Italy - duration of lockdown & 24 March numbers

[robj144]

Originally Posted by Peter Wilcox

Maybe some good news for Italy (as of yesterday - higher today unfortunately, but time will tell.)



But not so much for USA and the rest.

https://www.usnews.com/news/healthie...analysis-shows

US is riding the upper envelope after today's numbers.

[gitarro]

Wet markets are open air markets and are a part of life not only in China but all over Asia. They are probably prevalent around t world in fact. Despite that they do not usually spawn pandemics. The peculiar issue about the wuhan market was the presence of a exotic meat market where live examples of different species of wild animals were being confined in close proximity to each other thus allowing diseases to pass between them and to humans. That factor is not found in almost all wet markets.

Originally Posted by Dirk Hofman

I had a similar reaction to the notion of blame. I think it's fairly pointless as that ship has sailed and it serves little practical purpose, and can and has resulted in cultural animosity. As you mention diseases have come from all kinds of places where humans + humans or humans + animals have come into close contact.

That said I don't think that was CoffeeFan's central point.

Beyond that, there are very real concerns about what is to be done about Chinese "wet markets" going forward. From what I've read and watched, they're less a "cultural" phenomenon, and more a result of specific economic policies put in place by the Chinese government in the 70's in response to widespread famine in that country. The Wuhan market has been specifically shut down, and amendments to the policy have been put in place to restrict them, but many international organizations are calling for an end to the practice because of the ongoing threat it poses to human health. This isn't the first deadly virus spawned of those markets, and it won't be the last if something isn't done. Inaction seems crazy to me.

I found this video very well done and very informative on the topic. I'm sure there is more to learn, but I think it's a good primer.



When a people's culture or economic policies come into conflict with human health and well being, it's not only OK for us to criticize and try and change it, but I think it's our duty. Be sensitive, sure, but we have to be firm as well. This goes for all people, cultures, and economies, not just those in China.

[MChild62]

March 28 - Italy Update

New, currently positive cases: 3,651, down from 4,401 yesterday. Today there were 889 reported deaths from COVID-19 vs 969 deaths. Of those who passed away in the past 24 hours, 542 were in the Lombardy region. One good number that seems to be rising is those who have recovered and have been dismissed from hospitals, with 1434 over the past 24 hours bring to a total of 12,384 recovered/dismissed vs 10,023 deaths.

To date, 429,526 tests have been administered, currently at the rate of 35,000 per day, currently increasing 8% each day.

http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/a...c82fe38d4138b1

Angelo Borelli, the head of the Civil Protection Authority, returned to lead the evening press conference with the announcement of the day's numbers. He had been missing a few days as a result of a fever and being tested for COVID-19, which was negative.

When asked about "re-opening the country," which former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi recently advocated should take place for factories before Easter and schools on May 4, Borelli said that it's too early to provide any predictions. Borelli said the government will be assessing the situation in the coming days. The current lockdown is in place until April 3, and is then subject to extension or modification. Not to defend (or join the criticism of) Renzi, but he appears to have advocated a "new normal" of re-opening with masks, gloves, and maintaining social distance. He said that if we wait for a vaccine, which could be a year or more away, the risk is to die of hunger instead of the virus.
https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2...ole-252538917/

[DenverSteve]

I'm seeing Italy is reporting over 70,000 active cases with 3,856 serious/critical reporting. The chart you posted shows 92,472 total cases with 12,384 healed meaning 70,088 active. Italy is reporting 5,974 new cases today.

[MChild62]

Originally Posted by DenverSteve

I'm seeing Italy is reporting over 70,000 active cases with 3,856 serious/critical reporting.

Yes, exactly. Also, I neglected to mention that in this evening's press conference, Borelli said that Germany has taken 12 critically-ill patients from Bergamo to a hospital in Koln, as they have done previously, for which gratitude was expressed for the support being provided to Italy.

In the attached chart with today's numbers by region, and totals at the bottom:
first yellow column: in hospital with symptoms
2nd yellow column: intensive care
3d yellow column: positives under home quarantine
4th yellow column: total currently positive
Green column: discharted/cured
Red column: deceased
Orange: total cases
Grey: tests
Screen Shot 2020-03-28 at 6.56.32 PM.jpg
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/...i-20200328.pdf

[Peter Wilcox]

If you go the the JHU site and click on a country name on the left, and on the Daily Increase tab in the lower right, you can see that Italy, Spain and France look like they're finally bending the curve, at least in new cases. Of course, this could possibly be skewed by testing procedures, but it's looking encouraging that lockdowns are starting to work with the projected 2 week lag.

