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  #16  
Old 12-04-2022, 06:26 PM
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The maybe soon and quite likely, breakthroughs with perovskite solar cells will be a big deal for military as much as everyone else.
That’s as ‘maybe’ or as ‘quite likely’. There undoubtedly will be viable alternatives as time goes by, but you can’t make these things happen by mandate.

All I see is the humble consumer being pushed in a certain direction, without any evidence that the currently available alternatives will provide the energy required to fuel the direction we’re being pushed in.

Hope is not a strategy - and it sure as heck isn’t science.
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  #17  
Old 12-05-2022, 07:16 AM
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Thatís as Ďmaybeí or as Ďquite likelyí. There undoubtedly will be viable alternatives as time goes by, but you canít make these things happen by mandate.

All I see is the humble consumer being pushed in a certain direction, without any evidence that the currently available alternatives will provide the energy required to fuel the direction weíre being pushed in.

Hope is not a strategy - and it sure as heck isnít science.
I need your help to understand here and I also don't want any trouble outside of forum rules.

The disciplined research and testing done by many is science. The perovskites I mentioned and you responded to are minerals. All the parties interested and doing research are just commerce, research and innovation as has gone on for generations.

The enterprise where I manage infrastructure and so many others are not being pushed except for being competitive. Our industry is after cost savings above all but also its long-term sustainability and being able to best guarantee getting food to people.

GM and Stellantis just spent $ billions on new gasoline engine families and plants for as good a proof as any that we will have lots of choices as to how we can move vehicles.

I've learned a lot outside of work too and am happy to share - several years as a conservative and business owner appointee to the city council committee that addresses power and transportation matters in our ordinances and zoning. Insuring the city has what employers need, and long-term sustaining a strong municipality.

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  #18  
Old 12-05-2022, 12:35 PM
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I think Tesla missed the mark with this product. I can envision EVs being useful for last mile delivery and short haul situations where the truck returns back to a home base for recharging at the end of a shift. But I can't see them for long haul, interstate use. The range is too short, and recharging away from a base requires a whole new network of remote, high-power charging stations.

One source of the problem in my opinion is the underperformance of Tesla's new 4680 battery. This situation is only now coming to light. The 4680 battery was supposed to provide all sorts of advantages from form factor to increased range. In fact, you could argue that the whole Austin gigafactory was built around its use.

But independent tests are now rolling in, and the 4680 does not appear to be delivering on very many of its promises. The cells aren't using the technology that was advertised, manufacturing rejection rate is high, and pack level performance isn't any better than Tesla's other batteries. The result is that the company has been forced to use their 2170 battery in the Semi, which makes it technologically little more than a gigantic car.

So, congratulations to Tesla for delivering the Semi. Unfortunately, it's not the product that the company promoted. It may turn out to be useful for some business applications where a large volume of product is moved a relatively short distance. But it seems unlikely to replace gas and diesel for long haul. I think the company would have been better off developing a last mile delivery vehicle of the type that Rivian and Ford are now producing.
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Old 12-05-2022, 04:38 PM
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If you are not spoofing
Actually electric delivery vehicles date back to the 1930'S...
Were any Bakers used for delivery purposes?

If so, they go much further back than the 1930s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baker_Motor_Vehicle
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  #20  
Old 12-06-2022, 07:24 AM
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Were any Bakers used for delivery purposes?

If so, they go much further back than the 1930s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baker_Motor_Vehicle
I don't know I simply googled history of electric delivery trucks and got some results from 1930
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  #21  
Old 12-06-2022, 08:15 AM
imwjl imwjl is offline
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Originally Posted by Jeff Scott View Post
Were any Bakers used for delivery purposes?

If so, they go much further back than the 1930s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baker_Motor_Vehicle
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Originally Posted by KevWind View Post
I don't know I simply googled history of electric delivery trucks and got some results from 1930
Storage has been the challenge for generations. Electricity was always used in industrial applications before the past 12-15 years with much improved battery situation that is both the batteries themselves and the recent big drop in their manufacturing costs. The manufacturing costs have dropped so much that we are going forward with better and more expensive mining and manufacturing.

