Corona Virus Disease

[tbeltrans]

Originally Posted by rokdog49

I am inclined to agree.
Here are some numbers that are not “ in the news” and yet you will be startled:

2019 Global Deaths from Traffic accidents per day -3287
Drug overdose deaths in the United States in 2017 - 70,000
2019 Global Homicides excluding wars - 484,000

The list goes on and on...

...and the final number...

The chance of every human being dying during their lifetime... 100% with a survival rate of 0%.

Worrying about it won't change anything except that one chooses worry over living. All anybody can do with these viruses is take whatever sound advice comes their way minus the hysteria.

Tony

[robj144]

Originally Posted by tbeltrans

...and the final number...

The chance of every human being dying during their lifetime... 100% with a survival rate of 0%.

Worrying about it won't change anything except that one chooses worry over living. All anybody can do with these viruses is take whatever sound advice comes their way minus the hysteria.

Tony

It's not just being affected, it's indirect affects. The economy might be affected. The food supply might be affected. Your town might be quarantined if it's really bad.

[buddyhu]

There is not enough known about the disease to reach a firm conclusion. It could be not too different from the typical flu, or it could be VERY serious.

Good to be prepared, not good to buy into the hysteria.

We see some type of disease hysteria every couple of years: AIDS (before the mechanism of transmission was firmly established) ebola, SARS, “chicken flu”. At some point, no doubt, something nasty will come along and wipe out many millions. But it it too soon to know if this is “the killer” that will be mentioned in history books (or the equivalent of history books), or if this is another thing that causes great fear until we know enough to reduce the fear.

[tbeltrans]

Originally Posted by buddyhu

There is not enough known about the disease to reach a firm conclusion. It could be not too different from the typical flu, or it could be VERY serious.

Good to be prepared, not good to buy into the hysteria.

We see some type of disease hysteria every couple of years: AIDS (before the mechanism of transmission was firmly established) ebola, SARS, “chicken flu”. At some point, no doubt, something nasty will come along and wipe out many millions. But it it too soon to know if this is “the killer” that will be mentioned in history books (or the equivalent of history books), or if this is another thing that causes great fear until we know enough to reduce the fear.

Thank you. A voice of reason.

Tony

[mr. beaumont]

Originally Posted by tbeltrans

...and the final number...

The chance of every human being dying during their lifetime... 100% with a survival rate of 0%.

Tony

"I'll never get out of this world alive."


Look, Corona Virus is concerning because we don't have a vaccine for it yet, which means we can't protect the people who need protection from it. So based just on that, care about it.

I think we'll see in the end that it's no more deadly than the seasonal flu--you have to remember, many of those who died from it were in China, and China's healthcare system is NOT that of the US or much of Europe.

But yeah, be concerned about it, because even if it's not a big deal for YOU, I bet you know someone who it would be a very big deal for.

[catdaddy]

Originally Posted by DesertTwang

That is not correct. The "Spanish Flu" pandemic of 1918 killed 3% of the entire world's population. Not just 3% of those who contracted it. The pandemic claimed three times more lives than WWI, which had ended that same year.

COVID-19 and the Spanish Flu are completely different beasts, though, because the lethality of COVID-19 is not even close to that of H1N1, the strain that caused the Spanish Flu pandemic, which disproportionately affected young, healthy individuals.

The reasons for this are only beginning to be understood and quite fascinating. Here are a couple of articles I wrote about the research of one of our faculty members who specialize in this type of research:

https://uanews.arizona.edu/story/why...u-matters-most

A paper he published in 2016 made a big splash as it overturned some long-held "wisdom:"

https://uanews.arizona.edu/story/bir...s-flu-pandemic

The info concerning mortality rate for the 1918 Influenza Pandemic that I referenced was obtained from a Stanford University article: https://virus.stanford.edu/uda/

"The effect of the influenza epidemic was so severe that the average life span in the US was depressed by 10 years. The influenza virus had a profound virulence, with a mortality rate at 2.5% compared to the previous influenza epidemics, which were less than 0.1%."

Whichever numbers from 1918 one chooses to believe, they're dire enough to present a cautionary tale that should motivate all of us to be informed and to stay alert concerning the status of the emerging spread of COVID-19.

