COVID-19 CASES INCREASING

[tbeltrans]

Originally Posted by spike66

Q: How do you identify grizzly stool?

A: Bear Bells.

That is worthy of a Gary Larson cartoon!

Tony

[Otterhound]

Back in September , I was fortunate enough to be in a van with someone that simply didn't care . Everyone in that van got sick . Of course , I got the worst of it with pneumonia and then double pneumonia . Had a fever of 103.5 at one point early on . This was before the Coronavirus. Just a bit of perspective . Fortunately , my ancestors survived the Spanish flu of 1917/18 .

[DenverSteve]

Looking at the curves today, the U.S. is on the same line as Spain and where Italy has already come. Because of the, World Health issued this statement today.

"As coronavirus cases continue to rise in the United States, the nation has "potential" to become the next epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic, Margaret Harris, a spokesperson for the World Health Organization, said during a call with reporters on Tuesday."

Spain has fewer cases than the U.S. but far more deaths. We are on the same line which means 1-2 weeks. Let's stay away from others and stay safe.

[robj144]

Originally Posted by DenverSteve

Looking at the curves today, the U.S. is on the same line as Spain and where Italy has already come. Because of the, World Health issued this statement today.

"As coronavirus cases continue to rise in the United States, the nation has "potential" to become the next epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic, Margaret Harris, a spokesperson for the World Health Organization, said during a call with reporters on Tuesday."

Spain has fewer cases than the U.S. but far more deaths. We are on the same line which means 1-2 weeks. Let's stay away from others and stay safe.

I don't want to be mean, but I'm just pointing something out. Someone in the other threads that was locked was going on about the flu. The numbers aren't pinned down but the flu this year has killed between 100 and 250 per day in the US. I said we'd be at this point in no time which was three days ago and the other poster was not so sure. We're basically already there at 225 deaths today. Tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised if it were over 300 per day.

We're getting in deep here already and as you said, it won't peak for probably 2 weeks.

[Fishermike]

Thinking it will peak in two weeks is wildly optimistic. No reason whatsoever to believe that it will.

We haven’t even got serious about a nationwide lockdown yet, and I see no indication that we will any time soon. The state-by-state lockdowns are nowhere near as strict as the one in Italy, which in turn is nowhere near as strict as the one in China.

This is just getting started in the US. Buckle up, kids. It’s gonna be a bumpy ride.

[DenverSteve]

The issue is that this is far more virulent than the flu strains. What some people (not a lot but still too many) don't understand is that this spreads far faster with 10x the death rate as the flu. Italy, Spain, Iran, China....the U.S. had the flu and this has killed, in 3-4 weeks, half of what the flu did for the entire season. This left unchecked would spread throughout the world likely killing millions. It's not that people don't know about the flu, we track it every year but this is completely different and far, far more deadly.

[DenverSteve]

Originally Posted by Fishermike

Thinking it will peak in two weeks is wildly optimistic. No reason whatsoever to believe that it will. .

It won't. Look at what Mardi Gras did for New Orleans -Louisiana is just now seeing the fastest spread anywhere because the person-to-person contact from Mardi Gras-filled streets is now just showing it's effect. Spring breakers coming out of Texas and Florida - will be 2-3 weeks from now. The charts coming out now show the curves in the U.S. take a precipitous drop in spread just days after states or cities impose a mandatory lock down procedure.

Until all the quickly spreading states - Florida, Texas, Louisiana take state-wide containment policies, those states will infect the surrounding states and it will continue to spread.

[gitarro]

Not only is this virus 10 ro 14 times more deadly than flu, it is also up to 3 times more infectious! To equate it to the common flu is very inappropriate and would result in a level of complacency which would make social distancing an impossibility. This flu has the potential to kill not thousands which it is already doing globally but hundreds of thousands and even millions if it is not fought with focus and perseverance.

[DenverSteve]

What is happening in N.Y. will spread in 2-5 week episodes until it hits most of the country. Here in Colorado there are several counties that are very "hot" and that haven't done much of anything to stop the spread. That will cause a problem state-wide. Denver, Boulder counties are shut down. It looks like Arapahoe, Douglas and Adams (large counties around Denver) may take similar steps in the next few days. Luckily some of our counties out west have thousands of square miles with only hundreds or a few thousand people in the county. Even then, some of these counties are seeing infection.

[DenverSteve]

Anyway, thanks all for keeping this thread civil. If we can continue to get important information out, without discontent, I believe we can help others understand.

[buddyhu]

From a great article that explores the controversy about aggressive containment.

“ It is true that we can’t be sure either how many infections there have been in any population or the risk of needing intensive care or the case fatality rate. These uncertainties are two sides of the same coin. Nonetheless, two things are clear.

“ First, the number of severe cases — the product of these two unknowns — becomes fearsome in country after country if the infection is allowed to spread. In Italy, coffins of Covid-19 victims are accumulating in churches that have stopped holding funerals. In Wuhan, at the peak of the epidemic there, critical cases were so numerous that, if scaled up to the size of the U.S. population, they would have filled every intensive care bed in this country.”

“Second, if we don’t apply control measures, the number of cases will keep going up exponentially beyond the already fearsome numbers we have seen. Scientists have estimated that the basic reproductive number of this virus is around 2. That means without control, case numbers will double, then quadruple, then be eight times as big, and so on, doubling with each “generation” of cases.

To stop an epidemic like that permanently, nearly half the population must be immune. While the exact number of people infected in each population is unknown, current estimates are that for every symptomatic case there is about one asymptomatic or very mild case.”

Read the full article for more details and incisive thinking: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/...inst-covid-19/

[1neeto]

Originally Posted by gitarro

Not only is this virus 10 ro 14 times more deadly than flu, it is also up to 3 times more infectious! To equate it to the common flu is very inappropriate and would result in a level of complacency which would make social distancing an impossibility. This flu has the potential to kill not thousands which it is already doing globally but hundreds of thousands and even millions if it is not fought with focus and perseverance.

Fauci said 10 times. I’m not sure where you get 14 from.

[MChild62]

Originally Posted by 1neeto

Fauci said 10 times. I’m not sure where you get 14 from.

Both numbers are frightening!

One thing that is certain about this virus: it's so new there's inadequate data that epidemiologists are still trying to assess an accurate fatality rate. This is in part a function of differences in testing and number of asymptomatic people or mild symptoms (so cases go unreported), variations among populations (average age per person, co-morbidities, percentage overweight, smokers, etc), available resources in each country (number ICU beds/doctors, etc), and also how the deaths vs infections are counted.

The Lancet report that I posted yesterday associated death rates with number of infection reported 14 days earlier, which gave a fatality rate of 5.5 - 5.9%. This is more than 50 times the flu, but still lower than the death rate so far here in Italy. This is only one report using currently available global data and we will probably see other studies using different parameters that suggest other rates as this develops further, and won't have an accurate estimate for some months. Given the variables, it looks like some countries will be hit much harder, with higher death rates, for the reasons above.

[KevWind]

Originally Posted by tbeltrans

That is worthy of a Gary Larson cartoon!

Tony

As middle of nowhere as we are , we've heard em all
couple more

[KevWind]

While I am firm believer in most research data
I had to laugh at Uncasts state score card for social distancing.
Based only on the change in daily distance traveled, pre-corona and and now.

Wyoming received an F with the less than 10 % change. But given the logistics and demographics of Wyoming I am not surprised.
The cows down in the lower 40 perhaps 1/2 mile or more away are not going to stop needing hay (and not another soul in sight)