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  #31  
Old 02-17-2021, 09:32 AM
The Watchman The Watchman is offline
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Most of the problem is due to natural gas demand. Home heating demand is making it less available to the power plants, most of which run on natural gas. The Ford plant here is shut down to low natural gas supply. Texas power grid is linked to the high plains states so the problem runs all the way up to Canada.
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  #32  
Old 02-17-2021, 10:30 AM
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East Texas is getting freezing rain right now. So our 5” of snow is melting down, but it looks like all our trees are melting now under the weight of the ice. Staying warm for now.
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  #33  
Old 02-17-2021, 10:30 AM
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It is more about the natural gas grid than the power grid:

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/...-pipelines.php
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  #34  
Old 02-17-2021, 11:00 AM
bfm612 bfm612 is online now
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Originally Posted by raysachs View Post
I’m not gonna take this far at the risk of getting political, but the problem with the Texas power grid are NOT primarily about wind or solar energy, which account for about 15% of the state’s power. There’s a long history behind Texas’s low energy prices, deregulation, and the reliability tradeoffs that come with them. Ordinarily it works pretty well, but it’s not well setup for dealing with these kinds of stresses. People telling you that these outages are the result of too MUCH renewable energy aren’t being honest with you.
Thanks for this. This is correct. Generation of all types were failing, and natural gas accounts for a significant portion of that generation, dwarfing wind's. Natural gas wells produce water as a byproduct, and water is also required to keep them running. A deep freeze like this incapacitates not just wind turbines, but also natural gas, which is the primary form of generation.
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  #35  
Old 02-17-2021, 11:09 AM
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The point being, many people are without power, it is very cold for a state not used to this prolonged cold and power comes from many sources. Likely many of the southern states are also not prepared for this duration of cold and ice.

We have been lucky and have had our heat and power so far and am thankful for that. Many of our friends 30 minutes away are without. We have invited them all over, but thus far they are staying home and doing what they can to keep pipes from freezing with propane heaters etc. They know they are welcome here if needed.
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  #36  
Old 02-17-2021, 11:17 AM
bfm612 bfm612 is online now
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Originally Posted by TomB'sox View Post
We have been lucky and have had our heat and power so far and am thankful for that. Many of our friends 30 minutes away are without. We have invited them all over, but thus far they are staying home and doing what they can to keep pipes from freezing with propane heaters etc. They know they are welcome here if needed.
Always a silver lining to see kindness in these circumstances. Friends of ours, a young couple with two young kids, are staying at a complete stranger's house that was offered to them while said stranger instead stayed at his/her parents'. It's great to see this kind of generosity that I'm not even sure I'd be capable of but can aim to have.
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  #37  
Old 02-17-2021, 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted by bfm612 View Post
Thanks for this. This is correct. Generation of all types were failing, and natural gas accounts for a significant portion of that generation, dwarfing wind's. Natural gas wells produce water as a byproduct, and water is also required to keep them running. A deep freeze like this incapacitates not just wind turbines, but also natural gas, which is the primary form of generation.
Yes I am glad Ray posted this as well because what I wrote myself implied that gas wasn’t a significant contributor and it definitely is. Just to get the record straight though ERCOT 2021 source expectation was ~50%gas, ~25%wind, with coal around 13% the rest being basically solar and nuclear; very consistent with 2020 actual.

And because Ray said what he said (and I hope I don’t go to far either) the Texas power market structure is a poster child for what not to do if you want a truly reliable grid systems in terms of individual home customers. There is one power retailer telling it’s customers to go elsewhere because the spot power price they are exposed to is now $9000MwHr!! Of course who can they sign up with right now?
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  #38  
Old 02-17-2021, 04:22 PM
catndahats catndahats is offline
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A lot of the Texas spirit is shining bright in this mess Tom. We live over by Canyon Lake Dam, and in spite of our water company losing the ability to produce water due to the rolling blackouts, and no emergency generators,

People are doing what Texans do in rough times---pulling together, checking on neighbors, fixing broken pipes, preparing food, opening their homes, sharing what they have with neighbors/strangers, checking on the elderly, etc...yes, but kids are still sliding down the hills in inner tubes---it is not a Hallmark Christmas in Vermont movie right now.

*Guitars got tucked away before the storm...fingers are too numb to play anyway.
*All preps were done to plumbing, flashlights, candles, food supplies, drafty windows, etc...but did not anticipate no water for days on end. And when some executive CEO decided rolling blackouts was a good idea for their bottom line, they did not consider than many homes are 100% electric---our indoor temperature dropped almost 30 degrees when they shut down power and it was 8 degrees and negative digits with wind chill.
*Extra firewood for the wood stove got bought, but I did not buy enough and am rationing to the wood stove which has always provided ambiance but now is for survival.
*We haven't had water in 3-4 days...no baths, collecting snow and melting it to flush toilets...primitive camping at its' best.
*The roads are essentially closed, ice on all the hills...we are not set up for ice/snow.

