Will guitar prices go down after the pandemic?

[JackB1]

I understand prices are high right now due to high demand and low supply. So you think prices will come back down after we get back to "normal" whenever that is? It seems like average guitar prices for desirable models, like a J45 or D18 are up around $500 from where they were last year.

[Mattface]

I guess no one knows for sure, but I would expect the answer to be yes. Currently dealers are not offering their usual discounts on new models, which they really can't afford to do if they can't get another one in quickly and make up for the low profit margin on volume, but I predict that about a year after things shift back to normal (whatever that may be) we'll start seeing a glut of used instruments from the folks who bought "pandemic guitars" only to discover they really didn't play them much or at all even when locked in their homes.

I recently read an article about "pandemic buyers remorse" where folks are regretting purchases they made to help them get through the pandemic. Fortunately I don't have any such regrets on any pandemic related purchases. I even burned through that 50 pound bag of flour in reasonable time, but I do think the glut of barely used instruments over the next few years will be a boon to players looking for good deals. For that matter the effects will probably be felt to a lesser extent for decades as some folks will not sell them right away.

[YamahaGuy]

Did meat prices ever come back down after the Texas droughts and high fuel costs back in 2007-2013?

The skeptic in me says, highly unlikely.

[rstaight]

I wouldn't expect new prices to drop to much. But after this pandemic is over I really expect to see a glut of used instruments.

[catndahats]

to answer, I don't know about new guitar prices.

But, used asking prices for nicer guitars (insert your favorite brand) appear to be high to me. When used prices are close to new prices, the incentive to buy used is not high.

That's from my point of view since I am casually shopping for a used higher end guitar I hope the prices come back down...and my observation is good deals on high(er) end used guitars go quickly. I just look past the one's that are in my opinion not good values.
Maybe a good time to sell?
---except I doubt I could replace my nice guitars for the price I'd get selling.

[Rev Roy]

When the supply/demand thing finally balances again MAP won’t go down but I expect the usual discounts will return. There also will likely be a glut of starter guitars that will hit the used market when lots of folks who decided to learn during the lockdowns give up...

[Nimiety]

Originally Posted by rstaight

I wouldn't expect new prices to drop to much. But after this pandemic is over I really expect to see a glut of used instruments.

...and puppies, kitties and bicycles...

[wguitar]

My view is that there are too many unknown variables in the economy to really predict future new guitar prices. I do believe that with the increased number of guitars purchased during the pandemic that there will be tons of great deals on used guitars at some point -- mostly beginner and intermediate-level guitars. Just my 2 cents.

Cheers!

[Andyrondack]

Don't know about what might happen in North America but European countries are borrowing record amounts unknown in peacetime, taxes will have to rise and I would guess a chunk of that will be through increased VAT on luxury items.

[rllink]

Not to pre pandemic prices but enough that people will get excited and snatch up the "deals". I agree with those who think there will be lots of used guitars being sold, probably take a while though for people to start thinking it is time to unload them. I guess we will see.

I always wonder, people seldom wear out guitars. Some get broken, but it can't be that many. A lot of them don't even get played after the newness wears off. How is it that they can just keep building, selling, and adding more guitars to the pile of them already out there? I mean, there must be millions of them being built and sold every year, year after year. Where do they go? I wonder that about a lot of things.

[Nimiety]

Originally Posted by wguitar

My view is that there are too many unknown variables in the economy to really predict future new guitar prices. I do believe that with the increased number of guitars purchased during the pandemic that there will be tons of great deals on used guitars at some point -- mostly beginner and intermediate-level guitars. Just my 2 cents.

Cheers!

I think you're right. I think most people who wanted to start something new to keep them occupied during lockdowns, also didn't want to strain their finances too much - just in case. So they would opt for less expensive instruments.

[KevinH]

Originally Posted by JackB1

I understand prices are high right now due to high demand and low supply. So you think prices will come back down after we get back to "normal" whenever that is? It seems like average guitar prices for desirable models, like a J45 or D18 are up around $500 from where they were last year.

I hear many people say that prices have jumped up since covid, but is that really the case for D-18s? My interests are in smaller guitars so I don't follow prices on dreds. But, FWIW, here is the Amazon price history for D-18 Standards over the past decade. If the labels are too small to read, 2010 is at the left end, with tic marks at 1 yr intervals, and 2021 at the right end. Their price hasn't even gone up $50 over the past year. Or are you referring to the fact that the old 40% MSRP discounts don't apply now?

[Batmitestar]

Originally Posted by rllink

I always wonder, people seldom wear out guitars. Some get broken, but it can't be that many. A lot of them don't even get played after the newness wears off. How is it that they can just keep building, selling, and adding more guitars to the pile of them already out there? I mean, there must be millions of them being built and sold every year, year after year. Where do they go? I wonder that about a lot of things.

This is a very interesting thought to ponder. It's got to be mostly true, few guitars are run over by forklifts and completely destroyed, and many folks surely give up after a few months of aching fingers on their nearly pristine Fender Newporters. There must be an absolute mountain of very lightly used guitars wasting away across the globe. Those fortunate enough to be in a case should be fairly safe from big dings and perfectly serviceable for learning and more.

And you're right, applies to lots of things, but feels particularly sad to think of millions of almost unplayed axes out there languishing.

Taking mental inventory of my house, there's a telescope and a drone that are certainly underwhelmed with their schedules . . .

[zoopeda]

Originally Posted by YamahaGuy

Did meat prices ever come back down after the Texas droughts and high fuel costs back in 2007-2013?

The skeptic in me says, highly unlikely.

I agree. Like most people here, I'm no economist or expert, but human nature tells me vendors will start to enjoy bigger profits, and guitarists will start to get used to higher prices. We saw this happen last year on Reverb--they hiked their fees and started charging sales tax. Business still seems booming over there. Many shops hiked consignment fees in the last year or two. Consumers absorbed all those costs. I'm no expert, but I can't help but see this as a sign of inflation (at least in the guitar world) rather than some temporary price bump. Time will tell.

[zoopeda]

Originally Posted by KevinH

I hear many people say that prices have jumped up since covid, but is that really the case for D-18s? My interests are in smaller guitars so I don't follow prices on dreds. But, FWIW, here is the Amazon price history for D-18 Standards over the past decade. If the labels are too small to read, 2010 is at the left end, with tic marks at 1 yr intervals, and 2021 at the right end. Their price hasn't even gone up $50 over the past year. Or are you referring to the fact that the old 40% MSRP discounts don't apply now?

Amazon is not a great gauge for guitar pricing IMO. Maybe over years and decades, but the price hikes people are referring to are primarily past 6 months. There's no question, vendors are not offering the same discounts right now because they can't get stock replenished in time to sell the volume they need to stay in business.