I'm now 30+ years removed from a lot of electric motors moving stuff in industry but we have lots of them in the food business and lots of compressors that have much in common with ICEs. The refrigeration racks are electric motors paired with the compressors. You see the electric motors with build dates stamped that are often 200% to 400% longer lasting than pistons, rods, crankshafts and valves.

At times I think Tesla just does overall hype or marketing for acceptance. The truck announced last week has range shy of the typical daily drive for OTR trucking but well beyond drayage and distribution. I think we need to factor in Musk's ability to capture and trick the dullards among us in that.

What I mean about that last bit is just observing the way people miss his hype and fallacies to promote. Examples would be people I know who think his pickup made of vaporware is neat but bash the big selling 3 and Y models. People quote and "like" his stuff against education that very much contradicts the requirements for the many job openings he posts. An acquaintance of mine who did not finish his engineering degree in college got a job at Tesla but is very bitter that within he was against a wall for opportunity just like other places.

I predict manufacturing will remain a challenge for Tesla. That requires a whole lot of expertise and experience and is illustrated by Tesla, Rivian, other startups and the Lordstown story.

The Foxconn aspect and rescue with Lordstown situation will be interesting to watch. They actually achieved homologation in about same news cycle as this Tesla semi.
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  #22  
Old 12-06-2022, 09:24 AM
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I predict manufacturing will remain a challenge for Tesla. That requires a whole lot of expertise and experience and is illustrated by Tesla, Rivian, other startups and the Lordstown story.
Yeah, sometimes I wonder why people don't consider this more when purchasing a high ticket item like a car or truck.
Take EV truck Rivian:

Bed size: 54", Cargo Volume: 11.3 cu ft. Price: $70K+
What the ??? What am I missing?
Why would anyone buy this other than for show? Add to that the manufacturing woes that startups often don't consider fully when they are just raising capital and making big promises.
The typical US pickup has a bed of 80" and 60 cu.ft of cargo volume.
This truck makes no sense, imo, for anyone who uses their trucks for utility purposes. These are not replacements for current gas powered models.
I'm actually a fan of EVs generally speaking, and I hope the technology keeps on advancing, but we have a long way to go in terms of making a feel good environmental purchase if you look at all the manufacturing steps along the way beyond just the lack of a tail pipe on the end product.
It's a tough time to be needing a truck. I'm glad I don't do a lot of traveling because my vehicles are getting very old.
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  #23  
Old 12-06-2022, 09:56 AM
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Yeah, sometimes I wonder why people don't consider this more when purchasing a high ticket item like a car or truck.
Take EV truck Rivian:

Bed size: 54", Cargo Volume: 11.3 cu ft. Price: $70K+
What the ??? What am I missing?
Why would anyone buy this other than for show? Add to that the manufacturing woes that startups often don't consider fully when they are just raising capital and making big promises.
The typical US pickup has a bed of 80" and 60 cu.ft of cargo volume.
This truck makes no sense, imo, for anyone who uses their trucks for utility purposes. These are not replacements for current gas powered models.
I'm actually a fan of EVs generally speaking, and I hope the technology keeps on advancing, but we have a long way to go in terms of making a feel good environmental purchase if you look at all the manufacturing steps along the way beyond just the lack of a tail pipe on the end product.
It's a tough time to be needing a truck. I'm glad I don't do a lot of traveling because my vehicles are getting very old.
My boss is waiting for his, and my cousin's son is a or the safety manager in the Rivian plant after doing same for Caterpillar.

It's not entirely silly though not as utilitarian as others on the market. The company has a two axle trailer used for events and shuttles between stores. For 20 years a Suburban has done both of transport staff with special needs and that 2 axle trailer. All or stores are in renewables programs from 3 different electrical utilities. The Rivian should make the longest 176 mi leg pulling the trailer.

I expect fast charging coming to grocery stores via what I read in industry and distribution news. The refrigeration in stores means all but the charge device is already there.

