COVID-19 (Con’t)

[KevWind]

Originally Posted by Joe Beamish

Most people agree on strict quarantines now. The question is when to open things up again and get the economy moving. Random antibody testing, for example, would give us an idea how many people have been infected and recovered, and how soon hospitalization rates will decrease.

Or we can rely solely hospitalization rates, which is more limiting in planning for the future.

Ah OK, yes I get your point now and agree

[Peter Wilcox]

Originally Posted by Dirk Hofman

So I'm probably missing something since I was a studio art major, but I thought a log-log graph was logarithmic on both axes. Isn't this one log on only the vertical?

"You are correct, sir." Ed McMahon

As in this frequency response graph many of us are familiar with:

[MChild62]

Italy Update - March 31 (report from 6pm Civil Protection press conf)

2,107 new, currently positive cases vs 1,648 yesterday, but over 6.000 additional tests were performed. So the recent eduction in new cases appears to be holding. Additionally, the number those hospitalized with the virus in Lombardy is slightly LOWER today vs yesterday, as well as those who are in intensive care. Similar small reductions are in numbers in the second hardest hit region, Emilia Romagna (which includes Bologna).
837 deaths. Still high/horrific, but starting to look like the death rate may have reached a plateau. Again, most deaths have been coming out of the Lombardy region, so we are hoping to avoid exponential growth in other parts of the country.
Over 500,000 tests have been conducted nationally. It was explained in the press conference that this does not mean 500,000 people have been tested. Some are tested three or more times: one or two tests to determine whether they are positive, and then, once positive, a further test or tests to determine whether they are still positive or are now negative/free of the virus.
One reporter asked about the numbers appearing to be plateauing also in Sicily and parts of the south, but also rumors that they are running out of test chemicals. Dr. Borelli, the head of the authority, said they hope that people are continuing to respect the lockdown and the numbers will hold. As for the test materials, he said there are meetings held at a national level to ensure are adequate tests where they are needed most right now.
The authority said indications from the government is that the national lockdown is to remain in place at least until Easter.
http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/a...c82fe38d4138b1

Screen Shot 2020-03-31 at 6.19.50 PM.jpg

[Peter Wilcox]

Originally Posted by DCCougar

Here's the best page for actual info I've seen. It's got U.S. total (or highlights any other country), graphs for each state, and you can toggle between log and linear scales...

Wow! What a great site. Thanks.

[Joe Beamish]

Originally Posted by DCCougar

Here's the best page for actual info I've seen. It's got U.S. total (or highlights any other country), graphs for each state, and you can toggle between log and linear scales...

Very interesting.

What is the deal with Sweden? Aren't they NOT on lockdown? Didn't they leave everything open, all the restaurants, etc? And yet look at that flat curve.

[seannx]

Encouraging news. We’re sheltering in Sonoma County.
https://www.politico.com/states/cali...lation-1269663

[ManyMartinMan]

Originally Posted by robj144

....and yes flattened their curve, but also think despite that, they are still doubling every week or less... There needs to be some note about that somewhere.

Actually Rob they're not here's a S.Korea infection graph that shows they were at half current numbers on March 2. They are kicking it in the tail. Even today they're only at 9,786 which means they were at half this number around March 3rd.

[HodgdonExtreme]

Originally Posted by Otterhound

No , I don't , unless you plan on forcibly sequestering people .
I have no doubt that the data will intrigue some , but from a real world and practical point , I see no constructive purpose .
Bottom line is that it is not possible to test everyone .
What is your viewpoint on acquired immunity in those that have recovered ?

I think the biggest cause of the spread is being contagious prior to even knowing you've been exposed.

I don't think you need to "force-sequester" people that know they're sick. The ones that are hard to sequester are the ones that feel fine and have no reason to believe they might be contagious. My point is, if we all knew our status - I think the sick ones would stay home and stop infecting the rest of us.

