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  #196  
Old 03-28-2020, 06:30 AM
seannx seannx is offline
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Originally Posted by Tracerbullet View Post
Bingo.
And the more you test the higher the numbers go. How come we are not reporting the numbers that test positive but do not need any more care than if you had another virus (ie. flu or cold virus)
That news doesn’t drive an agenda
Isn’t a confirmed case one that represents a positive test? We are at almost 105,000 confirmed cases and 1,711 deaths, and those numbers are continuing to rise rapidly. Due to lack of sufficient testing, the real number of cases is probably much higher. But I don’t see what agenda this drives. IMO the evidence of the threat is clear. And projections of spread are now including the effect of those who believe this is an overblown hoax.
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  #197  
Old 03-28-2020, 07:16 AM
cmd612 cmd612 is offline
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Originally Posted by Tracerbullet View Post
How come we are not reporting the numbers that test positive but do not need any more care than if you had another virus (ie. flu or cold virus)
That news doesn’t drive an agenda
My state's department of public health releases three updated numbers twice per day: number of positive tests, number of those who require hospitalization, and number who have died. I think this is generally what other other jurisdictions are doing, too. All of the major local news outlets here are reporting it regularly. Maybe it's different where you are.

FWIW, the ratio of hospitalizations to positive tests in this state has hovered close to 1:3 for the past several days.
  #198  
Old 03-28-2020, 07:44 AM
Otterhound Otterhound is offline
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Originally Posted by seannx View Post
Isn’t a confirmed case one that represents a positive test? We are at almost 105,000 confirmed cases and 1,711 deaths, and those numbers are continuing to rise rapidly. Due to lack of sufficient testing, the real number of cases is probably much higher. But I don’t see what agenda this drives. IMO the evidence of the threat is clear. And projections of spread are now including the effect of those who believe this is an overblown hoax.
Hoax , no .
Overblown , most likely .
  #199  
Old 03-28-2020, 07:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Tracerbullet View Post
Bingo.
And the more you test the higher the numbers go. How come we are not reporting the numbers that test positive but do not need any more care than if you had another virus (ie. flu or cold virus)
That news doesn’t drive an agenda
Well, the primary agenda in most societies/countries that are being affected by Covid19 is to promote social distancing in hopes of reducing the numbers who need hospitalization, and to reduce the death rate.

Unfortunately, I don't think that is the agenda you are referring to....

In recent weeks, I primarily turn to the the researchers in the field of epidemiology and immunology to get guidance and to learn about data, because they are much more likely to be familiar with (and to explicitly discuss) ALL the data, and to interpret the data in a way that is more trustworthy; they have had many years to learn the nuances of their fields, whereas "outsiders" sometimes make egregious mistakes born of ignorance of the field, ignorance of the suitable statistics, and ignorance about research design. It is all to easy to give weight to a study that should be disregarded because of design flaws or faulty assumptions.

Last: I agree with others who have noted that the number of folks who test positive and who don't go to the hospital are frequently in all the sources I consult (some of which are mainstream media).
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Last edited by buddyhu; 03-28-2020 at 08:34 AM.
  #200  
Old 03-28-2020, 08:01 AM
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There in an interesting discussion about social distancing with outcomes during 1918 pandemic, with lots of graphs, in recent National Geographic.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/h...c-coronavirus/
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  #201  
Old 03-28-2020, 08:16 AM
AX17609 AX17609 is offline
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Originally Posted by Otterhound View Post
Hoax , no .
Overblown , most likely .
As a career public health scientist of neutral political persuasion, I agree with this comment.
  #202  
Old 03-28-2020, 08:31 AM
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Humm? seems like the term "overblown" is subjective and kind of the opposite of "scientific"

While I agree the media is no doubt milking the situation, but honestly in terms of keeping it front and center in the public eye. IMO That is a good thing. We the people have historically and frighteningly, a pretty short attention span. (especially in things we "wish" weren't true)

I don't know but seems to me, given the known and suspected differences between Covid 19 and influenza, and the current rate of spread in the US and the protocols enacted so far in the US ... It's pretty hard to imagine them as anything close to "overblown".

