Supply chain? What does that mean?

[Rolph]

Over the past 3 years I've tried to order 5 different guitars. 3 electrics, 2 acoustics. No delivery, no follow up, no stock? Does anyone understand why, because the people at Sweetwater, M/F, and Guitar Center won't or can't say when anything will be available. Why is this happening, and why don't they know?

[HogsNRoses]

The world still has trouble getting electronic components. Who knows - maybe wood was disrupted because it has to season a few years.

One interesting factor in the supply chain for the United States was the Leahy Act, specifically the Farm Bill of 2008. That law was the context of the Gibson raids. Certain woods must be dimensioned in the country of origin. The Leahy Act gave us the J15 and a host of other walnut guitars while they beefed up the supply chain.

[Mycroft]

Originally Posted by HogsNRoses

The world still has trouble getting electronic components. Who knows - maybe wood was disrupted because it has to season a few years.

One interesting factor in the supply chain for the United States was the Leahy Act, specifically the Farm Bill of 2008. That law was the context of the Gibson raids. Certain woods must be dimensioned in the country of origin. The Leahy Act gave us the J15 and a host of other walnut guitars while they beefed up the supply chain.

I think that you mean "Lacey Act." The "Leahy Act" was a human rights law that prohibited providing military assistance to foreign security force units that violate human rights with impunity.

[tinnitus]

In my own simple terms, I wanted an Eastman AC422CE back in 2021 and had to order it sight unseen. Why?

Supply chain.
- Relatively limited (handmade) output from Eastman in China
- Parts/material/personnel shortages
- Crippled economies
- Sporadic shipping resources
- Widespread pre-order demand in hundreds of US shops
All created significant drag on the process. Three months of projected drag, in fact (so two months was a pleasant surprise when it showed up "early").

Given exponentially compounding negative global trends at the time, I understood and anticipated all of the above. Without turning this political, let's just say I don't see much relief in sight. There you have my take on sub-optimal supply-chain issues, present and future. You asked.

HUGE CAVEAT:
Two shop managers at a local chain (not Guitar Center) told me the guitar was mine for keeps if they ordered it for me. What??? I almost packed the whole idea in. What if it just wasn't a good instrument? How could I know that until I actually put it through its paces? But the General Manager over the whole chain stepped up and assured me this was not his policy - I wasn't on the hook. He'd "refund every penny and sell it to someone else that afternoon" if I didn't love it. We documented that conversation with an email, and then I paid for the guitar.

Played it at length, loved it, bought it, gigged with it, still love it.

My point? I'd never buy a guitar simply based on favorable specs and rave reviews without thoroughly wringing it out first. I don't recommend anyone do so either without a written satisfaction guarantee first, supply chain issues or not.

[imwjl]

The supply chain is sum of the places and sequences for getting a good produced.

Problems in all that can vary a lot. If one orders an instrument a large seller has in stock not getting it soon is more indicative of the reseller's business prowess and/or staffing and not likely a supply chain problem.

If not already built upon ordering a product the profit margin in it in addition to availability of the components can make a difference. Popularity can make a difference. We're now years into higher margin products and most popular products getting priority.

The seller's debt and A/P status can also impact availability. Sellers not paying their bills fast or on time has some impact.

[Murphy Slaw]

It's a blanket excuse for someone not getting something done...

[Silly Moustache]

I'm somewhat bemused by this thread. It illustrates a mindset that you should have instant access to any product you wish for.

This is simply not modern reality in the large er part of the world, especially for non essential products.

In 2005, I ordered an Eastman AR805 from a dealer who advertised one.
I was the second potential buyer.
I waited two years for the second.

I cannot buy a Collings or Waterloo "off the shelf" here in the UK and if I could it would cost the equivalent of $7.5-$9.2k

I've got a pretty cool collection of guitars now.
Most of which I bought used since the millennium.
I "stalk" guitars - I decide exactly what I want and focus in on that one thing.

Heck, we couldn't even get carrots last week!

[imwjl]

Originally Posted by Murphy Slaw

It's a blanket excuse for someone not getting something done...

Supply chain management was in coursework and my manufacturing jobs 40 years ago. The OEM auto parts production and QC management job I had in the 1980s made parts for your beloved MOPAR as well as GM, Honda and Deere. Supply chain management is how we helped Honda and Deere not be the stooges we reported to at Chrysler and GM.

Honda and Deere wanted to know parts were round as they were being made and never let bad ones get to the assembly line. Chrysler and GM were all about those parts had to get there. If they were bad they got hidden in the crappy vehicles people bought. We how that worked out.

I believe the different culture matters still go on. Some time in past few years I read Subaru did an engine and assembly plant shut down to kill quality and supply problems while competition had rows of partially finished vehicles. GM did an excellent job with the early Bolt problems. I've teased that might be from a woman running the place.

[rllink]

Have you actually spoken to anyone from the three sellers that you mentioned? I had the conversation with my guy at Sweetwater last year about this time. Simply put, consumer demand is as high as it has ever been. Manufacturers can't keep up. Companies that supply materials to manufacturers, and not just chips, can not mine, harvest and process materials fast enough to keep up. It is a shortage due to unprecedented demand around the world. Pretty simple, we want more than there is.

[Mr. Jelly]

Originally Posted by Murphy Slaw

It's a blanket excuse for someone not getting something done...

I go with this. It's also a cover for other decisions that management is making. If a company was thinking about pulling back or slowing down for their own reasons, they have something to point to and blame. Deflection. Somebody last night said the pandemic was three years ago. That's a pretty long time in the business world. We used to have projects that gave a return on the investment in two years. I think it has more to do with the accountants and investors that believe that the economic outlook is still on the roller costar that was started when the pandemic started and hasn't leveled out yet. It's not the supply chain as much as it's the investment chain. It's obvious Waterloo guitars is not investing to increase production, yet the guitars are still moving pretty briskly.