My boss has 2/3 Teslas, often makes 300-400 mile trips, and has no worries or range anxiety so that clearly helped his decision.

We have a fleet of electric vans for our delivery operation on hold for the moment. Nothing against the Ford vans as much as that might all be outsourced, and the vans are on such backorder. Someone else's EV vans would do the same job but as a vendor. We've already contracted floral delivery to a firm with 50+ EVs.
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  #24  
Old 12-06-2022, 10:37 AM
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Originally Posted by AndreF View Post
Yeah, sometimes I wonder why people don't consider this more when purchasing a high ticket item like a car or truck.
Take EV truck Rivian:

Bed size: 54", Cargo Volume: 11.3 cu ft. Price: $70K+
What the ??? What am I missing?
Why would anyone buy this other than for show? Add to that the manufacturing woes that startups often don't consider fully when they are just raising capital and making big promises.
The typical US pickup has a bed of 80" and 60 cu.ft of cargo volume.
This truck makes no sense, imo, for anyone who uses their trucks for utility purposes. These are not replacements for current gas powered models.
I'm actually a fan of EVs generally speaking, and I hope the technology keeps on advancing, but we have a long way to go in terms of making a feel good environmental purchase if you look at all the manufacturing steps along the way beyond just the lack of a tail pipe on the end product.
It's a tough time to be needing a truck. I'm glad I don't do a lot of traveling because my vehicles are getting very old.

I would say it all depends on exactly what "utility" one is talking about or likely to use

Following your line of thought one could argue 'It makes no sense to buy a pickup with a 77" or 80" inch bed when an 8 ft bed costs no more and gives one max utility (example :: you can actually haul a stack of 4 by 8 plywood inside the bed)

While I would not buy a "pickup with a 54" bed I would also not buy one with a 77" or 80" and yet the If I remember correctly the short bed 5' 6" is the single most popular selling full size pick ---- Go figure
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Last edited by KevWind; 12-06-2022 at 03:48 PM.
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  #25  
Old 12-06-2022, 11:42 AM
imwjl imwjl is offline
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I would say it all depends on exactly what "utility" one is talking about or likely to use

Following your line of thought one could argue 'It makes no sense to be buy a pickup with a 77" or 80" inch bed when an 8 ft bed costs no more and gives one max utility (example :: you can actually haul a stack of 4 by 8 plywood inside the bed)

While I would not buy a "pickup with a 54" bed I would also not buy one with a 77" or 80" and yet the If I remember correctly the short bed 5' 6" is the single most popular selling full size pick ---- Go figure
We are very rich with choice in these times. The small pickup bed makes sense for many. The El Camino and Ranchero are long gone but new era "utes" such as Ford's and Hyundai are popular. Rumors of Toyota entering are out there. VW teases a ute version of their EV van.

To correct what I stated earlier, my boss' latest Rivian delay is because he switched from the truck to SUV to preserve the 3 row seating he's always had for events with the full-size SUVs. As I understand it a leased GM pickup (shorter bed) will still be around in the transition.

Rending full-sized pickups is easy and pretty cheap which is in part why I no longer own a pickup.
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  #26  
Old 12-06-2022, 12:04 PM
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I'm an Admin on a popular truck forum. I can tell you with some certainty that the short bed pickup in the 150/1500 families of trucks are not being designed out for the foreseeable future. Before the advent of the modern crew cab, you'd see the 76" (+/-) bed as the popular choice. When people started buying more crew cabs than quad cabs, manufacturers shortened that bed to keep the over all dimensions as they were.

I like the idea of the 8' bed, but I have no regular need to stack 4x8's in the bed and shut the tailgate.