But Texans will get through this, and in just 90 days it will be at least 90 degrees warmer than it has been this week.
Ya'll stay safe!


Quote:
Originally Posted by TomB'sox View Post
The point being, many people are without power, it is very cold for a state not used to this prolonged cold and power comes from many sources. Likely many of the southern states are also not prepared for this duration of cold and ice.

We have been lucky and have had our heat and power so far and am thankful for that. Many of our friends 30 minutes away are without. We have invited them all over, but thus far they are staying home and doing what they can to keep pipes from freezing with propane heaters etc. They know they are welcome here if needed.
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  #39  
Old 02-17-2021, 05:27 PM
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Well, I'm in Cypress, Tx. (Northwest Houston) Moved from El Paso, 6 months ago. Our power was out for 43 hours,
I'm originally from Ontario, Canada (21 yrs ago, ha, ha)
I'm not impressed, Texas could use a few lessons in preparing for expected weather conditions ( just sayin')

Don't know how long power will be up, they say there WILL be rolling blackouts.

I'm hoping everything gets sorted out sooner than later, too many people in a bad way around here.
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  #40  
Old 02-17-2021, 05:42 PM
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Part of the root cause in Texas is not having a robust testing process to anticipate, test and plan for these situations. Other states and nations survive in cold, windy, rainy and snowing conditions for weeks and months on end. Not even being able to run the state for 24 hours is a complete embarrassment.
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  #41  
Old 02-17-2021, 06:03 PM
endpin endpin is offline
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The revelation that much of the executive leadership of ERCOT does not reside in the state of Texas [some not even in the USA] is not going over well at the moment.
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  #42  
Old 02-17-2021, 06:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rmccamey View Post
Part of the root cause in Texas is not having a robust testing process to anticipate, test and plan for these situations. Other states and nations survive in cold, windy, rainy and snowing conditions for weeks and months on end. Not even being able to run the state for 24 hours is a complete embarrassment.
^This. I am definitely not impressed. Texas should be ashamed of itself. I'm betting the power conglomerates in the state will have record profits this year though.

But, as catndahats said, we're watching out for others. We lent one of our extra generators to my wife's boss and he lent us an extra radiant heater. All our neighbors are doing ok, and we check to make sure regularly, especially the 80 year old across the street.

We have a claim in to our insurance company for the waterfall that appeared in the master bedroom closet and garage (even with trickling water in all faucets, insulated exposed outside pipes and a heat gun on the exposed attic pipes for much of the day yesterday!). It will be interesting to see how long it takes an estimator to visit. No real worries though, we have several days worth of generator fuel as well as food and water (including a 6-foot stock tank we use as a swimming hole for the dogs...lol).

In a couple days I might be willing to kill for a shower, but so far we're doing fine.
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Last edited by kego; 02-17-2021 at 11:08 PM.
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  #43  
Old 02-17-2021, 06:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rmccamey View Post
Part of the root cause in Texas is not having a robust testing process to anticipate, test and plan for these situations. Other states and nations survive in cold, windy, rainy and snowing conditions for weeks and months on end. Not even being able to run the state for 24 hours is a complete embarrassment.
Not! They make billions and they are to be responsible. To be responsible they hire people to do the think tank devils advocate computer modeling. We did things like that constantly in my plants for years. It's called being proactive. The people I respect call it doing your job. They should be personally held responsible for their actions, or inaction as the case may be. Seriously it isn't that hard to look at the capacity of the gas industry. Compare that to the increased needs of the retail customers in cold weather plus the needs of the increased demand to generate electricity. They talk to the gas company daily under normal conditions to purchase gas. This little thumb nail sketch on it's own would have sent up red flags. I don't believe for a second that they didn't know it and decided it was cost effective to pretend this would never happen while they packed the money.
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  #44  
Old 02-17-2021, 06:51 PM
Geof S. Geof S. is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rmccamey View Post
Part of the root cause in Texas is not having a robust testing process to anticipate, test and plan for these situations. Other states and nations survive in cold, windy, rainy and snowing conditions for weeks and months on end. Not even being able to run the state for 24 hours is a complete embarrassment.
We have a similar problem in California with our power utilities and fires. However, California may be even worse because we know in advance we are going to have fires every summer, and we still don't do nearly enough to prevent them.
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  #45  
Old 02-17-2021, 09:16 PM
The Watchman The Watchman is offline
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Being prepared for disasters like this takes money. Nobody wants to pay higher taxes and power rates.

Last edited by Acousticado; 02-18-2021 at 10:09 PM. Reason: Political
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