Perhaps you wonder if a lockdown is necessary...

The problem is that the exceeding high number of deaths in italy which overloaded their medical system were caused by an initially poor response to the crisis with the population initially taking it lightly and the lockdown imposed fairly late. It is only now that the deaths are starting to reduce daily which is probably caused by the effects of the lockdown.

So regardless of the actual mortality rate, if social distancing and lockdown are not done expeditiously, the medical system of even an advanced country like italy that had twice the icu beds per capita as the united kingdom would be overloaded in short order by this pandemic.

[Tracerbullet]

Originally Posted by gitarro

Are you implying that the danger may be overstated by the possibility that the actual number of infected people are many times the official numbers? Perhaps you wonder if a lockdown is necessary...

The problem is that the exceeding high number of deaths in italy which overloaded their medical system were caused by an initially poor response to the crisis with the population initially taking it lightly and the lockdown imposed fairly late. It is only now that the deaths are starting to reduce daily which is probably caused by the effects of the lockdown.

So regardless of the actual mortality rate, if social distancing and lockdown are not done expeditiously, the medical system of even an advanced country like italy that had twice the icu beds per capita as the united kingdom would be overloaded in short order by this pandemic.

I don’t disagree. All I was stating is that the news and conversation is based on positive test numbers and mortality but we tend to lose sight of the overall picture of the virus, and the negative test numbers, Overall positives versus sickness and morbidity.

You are correct the overloading of the system is the worry. Hospitals are a business, I know I spent almost 40 years in the field. Everyday hospitals strive to work at max capacity. Max capacity means revenue. There is no leeway to accommodate for a large influx of patients. Even during a large natural disaster. Everyday the negative is all over the news and conversations.
I try to keep the positive, as any health care worker does, there still is a very small percentage of people that test positive getting sick to the point of needing a respirator, or dying.

[Dirk Hofman]

Originally Posted by HodgdonExtreme

This website has purchased American's mobile device GPS data and created a map indicating recent travel/mobility. You can click on a state and see a county-by county breakdown as well:

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/soci...ing-scoreboard

An "A" rating in blue is 40% or more reduction in travel
A "B" rating in green is 30-40% reduction
A "C" rating in brownish green is 20-30% reduction
A "D" rating in light orange is 10-20% reduction
An "F" rating in bright orange is 0-10% reduction

I love data, this is awesome, thanks for posting!

[buddyhu]

From an article in today's Boston Globe:

"“The point of imposing these measures is to bring the outbreak under control to a level where we can control it with the kind of testing and isolation strategy that we see in South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan,” he said. “So I think what we need to do is take the steps that we’re taking now and understand that for them to work it’s going be more like four or five or six weeks.”

And keep in mind infected people can carry the virus for several days before showing any signs of illness. Research indicates the incubation period for COVID-19 is between two and 14 days after exposure. Say you were infected right before your mandated 14-day period of isolation. If your symptoms arrived on day 10, you would still be contagious even after emerging from your temporary solitude.
“As soon as you impose those restrictions on people, it’s not really that it’s 14 days, it’s 14 days until everybody that was already exposed could become sick,” Scarpino explained. “So it’s really more like a month or more you would have to physically lock everybody down in order to have this go away. And the situation is, we already are having a lot of of trouble maintaining the social and political will to implement the measures we’ve done in the US.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/...ews:newsletter

[Dirk Hofman]

Richard Dawkins tweeted this out just now, some hopeful news about a drug called Remdesivir.

Remdesivir Works Against Coronaviruses in the Lab
The antiviral disables RNA replication machinery in MERS and SARS viruses. Can it beat back SARS-CoV-2?

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-o...-the-lab-67298

[Neil K Walk]

#hopingnothoping

[robj144]

Originally Posted by buddyhu

From an article in today's Boston Globe:

"“The point of imposing these measures is to bring the outbreak under control to a level where we can control it with the kind of testing and isolation strategy that we see in South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan,” he said. “So I think what we need to do is take the steps that we’re taking now and understand that for them to work it’s going be more like four or five or six weeks.”

And keep in mind infected people can carry the virus for several days before showing any signs of illness. Research indicates the incubation period for COVID-19 is between two and 14 days after exposure. Say you were infected right before your mandated 14-day period of isolation. If your symptoms arrived on day 10, you would still be contagious even after emerging from your temporary solitude.
“As soon as you impose those restrictions on people, it’s not really that it’s 14 days, it’s 14 days until everybody that was already exposed could become sick,” Scarpino explained. “So it’s really more like a month or more you would have to physically lock everybody down in order to have this go away. And the situation is, we already are having a lot of of trouble maintaining the social and political will to implement the measures we’ve done in the US.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/...ews:newsletter

Yes, this is pretty obvious and it's why the whole country should have shut down when we got a hint it was starting.

[robj144]

US is about to be number 1 in total cases in a few hours.

[ManyMartinMan]

Originally Posted by robj144

US is about to be number 1 in total cases in a few hours.

Yep. We have several states in the "top ten" that haven't reported in yet today.