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  #16  
Old 03-25-2020, 11:35 AM
MChild62 MChild62 is offline
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25 March Update - Italy

For the fourth consecutive day, the number of new, currently positive cases has decreased. Five days ago there were 4,821 new cases, which will hopefully have been our peak. Today there were 3,491. (New, currently positive cases is a subset of the "total new cases".)

A total of 324,445 tests have been given so far, with 74,386 total positives. The total death rate is now 7,503, adding 683 today, still very high.

Keep in mind that we are in a national lockdown since 10 March but with stricter enforcement over the past week. The incubation period is up to 14 days (some say up to 20), so the benefits of the lockdown take time to see the effect. The lockdown remains in place until April 3, and then will be reassessed.

Link (graph of new cases is "Incremento giornaliero degli attualmente positivi")
pendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b0c68bce2cce478eaac82fe38d4138b1
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  #17  
Old 03-25-2020, 11:36 AM
Silly Moustache Silly Moustache is offline
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Originally Posted by MChild62 View Post
For those interested in developments in Italy, ... snip ...
Hi, of course we are interested in developments elsewhere and thank you for your update.

Spain is in the news now with higher numbers than China.

Here in the UK we are a little behind you, maybe 3 weeks but we are now in lockdown, suddenly with no warning on Tuesday.

Well, we were warned, frequently but people didn't all take it seriously enough so there it is.

People can moan and grumble about the government's change of approach but it is what it is.

Currently we are allowed out for essential reasons, such as medical and to buy food and collect meds only.

The trains and underground in London were still packed full yesterday.

Our government has announced the most shocking financial assistance to businesses and employees which will hopefully prevent many businesses failing and massive unemployment.

A large exhibition hall in London is being converted to a hospital for 4000 beds.

Keep us informed please - stay safe.
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  #18  
Old 03-25-2020, 11:45 AM
CoffeeFan CoffeeFan is offline
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Originally Posted by rokdog49 View Post
Sorry but Taipei, Taiwan is way worse and its 24/7. Those are 99% locals too.
I'm not sure what point you're making.

It's my opinion that Italy has contributed more to the spread of the virus (not knowingly, of course) than any other country. I'm willing to bet that Italy sees a LOT more tourism than Taipei does.

And I don't know what the "24/7" is in reference to...
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  #19  
Old 03-25-2020, 11:52 AM
Silly Moustache Silly Moustache is offline
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Originally Posted by CoffeeFan View Post
Had a conversation with a friend last night over cigars and some Maker's.

Everyone seems to want to blame China for this. Well, yeah, I guess I understand that, since that's where it originated. But I don't believe China is responsible for the ridiculously widespread attack of Covid-19.

I give that distinction to Italy.

I visited Italy last April. I based out of Rome and made side trips to Florence, Amalfi, and some other places.

Without hesitation, I can say that Rome is the single most crowded place I have ever been. For people walking through the city (you really don't want to drive in Rome), it easily tops Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco and New York City. But the vast majority of these people aren't Italian. They're people like me: tourists.

Now, for fun, take about 45,000 of them and pack them into the Vatican and St. Peter's Basilica every day. People get packed into the Sistine Chapel like sardines. It's a breeding ground for anything bad that someone may be carrying.

Upwards of 20,000 people a day visit the Colosseum, and a large percentage of those people ride the metro to get there, as there's a stop on the metro specifically for the Colosseum (Colosseo). So, now, go ahead and add into the mix those people who are on the metro and not visiting the Colosseum. Maybe they're going to work or visiting a friend. There's no shortage of Italians on the metro.

Of course, all of these people don't stay in Rome. They go home, like I did. They go home to the United States or England or Russia or South Africa or Spain or... everywhere.

One person carrying Covid-19 from China, visiting Rome, could pass it to half a dozen people encountered through the course of a normal Italian day, and that could be more than enough to kick start a nightmare like this into high gear in pretty short order.

I love Italy and plan on visiting again, but one thing I was acutely aware of while I was there were the sheer volume of people there, and how it would be quite easy to get sick there.

Hindsight, and all that...
Frankly coffeefan, I'm not terribly impressed with the notion of "blame" in this.

Supposedly a wild animal market in Wuhan is where this zoonotic virus was transmitted to humans.
Whilst the notion of a wild animal market in itself is unpleasant to us (well me at least) this is a very different culture, and cannot/should not be judged by our cultural standards.