But you're right, testing like that isn't going to happen, so we've got to make due with only glimpses of what might be the truth.

Also, the antibody test to determine if you've been sick and are recovered - getting that rolled out and ramped up is huge. I think there is a HUGE chunk of people that have unknowingly recovered from this plague. Those people will be extremely beneficial to us, assuming they in fact have immunity.

[ManyMartinMan]

Originally Posted by HodgdonExtreme

I think the biggest cause of the spread is being contagious prior to even knowing you've been exposed.

Yep. Pretty standard. If they look sick we know to stay away.

[Joe Beamish]

Originally Posted by HodgdonExtreme

....Also, the antibody test to determine if you've been sick and are recovered - getting that rolled out and ramped up is huge. I think there is a HUGE chunk of people that have unknowingly recovered from this plague. Those people will be extremely beneficial to us, assuming they in fact have immunity.....

Huge, especially in helping us open up the economy again without killing tons of people.

[Dirk Hofman]

Originally Posted by HodgdonExtreme

I think the biggest cause of the spread is being contagious prior to even knowing you've been exposed.

I don't think you need to "force-sequester" people that know they're sick. The ones that are hard to sequester are the ones that feel fine and have no reason to believe they might be contagious. My point is, if we all knew our status - I think the sick ones would stay home and stop infecting the rest of us.

But you're right, testing like that isn't going to happen, so we've got to make due with only glimpses of what might be the truth.

Also, the antibody test to determine if you've been sick and are recovered - getting that rolled out and ramped up is huge. I think there is a HUGE chunk of people that have unknowingly recovered from this plague. Those people will be extremely beneficial to us, assuming they in fact have immunity.

We can certainly aspire to test at least as well as other countries. Why on earth would we not be able to do this? Why shouldn't such a huge country with the biggest GDP on earth be able to test its people and slow this thing down? The faster we slow it, the lower the economic impact.

Not acceptable to me to either suggest or accept that we can't test everyone who needs to be tested. That should be the clear goal.

[Joe Beamish]

Originally Posted by Dirk Hofman

We can certainly aspire to test at least as well as other countries. Why on earth would we not be able to do this? Why shouldn't such a huge country with the biggest GDP on earth be able to test its people and slow this thing down? The faster we slow it, the lower the economic impact.

Not acceptable to me to either suggest or accept that we can't test everyone who needs to be tested. That should be the clear goal.

Yep. It'll happen. From what I understand, federal regulations (and overall lack of preparedness from basically everyone you can think of) really slowed our ability to test initially. Private business is now ramping it up quickly.

[Neil K Walk]

Looking forward in the short term, does anyone know of the results or studies involving plasma from recovered COVID-19 as a possible treatment?

[cmd612]

Originally Posted by Joe Beamish

Yep. It'll happen. From what I understand, federal regulations (and overall lack of preparedness from basically everyone you can think of) really slowed our ability to test initially. Private business is now ramping it up quickly.

And yet the local health department in the county next to mine (which already has over 500 confirmed cases and numerous deaths) tightened their guidelines yesterday to say that no one should be tested unless they a) have symptoms AND b) either fall into a high-risk category or are a health care worker.

Meanwhile, a woman who worked in the same building I do died over a week ago from covid-19. She went to the hospital twice but wasn't tested until she died, and her husband is in the hospital with pneumonia but last I heard hadn't been tested yet.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not criticizing the health dept. guidelines. Obviously it makes sense to conserve the limited testing capability for people most at risk and those who take care of patients. Unfortunately, I just don't see any evidence, at least around here, that testing capability is really ramping up all that quickly. Hopefully that will change soon.

[6 Strings MI]

Originally Posted by Neil K Walk

Does anyone know of the results or studies involving plasma from recovered COVID-19 as a possible treatment?

I heard something about it earlier, but can't recall specifics. What I recall better is that the FDA has approved an anti-malaria drug, though in a limited capacity.