COVID-19 CASES INCREASING

[HodgdonExtreme]

Originally Posted by gitarro

So we need to look at his not so much as how much risk u personally are under- especially if you are still young and have no underlying medical condition - but the effect on the whole societal resources as a whole and the minority who will pay the price. Any social distancing and lockdown needs us all globally to work together to make it work - so we all need to stray going out to enjoy the sunshine and to stay at home to beat covid19 and know how serious this is and that selfishness by us has a tangible cost in human lives.

We can deal with this such that the minority pays the price. Or, we can deal with it in such a way that the majority pays. Or still yet, a balance of the two.

My opinion is there are meritorious arguments for each.

Bottom line, there's a big price to be paid regardless how it's handled.

[Dirk Hofman]

Originally Posted by HodgdonExtreme

We can deal with this such that the minority pays the price. Or, we can deal with it in such a way that the majority pays. Or still yet, a balance of the two.

My opinion is there are meritorious arguments for each.

Bottom line, there's a big price to be paid regardless how it's handled.

I really wonder what the plan is other than lockdown and distancing, and how will it play out? I don’t know that anyone has made that case.

[gitarro]

Originally Posted by frankmcr

Exactly. Was anybody expecting headlines to say "No more covid cases"?

And as to people walking around in the parks - as long as they're keeping reasonably distant (at least one metre, says the WHO), they're obeying the rules. The virus isn't spread just by being in the vicinity of other human beings in the fresh air and sunshine.

The virus is spread precisely through being in vicinity of other human beings who are infected. They do not have to cough on you, which by the way can project droplets six to eight metres. Thy just need to talk to you. The more you leave home the more chance you will pick up the vvitud from some surface where the virus was sitting or from someone who passed by you an the more chance you will bring the virus back home to your loved ones. Take this thing seriously - hundreds are dying every day from this disease and America should have locked down way before this

[Cypress Knee]

Originally Posted by Dirk Hofman

I really wonder what the plan is other than lockdown and distancing, and how will it play out? I don’t know that anyone has made that case.

I just took Uchild42(?) posts and mixed in a little Cormac MaCarthy "The Road", Stephen King "The Standing" and Hollywood's "Book of Eli"...and there is where we may be headed.

CK

[gitarro]

Originally Posted by HodgdonExtreme

We can deal with this such that the minority pays the price. Or, we can deal with it in such a way that the majority pays. Or still yet, a balance of the two.

My opinion is there are meritorious arguments for each.

Bottom line, there's a big price to be paid regardless how it's handled.

Of course there is a price to be paid no matter what you choose - that is the concept of opportunity cost in economics.

The difference is though that the minority pays the price by dying in agony and choking to death on their phlegm and fluid filled lungs while the majority pays the price of being bored at home for a month and suffering mere financial loss that they can always make back when the pandemic has passed.

In fact some of the majority will also pay the price in their own lives as well because if the minority who need intensive care overload the medical system till it collapses like it has in Italy and spain, when some in the majority have life threatening crises like a heart attack or a stroke, there are no ambulances who come in time and no Icu to save their lives.

So I dare say having the majority accept this kind of cost would be the most humane choice we can make as a society unless we have become so selfish that we would rather have our freedom even f it kills out neighbours?

[HodgdonExtreme]

Originally Posted by gitarro

America should have locked down way before this

At any cost?

If not, what is the limit to the cost?

[gitarro]

Originally Posted by Dirk Hofman

I really wonder what the plan is other than lockdown and distancing, and how will it play out? I don’t know that anyone has made that case.

Of course they have. Look at china and South Korea who are emerging from the tunnel on the other side and resuming some semblance of normal life now while the rest of the world is entering lockdown.

[gitarro]

Originally Posted by HodgdonExtreme

At any cost?

If not, what is the limit to the cost?

What is the cost to you of a million dead? Ir a hundred thousand? If you could save them by staying at home for month would you?

[HodgdonExtreme]

Originally Posted by gitarro

What is the cost to you of a million dead? Ir a hundred thousand? If you could save them by staying at home for month would you?

Me, personally staying home? To single handedly save everyone's lives? That's clearly a no brainer.

But me, personally, single-handedly staying home doesn't fix this. 200M-250M people staying home, being non-productive for a month or two *might*. And that is (very) expensive - and not just in dollars, either.