I saw a Rivian pickup in the wild a couple weeks ago. It was kinda cool, and the additional storage under the front hood and the full pass through (more storage) just behind the second row doors likely makes up for the short bed.
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  #27  
Old 12-06-2022, 03:06 PM
AndreF AndreF is offline
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I expect fast charging coming to grocery stores via what I read in industry and distribution news. The refrigeration in stores means all but the charge device is already there.
That's a logical assumption, but I don't think I would ever buy an EV without the ability and flexibility to charge it at home. So, I have to figure those planning costs in with the price of the vehicle.(not insignificant based on my present house layout, but worthwhile for me) .
When I was a little kid, growing up in the cold Canadian north, it was common to plug the engine compartment in winter to make sure the car started the next morning. Ditto for a Rabbit Diesel I owned much later on. (A mistake car, never to be repeated). So, having to plug in a vehicle for one reason or another is nothing new for me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KevWind View Post
I would say it all depends on exactly what "utility" one is talking about or likely to use

Following your line of thought one could argue 'It makes no sense to be buy a pickup with a 77" or 80" inch bed when an 8 ft bed costs no more and gives one max utility (example :: you can actually haul a stack of 4 by 8 plywood inside the bed)

While I would not buy a "pickup with a 54" bed I would also not buy one with a 77" or 80" and yet the If I remember correctly the short bed 5' 6" is the single most popular selling full size pick ---- Go figure
I suppose if you tow a trailer, or have no utilitarian needs, a short bed truck would be adequate, but my old 1/2 ton pickup has a 76" bed, which I find to be the perfect size. I have a Tacoma as well to compare it to, and that one has a 60" bed only. Too small but for the lowliest of utilitarian work.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rule18 View Post
I'm an Admin on a popular truck forum. I can tell you with some certainty that the short bed pickup in the 150/1500 families of trucks are not being designed out for the foreseeable future. Before the advent of the modern crew cab, you'd see the 76" (+/-) bed as the popular choice. When people started buying more crew cabs than quad cabs, manufacturers shortened that bed to keep the over all dimensions as they were.

I like the idea of the 8' bed, but I have no regular need to stack 4x8's in the bed and shut the tailgate.

I saw a Rivian pickup in the wild a couple weeks ago. It was kinda cool, and the additional storage under the front hood and the full pass through (more storage) just behind the second row doors likely makes up for the short bed.
Yeah, I don't recall seeing very short crew cabs around when I bought mine (back in 2000), but even if they had been around I don't think I would have considered them. But, they certainly work for a lot of people, so it's just personal likes.
You're right that the Rivian has additional storage not seen in the photo, but it's not the kind of room that I personally would find useful, like hauling yard trash and debris for example. (Lots of trees surrounding my property on all sides).
My truck is definitely a work horse, and still going strong at 198K miles. Knock on rust!
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  #28  
Old 12-06-2022, 04:24 PM
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That's a logical assumption, but I don't think I would ever buy an EV without the ability and flexibility to charge it at home. So, I have to figure those planning costs in with the price of the vehicle.(not insignificant based on my present house layout, but worthwhile for me) .
When I was a little kid, growing up in the cold Canadian north, it was common to plug the engine compartment in winter to make sure the car started the next morning. Ditto for a Rabbit Diesel I owned much later on. (A mistake car, never to be repeated). So, having to plug in a vehicle for one reason or another is nothing new for me.


I suppose if you tow a trailer, or have no utilitarian needs, a short bed truck would be adequate, but my old 1/2 ton pickup has a 76" bed, which I find to be the perfect size. I have a Tacoma as well to compare it to, and that one has a 60" bed only. Too small but for the lowliest of utilitarian work.


Yeah, I don't recall seeing very short crew cabs around when I bought mine (back in 2000), but even if they had been around I don't think I would have considered them. But, they certainly work for a lot of people, so it's just personal likes.
You're right that the Rivian has additional storage not seen in the photo, but it's not the kind of room that I personally would find useful, like hauling yard trash and debris for example. (Lots of trees surrounding my property on all sides).
My truck is definitely a work horse, and still going strong at 198K miles. Knock on rust!
I can't imagine needing more than a Level 2 charger at home. Most all homes built for several decades now have the service so think of it as needing same cabling for an appliance brought to your garage.

For the rest, it is a bit hard to judge pickups now as in my growing up or when they were mostly work tools. We still have the significant work vehicle market. 4 door models with shorter beds are family vehicles for many. Then the niche where they are more hobbyist or or symbols than work vehicles.
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