Likewise Italy is probably a different culture to wherever you may live.

The great plague was spread by infected fleas on ships travelling from country to country.
The so called Spanish flu was spread by the massive amount of European and American soldiers in close proximity at the end of WW1.

Humans in close proximity and possibly close to un-hygienically kept animals also seems to be problematic.

Should we blame the animals? The Chinese? The Italians?
the blame, if blame serves ANY purpose in this, is the numbers of humans, and their herd instinct for flocking together.

I don't think "blame" has any part in this, unless we are referring to those who have acted thoughtlessly in not isolating.
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  #20  
Old 03-25-2020, 11:59 AM
HodgdonExtreme HodgdonExtreme is offline
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I think his point was the rich history, subsequent heavy tourism and close-living in Italy was probably a strong contributor to the spread.

Last edited by HodgdonExtreme; 03-25-2020 at 12:04 PM.
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  #21  
Old 03-25-2020, 12:30 PM
CoffeeFan CoffeeFan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silly Moustache View Post
Frankly coffeefan, I'm not terribly impressed with the notion of "blame" in this.

Supposedly a wild animal market in Wuhan is where this zoonotic virus was transmitted to humans.
Whilst the notion of a wild animal market in itself is unpleasant to us (well me at least) this is a very different culture, and cannot/should not be judged by our cultural standards.

Likewise Italy is probably a different culture to wherever you may live.

The great plague was spread by infected fleas on ships travelling from country to country.
The so called Spanish flu was spread by the massive amount of European and American soldiers in close proximity at the end of WW1.

Humans in close proximity and possibly close to un-hygienically kept animals also seems to be problematic.

Should we blame the animals? The Chinese? The Italians?
the blame, if blame serves ANY purpose in this, is the numbers of humans, and their herd instinct for flocking together.

I don't think "blame" has any part in this, unless we are referring to those who have acted thoughtlessly in not isolating.
My apologies. I wasn't looking to assign blame anywhere, actually. Poor choice of words on my part.

What I should've said is that I believe Italy, perhaps more than any other country, was in a prime position to become the "hub", if you will, for the worldwide spread of the virus.

Yeah, I certainly don't "blame" them...
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  #22  
Old 03-25-2020, 12:30 PM
Dirk Hofman Dirk Hofman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silly Moustache View Post
Frankly coffeefan, I'm not terribly impressed with the notion of "blame" in this.

Supposedly a wild animal market in Wuhan is where this zoonotic virus was transmitted to humans.
Whilst the notion of a wild animal market in itself is unpleasant to us (well me at least) this is a very different culture, and cannot/should not be judged by our cultural standards.
I had a similar reaction to the notion of blame. I think it's fairly pointless as that ship has sailed and it serves little practical purpose, and can and has resulted in cultural animosity. As you mention diseases have come from all kinds of places where humans + humans or humans + animals have come into close contact.

That said I don't think that was CoffeeFan's central point.

Beyond that, there are very real concerns about what is to be done about Chinese "wet markets" going forward. From what I've read and watched, they're less a "cultural" phenomenon, and more a result of specific economic policies put in place by the Chinese government in the 70's in response to widespread famine in that country. The Wuhan market has been specifically shut down, and amendments to the policy have been put in place to restrict them, but many international organizations are calling for an end to the practice because of the ongoing threat it poses to human health. This isn't the first deadly virus spawned of those markets, and it won't be the last if something isn't done. Inaction seems crazy to me.

I found this video very well done and very informative on the topic. I'm sure there is more to learn, but I think it's a good primer.



When a people's culture or economic policies come into conflict with human health and well being, it's not only OK for us to criticize and try and change it, but I think it's our duty. Be sensitive, sure, but we have to be firm as well. This goes for all people, cultures, and economies, not just those in China.
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  #23  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:32 AM
MChild62 MChild62 is offline
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Italy update 26 March 2020:

Not good news. After dropping four days in a row, the number of new "currently positive" cases has gone back up, 4,492 (vs 3,491 yesterday). And deaths still high, 662 today. Total tests administered: 361,060 at a rate now of about 30,000/day.