Understand, I'm not advocating anything. Just tossing out some food for thought.

[1neeto]

Everyone is saying “it’s just a month”. This could easily be an indefinitely situation. What if we all come out of our homes and the virus re emerges? What’s gonna happen when the next doomsday bug comes out? How often or for how long we can do this before a complete collapse of the economy?

This will change our way of life way more than 9/11 did.

[gitarro]

Originally Posted by 1neeto

Everyone is saying “it’s just a month”. This could easily be an indefinitely situation. What if we all come out of our homes and the virus re emerges? What’s gonna happen when the next doomsday bug comes out? How often or for how long we can do this before a complete collapse of the economy?

This will change our way of life way more than 9/11 did.

Given that it took 11 years since sars for this ro occur, it seems from the history of pandemics since 1918 that it doesnt happen as regularly as that. But u r rght - life shouldn't go back to how it was before. We need to be better prepared for pandemics.

[gitarro]

Originally Posted by HodgdonExtreme

Me, personally staying home? To single handedly save everyone's lives? That's clearly a no brainer.

But me, personally, single-handedly staying home doesn't fix this. 200M-250M people staying home, being non-productive for a month or two *might*. And that is (very) expensive - and not just in dollars, either.

Understand, I'm not advocating anything. Just tossing out some food for thought.

When I mentioned you stay at home, I of course meant it in tandem with everybody else since one household doing it by itself wouldnt work.

The problem is that we do not really have an alternative course of action for a western style democracy unaccustomed to very high levels of control and obedience to governmental instruction except the containment course of action. UK for example was following the herd immunity model but has just abandoned it and abruptly shifted to containment and lockdown after the imperial college issued a study that showed that the herd immunity model did not work. So we do not have any other options on the table and doing nothing would be catastrophic.

[Kerbie]

To everyone... It would be really nice to have one of these good discussions remain open. The exchange of accurate information is important in this situation. Please offer your opinions respectfully without beating anyone over the head or belaboring your point. Maybe we can keep this thread open for the duration.

[MChild62]

Originally Posted by 1neeto

Everyone is saying “it’s just a month”. This could easily be an indefinitely situation. What if we all come out of our homes and the virus re emerges? What’s gonna happen when the next doomsday bug comes out? How often or for how long we can do this before a complete collapse of the economy?

This will change our way of life way more than 9/11 did.

Yes, life will go on but it will be different. I have a hard time right now imagining how it will be different.

I just received a memo prepared by a cellular biologist in London who has been reviewing the available data, and for Europe he is estimating that the incubation period + asymptomatic carriers likely means we are looking at an approximately 40 day lockdown period in countries here. That's sort of what we're beginning to think here in Italy, that we may begin to see an easing up of some of the lockdown by mid April, but this will be followed by continued social distancing and monitoring. How much or how long is anyone's guess, but estimates roughly run until whenever a vaccine will be available in large numbers, which estimates are putting at end of summer 2021.

A big part of the equation is how early a country starts the heavy measures of lockdown and social-distancing. The longer you wait to take measures, the more drastic they need to be and the longer they will be in place. Different countries are handling this differently.

If anyone is here from Sweden or Russia, it would be interesting to hear their take. It sounds like Sweden is going down a different path, and will not impose a lockdown, and instead will just try to treat infections. Sounds risky, although I'm relying only on a couple of news reports I've seen, and data of limited testing there (apparently not testing because they have limited testing capability). I've also heard that Russia - anecdotally from friends there - are just going to let the virus run its course, but this will not be announced official policy. I'm skeptical, since Russia has a lot of doctors, and are even sending many here to Italy to help.

Also, the "let the virus run its course" is sort what the UK initially planned to do, but as the numbers crept up and data analysis changed, they moved in line with the rest of Europe. So even if that's the plan today, it may not hold when the numbers start to rise and people demand their governments do more.

[rokdog49]

Originally Posted by 1neeto

Everyone is saying “it’s just a month”. This could easily be an indefinitely situation. What if we all come out of our homes and the virus re emerges? What’s gonna happen when the next doomsday bug comes out? How often or for how long we can do this before a complete collapse of the economy?

This will change our way of life way more than 9/11 did.

Globally, hundreds of thousands of people die every year from the flu bug., every year.
That’s a fact.