Inflation is reversing. YAY!

[Steve DeRosa]

Originally Posted by Mandobart

The 5 year gas price graph Andre showed illustrates to me to be wary of making projections based on recent short term trends...The rest of us are typically following our own gut feeling and individual experience...

+1 - there are far too many factors (both intrinsic and extraneous) that come into play - some of which were touched upon above, a significant number of which cannot be discussed here...

By way of my father I received extensive first-hand exposure to said significant factors (the means by which also cannot be discussed here), starting when I was four years old and lasting through the next three decades...

On the basis of a lifetime of individual experience and good old Brooklyn-bred street smarts, my gut feeling is that this little bubble is going to burst - simply a matter of when, not if...

I'll just leave this here and walk away...

[Draft Guitar]

Originally Posted by raysachs

Isn’t “demand-destruction” part of how inflation comes under control? When the fed raises interest rates, it’s increasing the cost of many purchases, thus reducing the number of such transactions, thus cooling the economy and reducing inflation. When prices are spiraling UP, at a certain point, the high prices become self-governing and reduce demand by pricing many people out of the ability to buy a product, or as much of the product. Inflation happens when demand is high as supplies are low. When inflation becomes a problem, the prices rise to a point that the demand drops, and thus prices drop. OR, production is ramped up to the point that supply comes closer to meeting demand. Either way, prices come down. Isn’t “demand destruction” just one part of balancing supply and demand?

-Ray

It very well can be, as long as the FED doesn't mess with the system (printing more money for distribution). There is just too much available cash out there as a result of Covid. We are in a very precarious situation and the remedy can be worse than the disease is "we" aren't careful. I'm hoping this will be transitory, but I fear it may not be.

[Silly Moustache]

"James" at the local Honda Dealer called me in yesterday to discuss a "deal" - a CRV Hybrid for £30k, Offered £15.k for my 2014 CRV. It hasn't done 30,000 yet.

Petrol is now under USD Equiv $9 a gallon but I fill up every two months or so.

Inflation here is over 9% and expected to top 13% by October- Mainly domestic energy.

My Gas and Electricity was £90 a month this time last year, its £218 now and expected to top £300 per month by October.

Plus savings and investments down significantly.

Not a time to swap cars I'm thinking.

[The Watchman]

Supply and demand. Inflation is how the free market adjusts when there is an imbalance.

[dnf777]

This is really bumping up against the “no politics” rule. Lets keep it open by focusing on the guitar aspect.

[Gitfiddlemann]

Originally Posted by buddyhu

And my subjective sense is that used guitar prices are starting to come down.

Maybe too soon to celebrate, but some encouraging signs.

From what I've observed through the years, the guitar market tends to spike up to price levels that are artificially too high, sometimes irrationally so, i.e. they don't match actual demand. After a while, lower sales tend to force prices back down to match the market better. I think we might be seeing some of that.
On the other hand, there was an infusion of money into people's hands that likely fueled some of those price hikes.
One way or the other, all these issues are connected. If lower prices are happening across the spectrum of goods, including guitars, that would be a welcome development for everyone.

[Mr. Jelly]

I like to follow financial news and from what I have read and seen, after wading through the noise, things are moving pretty much how they have been predicting them to. I expect things will continue how they expect them to in the future barring a black swan. Or maybe a white swan if there is such a thing. I do expect a depression to take hold. How big, wide and how long is the question.

[fumei]

It is not so bad if you live in an urban(ish) place. It is much harder for those out in rural areas where you HAVE to drive.

In northern British Columbia (where it gets very remote) there are much fewer volunteers who drive patients to their cancer appointments. These are often a couple of hours away from where the patient lives. These volunteers are just that - volunteers, driving their own vehicle, paying for their own gas.

So driving TO the patient; driving TO the hospital; driving them BACK home, then driving home yourself - well, that cost adds up very quickly. Patients are missing appointments.

This is a problem. Clearly they have to revamp the model. These drivers are going to have to get some reimbursement. However, right now they are not.

Here in Vancouver it is still close to $7 a gal (all numbers fiddled to convert to U.S. gal). If you work at it, you can find about $6.20/gal. We still have the most expensive gas in North America.