from the CDC
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  #203  
Old 03-28-2020, 08:40 AM
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To be fair, most of what I have read usually mentions hospitalization rates, which is the same data as infected but sent home.
Those tested positive and not hospitalized are shown in "new cases". When you see new cases that doesn't mean hospitalized or critical. Those numbers are found on state or country statistics. I've had little trouble finding those from various health departments reporting. Those people are ordered quarantined or isolated for 14 days. Nothing nefarious there.
  #204  
Old 03-28-2020, 08:43 AM
buddyhu buddyhu is online now
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As a career public health scientist of neutral political persuasion, I agree with this comment.
I am sure we can all find elements of this that we consider "overblown". The critical question is which parts are overblown, and what would each of us like to see altered.

I'd like to see a more consistent deference to public health officials and physicians who are specialists in relevant fields. I would hope that this would lead to a more consistent message about which steps are necessary or prudent (and serve the interests of public health), and which steps are alarmist or overblown.

I believe that Dr. Fauci has been a pretty good example of the type of steadiness I'd like to see more commonly represented.
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  #205  
Old 03-28-2020, 09:26 AM
buddyhu buddyhu is online now
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Here is an article that is not uplifting, but which provides some important information.

It’s Too Late to Avoid Disaster, but There Are Still Things We Can Do
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/o...e=articleShare
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  #206  
Old 03-28-2020, 09:34 AM
robj144 robj144 is offline
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A lot of people talking about the mortality rate and that the situation is overblown doesn't make sense to me. I brought it up earlier in the thread. I personally, don't care about the mortality rate. Sure, it's probably lower, but I'm just looking at absolute deaths. If no measures were taken, this thing would, without doubt, kill millions.

Does this look like something overblown?

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  #207  
Old 03-28-2020, 09:41 AM
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Thanks all for your contributions. We have maintained this thread for longer than most thought it could go. In part that is by not engaging nay-sayers and those who dis-believe or doubt the seriousness of this epidemic. Likewise those with doubts and feelings have kept from riling things up.

Please try not to engage with or invite people to disagree with the numbers. This particular thread has been great with its intended purpose to update numbers and inform. If anyone would like to start a "so you don't believe" thread (that would probably last a few hours) please do so on another thread. Let's continue to keep this open.

Thanks, Steve

Last edited by DenverSteve; 03-28-2020 at 10:24 AM.
  #208  
Old 03-28-2020, 09:59 AM
jaytee32 jaytee32 is offline
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Weighing in here - I'm an American who lives in the Netherlands.

Here we are at the end of a second week of "intelligent lockdown". Intelligent means that they haven't shut everything down. People who can do their work from home have been instructed to do so. Construction work is not something you can do from home, but can do with 1.5 meter (about 5 feet) distance. People who have that kind of work are allowed to keep working. Others who cannot work from home but can't keep 1.5 meter distance are shut down : gyms, barbers, nail salons, physical therapy for most cases, etc. Groups of more than three non-family members are banned, and for the three or less, the 1.5 meter distance is mandatory ... you can be fined for violations.

The measures seem to be working. The big question is whether they will be enough to keep the number of people in intensive care below the capacity. In the south of the country, they're above capacity but have been shipping people to other provinces where the outbreak is less severe.

Y'all stay safe over there.
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  #209  
Old 03-28-2020, 10:04 AM
jklotz jklotz is offline
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Nothing much to add to the numbers thing, but I must say how impressed I am that this thread has been kept civil. We're all in this together.
  #210  
Old 03-28-2020, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted by jaytee32 View Post
Weighing in here - I'm an American who lives in the Netherlands. Here we are at the end of a second week of "intelligent lockdown". Intelligent means that they haven't shut everything down.
Jay. Thanks for the update. Your intelligent lockdown is pretty much the same as we have here in Colorado and many places. Construction continues as does "essential" businesses (restaurants for delivery/take out, construction, grocery stores, pharmacies and many other types of businesses. Hopefully what you're doing is going well. I see your current numbers place you 10th in the world and your numbers are going up like other countries. Your current (will change in minutes to hours) number are:

TOTAL CASES: 9762 NEW CASES: 1159 TOTAL DEATHS: 639

DEATHS REPORTED TODAY: 93 - UP 15% today.

Stay safe.
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