July 4 Holiday Travel Predictions

[imwjl]

I see AAA in my state predicts this 4th of July will be second busiest since 2001.

After our 2 weeks ago cabin trip and a short trip I made yesterday I'm saying maybe not so sure, or not the classic event where it looks like much of Chicago and Milwaukee are N. WI. It's never been the same since the last recession.

To support they might be right but things change, our two weeks ago cabin trip saw fewer travelers towing motorized stuff with big vehicles but it seemed like people with paddle craft and bicycles were traveling.

At a trailhead gathering yesterday I got the impression fuel prices might impact the holiday weekend. For some it was a hot topic and not for others easily explained by what was in that parking lot. The complaints were a perfect setup for the Tesla owner in the group.

[KenL]

I can tell you this- we drove back up into the mountains last Friday after spending the day in Colorado Springs, and got stuck behind about 100 vehicles, many of them RVs and campers. Made for slow going, the trip took about 45 minutes longer than usual.

I can't imagine putting fuel into a giant pickup truck pulling a massive 5th-wheel camper, but there were several of them in the parade.

I think it's going to be a big weekend, despite the gas prices.

[jpd]

AAA is dreaming. Travel will be lighter on the highways as gas prices zoom up to new records

[buddyhu]

Many people are really craving a more normal “vacation” experience, so a “normal” July 4th holiday appears to be within reach, psychologically speaking.

However, gas prices (and other prices, like for food) are pretty high, which typically suppresses travel.

Which dynamic will hold the most sway? I am guessing the longing for a little escape and a break from daily cares and pressures will have a stronger influence: I’d anticipate lots of folks will hit the road, and that the AAA prediction will be pretty accurate.

[Tahitijack]

With one week to go and flight cancelation left and right....this will be a light travel 4th.

[Tyeetime]

I have a truck and travel trailer, and have expensive fuel in Canada. But that won't stop me from travelling. I might go on slightly shorter trips, but honestly it costs me about $30 more to fill my tank than last year. So maybe my trip next week will cost me and extra $200. This is not stopping me.
People with economic cars shouldn't really be too worried, at least not to the extent of cancelling trips.

[imwjl]

Originally Posted by buddyhu

Many people are really craving a more normal “vacation” experience, so a “normal” July 4th holiday appears to be within reach, psychologically speaking.

However, gas prices (and other prices, like for food) are pretty high, which typically suppresses travel.

Which dynamic will hold the most sway? I am guessing the longing for a little escape and a break from daily cares and pressures will have a stronger influence: I’d anticipate lots of folks will hit the road, and that the AAA prediction will be pretty accurate.

Normal for many in my area is how many make the 200 - 400 mile trips from Chicago and Milwaukee areas and likely a gapminder scenario where a broad range of incomes going to small resorts started changing a long time ago.

Parks being full had been strong for a while and there I think AAA could be right with lots of shorter distance travel.

Normal has got to be a lot of romance in memories too. A friend who just returned from a trip in a rented motorhome with the kids and grandparents described the adult version as torture and I suggested his parents probably felt the same.

Originally Posted by Tyeetime

I have a truck and travel trailer, and have expensive fuel in Canada. But that won't stop me from travelling. I might go on slightly shorter trips, but honestly it costs me about $30 more to fill my tank than last year. So maybe my trip next week will cost me and extra $200. This is not stopping me.
People with economic cars shouldn't really be too worried, at least not to the extent of cancelling trips.

I'm taking your view but we try to live considering best practices stuff, aim to meet or beat means and medians so yeah, $10 - $30 differences we can afford periodically.

One thing in mind lately that would change me more than fuel prices is probably better for an AGF retirement planning thread - revisit what the last 10 years of living could cost.

If what we observed on some recent trips north with more tourism active/outdoor sports tourism is a trend people should be happy overall. Paddlers, hikers, and peddlers spend money and IMO are probably doing something more healthy than sit on machines. They seem to have less of the heavy alcohol consumption in the motorized tourism that's usually going bar to bar.

[Mr. Jelly]

I traveled through Nebraska and into the mountains in northern Colorado after the holidays and I thought the traffic was way down. Moutain cabins had vacancies and the camp sites were mostly empty. YMMV

[Dirk Hofman]

I'm up in Tahoe already from the Bay Area. Without traffic it's about a 3.5 hour drive. Going up on the holiday weekend is simply not an option, it could easily turn into 6-7 hours and has. Never again. My wife is coming up with the kids VERY early Saturday morning to beat the rush.

I'd be surprised if it was down much from previous years. Not seeing much difference in Northern Cal, but that's totally anecdotal and it will be interested to see if Tahoe feels more crowded this year over the holiday. But still hard to tell because once we're at our place, we don't venture into town during crowded hours much.

I guess I have no idea. I would expect AAA, who study and analyze traffic patterns across the country in detail, yearly, have a better idea of what's going to happen than folks opining on social media. Call me crazy.

As an aside, Google is using AI to start to predict traffic: https://blog.google/products/maps/go...ermine-routes/

To predict what traffic will look like in the near future, Google Maps analyzes historical traffic patterns for roads over time. For example, one pattern may show that the 280 freeway in Northern California typically has vehicles traveling at a speed of 65mph between 6-7am, but only at 15-20mph in the late afternoon. We then combine this database of historical traffic patterns with live traffic conditions, using machine learning to generate predictions based on both sets of data.

Recently, we partnered with DeepMind, an Alphabet AI research lab, to improve the accuracy of our traffic prediction capabilities. Our ETA predictions already have a very high accuracy bar–in fact, we see that our predictions have been consistently accurate for over 97% of trips. By partnering with DeepMind, we’ve been able to cut the percentage of inaccurate ETAs even further by using a machine learning architecture known as Graph Neural Networks–with significant improvements in places like Berlin, Jakarta, São Paulo, Sydney, Tokyo, and Washington D.C. This technique is what enables Google Maps to better predict whether or not you’ll be affected by a slowdown that may not have even started yet!

I think this is going to be a fascinating development. As the prediction move further out as the AI gets better, and as they include views into these predictions into their experiences, this could be an amazing tool for trip planning. Very curious to see where this goes.

[RP]

My cabin located west of Charlottesville, VA at the foot of the Blue Ridge Mts. is like a 365-day vacation home. Going on vacation when many others are doing the same is not my idea of a vacation...

[Dru Edwards]

Canada - I've been reading for the past few weeks how air travel is messed up in Canada, especially in Toronto (Pearson airport is by far Canada's largest and a major hub). Not enough staff from multiple entities, luggage getting lost (more than usual), lots of cancelled/delayed flights, etc.

I have no travel plans for our July 1st week-end and I'm happy with that.

[rllink]

The wife flew out this morning to San Antonio with a layover in Minneapolis. She just landed in San Antonio a half hour ago. She had three hours in Minneapolis so she checked into the Delta Sky Lounge. She said the food was good, the coffee was hot, and there were a lot of people, but all and all it went smooth as can be expected. She is flying back on the 4th. We will see how that goes. But she flies a lot, she can usually see trouble coming and avoid it when it comes to travel.