[robj144]

Originally Posted by Peter Wilcox

If you go the the JHU site and click on a country name on the left, and on the Daily Increase tab in the lower right, you can see that Italy, Spain and France look like they're finally bending the curve, at least in new cases. Of course, this could possibly be skewed by testing procedures, but it's looking encouraging that lockdowns are starting to work with the projected 2 week lag.

Well, it's gone from exponential growth to linear which is good, but it needs to start decreasing.

Italy is worrisome for the US. The US' lockdown procedure so far as not nearly as effective as Italy's and Italy's hasn't even started to decrease yet. We haven't hit peak yet in US and the plateau for the US will last a lot longer.

[Peter Wilcox]

Originally Posted by robj144

Well, it's gone from exponential growth to linear which is good, but it needs to start decreasing.

Well, that's what bending the curve is - from exponential to linear increase in new cases (with a positive slope), then to a slope of zero (same number of new cases per time period), then to a negative slope (fewer new cases per time period).

At least according to that site it looks like Italy's slope is going negative - fewer new cases each day.

[DenverSteve]

Our lock downs started later than Italy. Also it will take a while for the Mardi-Gras, Spring Break and lock down delay to appear.

[robj144]

Originally Posted by Peter Wilcox

Well, that's what bending the curve is - from exponential to linear increase in new cases (with a positive slope), then to a slope of zero (same number of new cases per time period), then to a negative slope (fewer new cases per time period).

At least according to that site it looks like Italy's slope is going negative - fewer new cases each day.

Here it looks like it's still on the plateau here and not decreasing in any trend:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/

This is what I'm focusing on... how long does the plateau last before it starts to decrease? Because the US has been far less stringent with its protocol and that plateau AFTER the peak will most likely last longer in the US.

[MChild62]

From the same site, here is curve of new, current positives each day in Italy from 24 February to 28 March.

Screen Shot 2020-03-28 at 11.27.59 PM.jpg

Although the lockdown in the northern regions started earlier, the national lockdown went into effect March 9 and enforcement was gradually tightened.
During this same period, testing has been increasing each day (currently 36,000 per day).

It seems that the social distancing efforts are having an impact, but there's definitely a lag of around 12 days. Since enforcement was tightened a week ago, we should hopefully see greater benefits in a week.

To help people get through this, the government today announced additional financial support to those who do not have jobs and a program of food cards for those most in need to purchase essential items, with supermarkets agreeing to apply a further 10% discount on purchases made with the cards.

[Peter Wilcox]

Originally Posted by robj144

Here it looks like it's still on the plateau here and not decreasing in any trend:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/

This is what I'm focusing on... how long does the plateau last before it starts to decrease? Because the US has been far less stringent with its protocol and that plateau AFTER the peak will most likely last longer in the US.

Look at the graph there of daily new cases - it looks like MChild's graph above, and looks to me like it's probably starting to decrease. Time will tell.

Unfortunately in the USA, since there is no real lockdown and mainly just stay at home protocols, there will likely be a higher peak and a longer delay before we start to see a decrease in daily new cases.

[David Eastwood]

Originally Posted by Peter Wilcox

Look at the graph there of daily new cases - it looks like MChild's graph above, and looks to me like it's probably starting to decrease. Time will tell.

Unfortunately in the USA, since there is no real lockdown and mainly just stay at home protocols, there will likely be a higher peak and a longer delay before we start to see a decrease in daily new cases.

It's also important to factor in drastically reduced mobility across the country in the light of work-at-home policies, corporate travel bans, and drastically reduced recreational travel.

I'd suggest that there's a case for looking at the US much more like Europe than as a monolithic whole.

[robj144]

Originally Posted by eatswodo

It's also important to factor in drastically reduced mobility across the country in the light of work-at-home policies, corporate travel bans, and drastically reduced recreational travel.

I'd suggest that there's a case for looking at the US much more like Europe than as a monolithic whole.

Yes, but the lockdown in Italy is much more strict than in the US. There are a little half measures in the US.

[Peter Wilcox]

Originally Posted by eatswodo

I'd suggest that there's a case for looking at the US much more like Europe than as a monolithic whole.

Absolutely. But who is going to tell people they can't travel from one place (state) to another as they flee the hot spots they live in? The course of the disease will be much more protracted in the USA, unless there is a game-changing medical advance..

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/worl...ots-ny-nj-and/