[ghostnote]

The key word is “chain” - it really is a worldwide chain, and if one of the links gets disconnected it can effect the other links. I spent my working career in that field, and it was always amazing how something tiny that you didn’t notice can cause big ripples in the pond. But since everyone knows that to be true, “supply chain” makes a very convenient, non-specific excuse for almost anything, because in almost every case, it’s a plausible scenario. It works for the honest , and it works for the dishonest.

[bfm612]

Originally Posted by Mr. Jelly

I go with this. It's also a cover for other decisions that management is making. If a company was thinking about pulling back or slowing down for their own reasons, they have something to point to and blame. Deflection. Somebody last night said the pandemic was three years ago. That's a pretty long time in the business world. We used to have projects that gave a return on the investment in two years. I think it has more to do with the accountants and investors that believe that the economic outlook is still on the roller costar that was started when the pandemic started and hasn't leveled out yet. It's not the supply chain as much as it's the investment chain. It's obvious Waterloo guitars is not investing to increase production, yet the guitars are still moving pretty briskly.

I guess I'd say the investment chain is part or tied to supply chain, so I'm a little less cynical about this and wouldn't say "supply chain issues" is a euphemism for "incompetence". Companies have to source their materials in the right volumes at the right times, which means they're reliant on sales/demand forecasts, which of course are rarely accurate. It simply isn't easy work.

Cost of capital or interest rates mean that they have to be wise about buying the right amount of materials without overbuying and have their raw materials sit in a warehouse, with their money not earning any interest. So, forecasting is inexact, and sourcing is inextricably tied to dollars. I think these supply chain issues can be attributed to a mix of incompetence (or excuses for which) and just the fundamental uncertainty from managing the supply chain.

[imwjl]

Originally Posted by bfm612

I guess I'd say the investment chain is part or tied to supply chain, so I'm a little less cynical about this and wouldn't say "supply chain issues" is a euphemism for "incompetence". Companies have to source their materials in the right volumes at the right times, which means they're reliant on sales/demand forecasts, which of course are rarely accurate. It simply isn't easy work.

Cost of capital or interest rates mean that they have to be wise about buying the right amount of materials without overbuying and have their raw materials sit in a warehouse, with their money not earning any interest. So, forecasting is inexact, and sourcing is inextricably tied to dollars. I think these supply chain issues can be attributed to a mix of incompetence (or excuses for which) and just the fundamental uncertainty from managing the supply chain.

For sure on competency and how it differs. I'm in an informal lunch and learn group of IT, logistics, accounting and finance people. In recent years it really showed that some industries are better than other.

Something fun for me is we tend to complain where we are at. The past few years have shown my industry - food - is actually pretty good at supply chain.

[Bob Womack]

The supply chain for any given product reaches from the mine or forest where the raw materials were mined, collected, or extracted, to the component stage where components are created, plastics for binding, capacitors and chips for electronics, and finishes, to the sub-assembies: trussrods, cases, bridge pins, and the whole onboard preamp systems and pickups are built, to construction at the manufacturer, to the wholesaler and then to the local retailer. In between each of those steps are shipping and/or customs steps.

We've had a profound health event coupled with a dramatic change in the economy and the degree of regulation of sourcing, shipping, and importing the materials, components, and sub-assemblies. In the middle of that, governments sent workers home. And n the middle of this, China decided to become the world's opponent as well as the world's supplier.

Before these events occurred, ease of procurement and reliability of delivery meant that virtually all large-scale factories went to "on-time" manufacturing, where there is no warehouse at the front end of the factory and parts were ordered to arrive on the specific date and often at the specific time when they were needed on the assembly line. The whole thing was a circus parade where all he "stuff" needed to make the product wasn't even in the building until the last item was added to the product. It saves space and money, but a delay in delivery is devastating - the line just stops when the parts aren't available.

Getting the whole thing back working synchronously is a herky-jerky affair. Let's say the spruce comes from the U.S. Pacific Northwest, the Rosewood from East India, the fingerboard and bridge from West Africa via Spain via California, the glue from Texas and New Jersey, the binding from Ohio, the electronics from mines all over the world through China through a small company in California, the finish from China or Japan through a small company in New York, the inlays from Taiwan, the tuners from China, the strings from Pennsylvania, well, you get the idea. Think of the number of burgeoning state and national regulations that must be complied with. Think of how many quarantined inspectors had to be back on he job to get the product passed. Think of how many union longshoremen, drivers, and customhouse employees were needed and had to not be on strike or quarantined. And think of the fact that the final quarantine regulations were just lifted.


In many ways, the whole fulfillment and delivery thing is just starting to get spun up to previous levels of reliability and cost. Think of how often a forumite posts to say that a delivery of a guitar has taken a week longer than expected. Now apply that to every step of the journey from forest to dealer.

Bob

[buddyhu]

Originally Posted by rllink

Have you actually spoken to anyone from the three sellers that you mentioned? I had the conversation with my guy at Sweetwater last year about this time. Simply put, consumer demand is as high as it has ever been. Manufacturers can't keep up. Companies that supply materials to manufacturers, and not just chips can not mine and harvest materials fast enough to keep up. It is a shortage due to unprecedented demand around the world. Pretty simple, we want more than there is.

This ^ is the primary issue. Very high demand, while manufacturing and shipping can’t keep up. And in some industries in the US, there are shortages of labor, either because of changes that started with the pandemic (relocations, changes in attitudes towards certain employment options), or other variables limiting hiring.