[buddyhu]

Originally Posted by Mr. Jelly

I like to follow financial news and from what I have read and seen, after wading through the noise, things are moving pretty much how they have been predicting them to. I expect things will continue how they expect them to in the future barring a black swan. Or maybe a white swan if there is such a thing. I do expect a depression to take hold. How big, wide and how long is the question.

Don’t know whose opinions you are reading, but everyone I pay attention to is l talking about the mixed economic signals, and strange combinations of conditions.

No one I consult is predicting a depression. Some are predicting economic weakness for the rest of the year, but modest growth in 2023.

Unemployment is very low, hiring is strong.

Housing starts have slowed, but are still in bullish territory.

Stock market may be experiencing a bear market rally, but some feel that this more resembles type beginning of a new bull market.

Economic activity in Europe is robust (with some exceptions).

And, some are predicting a negative economic future primarily to have an effect on non-economic events.

So, the future remains uncertain. But I personally will be surprised if there is a depression, though we might see a mild recession (or already be in one), similar to what we saw in the early 90’s.

[tbeltrans]

Originally Posted by AndreF

From what I've observed through the years, the guitar market tends to spike up to price levels that are artificially too high, sometimes irrationally so, i.e. they don't match actual demand. After a while, lower sales tend to force prices back down to match the market better. I think we might be seeing some of that.
On the other hand, there was an infusion of money into people's hands that likely fueled some of those price hikes.
One way or the other, all these issues are connected. If lower prices are happening across the spectrum of goods, including guitars, that would be a welcome development for everyone.

A bit off topic, but I checked out the youtube channel in your signature and wanted to compliment you on your playing. Very nice and enjoyable to listen to.

Now, back to our regular thread discussion...

Tony

[buddyhu]

Originally Posted by tbeltrans

A bit off topic, but I checked out the youtube channel in your signature and wanted to compliment you on your playing. Very nice and enjoyable to listen to.

Now, back to our regular thread discussion...

Tony

I agree: Andre F knows how to play! Quite lovely! And more heart full than any discussion of inflation or the economy!

[Gitfiddlemann]

Hi Tony and Rich, many thanks for your kind words!
Yeah, we can share many diverse opinions on inflation and the economy, but guitars, that’s our great unifier.

[Bob Womack]

Let's take it down to the "granular" level, as they say these days. My little family sees things in terms of bills and expenses vs income, with an eye towards free money after all is paid. In our case, we give each other a little allowance every two weeks if there is money to spare. Typically, my allowance goes directly into my guitar fund. With a little discipline, my guitar fund can stay at about the same level despite occasional purchases.

We sold the family homestead this year and received a distribution from the trust that held it. With that money we paid off our mortgage, a loan for a new heat pump, and our charge card. All things considered, we ended up with a little less than $1200 per month less in bills starting in April. We've also been pulling in the reigns on budget, simplifying our lifestyle and lowering our monthly requirements. Meanwhile, my wife works for a large chain pharmacy corporation. Due to the economy/inflation issues, my wife's company has reduced her hours by one-half.

How has it worked out? Right around April was when inflation began rising dramatically. Despite the $1200 added to our monthly headroom and our lifestyle cost reductions, our groceries, eating out, gasoline, the electric bill, cell phone, cable, everything has gone up. The bottom line is that we've experienced a loss in discretionary income. In fact, at my level we've only disbursed allowances once in the past four months, so my little guitar fund is shrinking dramatically.

Bob

[rmp]

they lower the price 30 cents and we're supposed to cheer?

it's still up about 2 bucks from about a year ago.

I aint buyin it..

we're still in a mess.

[iim7V7IM7]

Too much money chasing too few goods….

The US Federal Reserve Bank will need to continue to put the pedal to the metal in terms of interest rate hikes. The bullish jobs report pretty much ensures that. It is also a trailing economic indicator as well. How far they will need to go is anyone’s guess before it quells inflation. Paul Volcker took many years to unwind inflation in the 1970s together with stimulative tax reform in the early 1980s. Volcker did not have the spector of $31 trillion of debt to service to constrain him that Powell has. The Fed is way behind the mark in their monetary policy and situations like this never end well. I look for the next few years to unfortunately be a “bumpy ride”. The real estate “bubble”, high CAPE ratio on US Stocks and high levels of consumer debt are all ticking time bombs in this type of economic environment. I am not a big believer in “this time it is different”.

Sorry for the glass half empty view, but that is how I see it.