[DesertTwang]

Originally Posted by Silly Moustache

It is most likely that my next bout of flu will take me out, although I'd rather be taken out more quickly by the husband of a beautiful young woman who has just seduced me.

Perhaps I can reassure you a bit - just because you're getting older doesn't mean the likelihood of succumbing to the flu goes up.

Research on the evolution of influenza virus has shown that your birth year predicts to a large extent which strains you will be most (and least) susceptible to during your lifespan. This is because of an effect called imprinting, in which your immune system gets primed to the very first strain of flu you encountered as a child. That is locked in and will determine which strains you will fight off more and less easily when you encounter them. In simplified terms, your odds are best the more closely related a flu strain is to the one you first saw as a child, and vice versa.

Researchers are currently working on developing a flu vaccine that instead of trying to predict which strains might go around in a future season looks at the past. In other words, people are likely going to be vaccinated against different strains according to their birth year. As always with new science, it will likely take a while for that shift to occur, though.

Originally Posted by Silly Moustache

It is "just" another strain of an influenza virus, but then so was Spanish flu after WW1.

Corona virus is actually different from the influenza virus. It belongs to the same group of viruses that causes most forms of the common cold. This one just happens to be more virulent, which is not surprising, because that's a very common pattern of evolutionarily "young" virus strains that just made the jump from their usual reservoir into a completely new host. The same was true for the Spanish flu: It was caused by a "new" strain that had only recently made the jump from avian hosts into humans, very similar to the bird flu, to which the Spanish flu strain is closely related.

Generally speaking, viruses have no interest in killing their hosts because that runs counter to their goal, which is propagating, like any other biological entity.

HIV is another example; the reason why it's so virulent and lethal is because it is "young and inexperienced" at dealing with its host (anthropomorphically speaking). Such viruses are like teenage drivers -- they lack experience, drastically overestimate their abilities and kill their hosts (and by extension, themselves) off at a high rate.

Once a virus strain evolves and better adapts to its new host, it figures out a way of ensuring its own multiplication and propagation — making the host sick, but not sick enough to die quickly and end the chain. Evolutionarily mature and "experienced" strains find ways to co-exist with their hosts so they get the most benefit out of it.

[srick]

I have been following this closely as there will likely be issues with patients in my dental office.

1. Don't panic.
2. Wash your hands. Consider wearing gloves in public. Avoid touching your face or eyes with bare hands.
3. Masks are generally only good for an hour, then they must be changed.
4. Stock up on any necessities that you may need if you are infected. Not so much to get the supplies before anyone else, but to avoid standing in lines at your pharmacy, etc.
5. Wash your hands.
6. Avoid crowds.
7. Cover your coughs.
8. Oh, and also, wash your hands!

IMO, we're still at the beginning of this. Cases will pop up in most of the fifty states. Some schools will close. Elderly or debilitated folks will be particularly at risk, similar to a severe flu.

Our knowledge of viruses, transmission and anti-viral strategies has come a long way. Hopefully, this disease will fade away as quickly as it came, but it pays to "Be prepared!"

[imwjl]

I'm sure there's new knowledge since this was published first of the month but I feel it's still informative.

[Gitfiddlemann]

Originally Posted by DesertTwang

Perhaps I can reassure you a bit - just because you're getting older doesn't mean the likelihood of succumbing to the flu goes up.

Research on the evolution of influenza virus has shown that your birth year predicts to a large extent which strains you will be most (and least) susceptible to during your lifespan. This is because of an effect called imprinting, in which your immune system gets primed to the very first strain of flu you encountered as a child. That is locked in and will determine which strains you will fight off more and less easily when you encounter them. In simplified terms, your odds are best the more closely related a flu strain is to the one you first saw as a child, and vice versa.

Researchers are currently working on developing a flu vaccine that instead of trying to predict which strains might go around in a future season looks at the past. In other words, people are likely going to be vaccinated against different strains according to their birth year. As always with new science, it will likely take a while for that shift to occur, though.