Was hoping to give better news. But the virus is just everywhere now, and a drop in one region is offset by increases in others. Maybe today is an outlier. If not, then I can't see the lockdown ending on April 3 as planned.

http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/a...c82fe38d4138b1
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  #24  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:48 AM
ManyMartinMan ManyMartinMan is offline
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I actually see an updated Italian reporting of 6153 for today. New York City had a slight dip in new cases for 2 days as well. We'll see how theirs goes. I hope you are still keeping safe.
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  #25  
Old 03-26-2020, 12:01 PM
slide496 slide496 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirk Hofman View Post

Beyond that, there are very real concerns about what is to be done about Chinese "wet markets" going forward. From what I've read and watched, they're less a "cultural" phenomenon, and more a result of specific economic policies put in place by the Chinese government in the 70's in response to widespread famine in that country. The Wuhan market has been specifically shut down, and amendments to the policy have been put in place to restrict them, but many international organizations are calling for an end to the practice because of the ongoing threat it poses to human health. This isn't the first deadly virus spawned of those markets, and it won't be the last if something isn't done. Inaction seems crazy to me.

I found this video very well done and very informative on the topic. I'm sure there is more to learn, but I think it's a good primer.
It is a good primer, thanks. I was aware of the illegal wildlife trade issue but not the history.
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  #26  
Old 03-26-2020, 01:14 PM
MChild62 MChild62 is offline
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Originally Posted by ManyMartinMan View Post
I actually see an updated Italian reporting of 6153 for today. New York City had a slight dip in new cases for 2 days as well. We'll see how theirs goes. I hope you are still keeping safe.
the total, 6,153, is all who have had the virus and, as I understand, would include those who have antibodies but are longer are infected nor contagious, ie, they had the virus at some point in the past. so the number the Ministry is watching is the "new, currently positive" number. That's 4,492 today, which is not as high as a week ago (4,821) but still very high.

there's some speculation that the higher number may be due simply to more testing, over 30,000 per day now, which is a large increase over 20,000 per day last week.
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  #27  
Old 03-26-2020, 01:48 PM
saxonblue saxonblue is offline
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I hope things improve over there soon. Here in Australia we're told we're 3-4 weeks behind Italy on the curve but with a pretty disjointed approach so far as to what stays open/shuts down. We're told we should stay home but at the same time keep going to work as normal but be careful(?)

Anyway here's a link to an episode of Foreign Correspondent (ABC- Australia) from the other night presented by journalist Emma Alberici talking to extended family & friends in northern Italy seeing how their everyday lives are affected as well as talking to senior medical staff caught up in the mayhem & the country's senior medical officer.

It lasts 25 mins but for me it is a sobering indicator of what we could be up against soon. Stay safe.

https://www.abc.net.au/foreign/life-...orona/12086808
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  #28  
Old 03-27-2020, 11:35 AM
MChild62 MChild62 is offline
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March 27 - Italy Update

New, currently positive cases: 4,401, down from 4,992 yesterday. But over 900 deaths. In the evening press conference of the Civil Protection Authority, a journalist asked whether it is true that in Bergamo, the worst hit city, two third of the deaths are going unreported, as the mayor of Bergamo has indicated. No good answer.
http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/a...c82fe38d4138b1

Currently there are 34,500 people who are infected and under orders to remain quarantined at home. The law has been tightened with severe measures for violation, including manslaughter charges with minimum 21 year prison sentence if someone who is quarantined leaves home and infects someone else who dies.

For those interested in the geographic distribution of those infected, those in hospital, and those in critical condition:
by region: https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/...i-20200327.pdf

by municipality: https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/...e-20200326.pdf
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  #29  
Old 03-27-2020, 01:43 PM
CoffeeFan CoffeeFan is offline
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Originally Posted by MChild62 View Post
I the evening press conference of the Civil Protection Authority, a journalist asked whether it is true that in Bergamo, the worst hit city, two third of the deaths are going unreported, as the mayor of Bergamo has indicated. No good answer.
I have a friend who lives in Bergamo.

She's tested negative, but she's hatin' life right now...
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  #30  
Old 03-27-2020, 04:53 PM
Peter Wilcox Peter Wilcox is offline
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Maybe some good news for Italy (as of yesterday - higher today unfortunately, but time will tell.)



But not so much for USA and the rest.

https://www.usnews.com/news/healthie...analysis-shows

Last edited by Peter Wilcox; 03-27-2020 at 04:58 PM.
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