Corona virus is actually different from the influenza virus. It belongs to the same group of viruses that causes most forms of the common cold. This one just happens to be more virulent, which is not surprising, because that's a very common pattern of evolutionarily "young" virus strains that just made the jump from their usual reservoir into a completely new host. The same was true for the Spanish flu: It was caused by a "new" strain that had only recently made the jump from avian hosts into humans, very similar to the bird flu, to which the Spanish flu strain is closely related.

Generally speaking, viruses have no interest in killing their hosts because that runs counter to their goal, which is propagating, like any other biological entity.

HIV is another example; the reason why it's so virulent and lethal is because it is "young and inexperienced" at dealing with its host (anthropomorphically speaking). Such viruses are like teenage drivers -- they lack experience, drastically overestimate their abilities and kill their hosts (and by extension, themselves) off at a high rate.

Once a virus strain evolves and better adapts to its new host, it figures out a way of ensuring its own multiplication and propagation — making the host sick, but not sick enough to die quickly and end the chain. Evolutionarily mature and "experienced" strains find ways to co-exist with their hosts so they get the most benefit out of it.

That was a very interesting read. Not the kind of stuff that has come up in the media so far. Thanks for sharing.
You sound like you have a medical background.

[Tahitijack]

We were heading to Tuscany for three weeks this spring. Sadly after debating the trip the past few days, which was totally booked air, hotel, ground transport and guides, we spent the morning canceling all reservations. As they say it will still be there next year and we have a ton of work in the file for 2021. My wife even took a college course on the Etruscans. Oh well..

[imwjl]

Originally Posted by Tahitijack

We were heading to Tuscany for three weeks this spring. Sadly after debating the trip the past few days, which was totally booked air, hotel, ground transport and guides, we spent the morning canceling all reservations. As they say it will still be there next year and we have a ton of work in the file for 2021. My wife even took a college course on the Etruscans. Oh well..

Without something showing obvious risk, I'd not do that but I would factor in knowing cancellation options and future news.

We just did an international trip in but took in the facts for the circumstances and went on living. It was not a trip with a likelihood of contact. There's been COVID-19 in our city and not even the one we flew out of. We flew to Jamaica and not China.

Also, for that trip I did my usual. Wiped down the tray and arm rests, kept hands away from face, clean hands.

With some people bringing up the COVID-19 paranoia they went onto saying Jamaica was dangerous and thought I was crazy to also be going into the mountains - utter stupidity. We didn't go to the worst neighborhoods there like just like at home. No one would visit the US if they used same logic.

A tour operator and resort - not something we usually do - concerned me even before the growing news of COVID-19. Overall, years of traveling on our own has let us have more control over hygiene and food safety.

I hope your trip will work out in the future.

[tbeltrans]

Originally Posted by mr. beaumont

"I'll never get out of this world alive."


Look, Corona Virus is concerning because we don't have a vaccine for it yet, which means we can't protect the people who need protection from it. So based just on that, care about it.

I think we'll see in the end that it's no more deadly than the seasonal flu--you have to remember, many of those who died from it were in China, and China's healthcare system is NOT that of the US or much of Europe.

But yeah, be concerned about it, because even if it's not a big deal for YOU, I bet you know someone who it would be a very big deal for.

All that said, we have taken the precautions that made sense. I am just not going to spend a lot of time worrying about it. Simple, and yes, I know someone for whom it would be a big deal - my wife. I have spent much of our marriage being her caretaker, so don't count me out as uncaring. You don't know me. As a long time resident and president of our 72 unit condo association, I look out for many in our community who need help. As I said, you know nothing about me so let's leave it at that.

Tony

[tbeltrans]

Originally Posted by robj144

It's not just being affected, it's indirect affects. The economy might be affected. The food supply might be affected. Your town might be quarantined if it's really bad.

...and rather than worrying about what might happen, I choose to take action and be prepared. So we stocked up on groceries, have much extra cash, have discussed these possibilities in an informational (rather than emotional, worrying) manner with other residents in our condo association, and then we move on. We can't change anything by worrying about it. Instead, do what you can to prepare and let it go.

Tony

[hairpuller]

Use common sense, folks.

Try not to listen to the media, as they blow nearly everything out of proportion. As far as I know there has not been a single death in the USA from corona virus.

Take precautions as you would any time we're in the cold or flu season.

scott