COVID-19 (Con’t)

[Acousticado]

The previous thread reached its 300 post max. and has been closed. Undoubtedly, threads on this subject will continue, so this new one is in the interest of streamlining an important discussion. The initial thread reasonably followed the rules. Please keep it that way. Carry on.

[Neil K Walk]

What I would like to see from threads like these are more along the lines of realistic and practical ideas that we as individuals and family members can do to keep ourselves and those we love safe. I would also like to see hard data be quoted from reliable sources WHO and the CDC and not conjecture from amateur statisticians who are essentially causing us all to wring our hands in anxiety. I agree that I don't want to see it get political and people pointing fingers at others. That's what Twitter is for.

[ahorsewithnonam]

It is scary that we are mostly just ......hiding from the virus ........through staying in our homes, social distancing. Need to find a cure, a vaccine to at least nullify its effects.

[AX17609]

In Maryland, we are now under house arrest.

[ahorsewithnonam]

Originally Posted by AX17609

In Maryland, we are now under house arrest.

Welcome to the club

[cmd612]

Originally Posted by AX17609

In Maryland, we are now under house arrest.

We're under a stay-at-home order, too. I feel lucky that I CAN stay at home - unlike all the "essential" workers, including health care workers, who are literally risking their lives by just going to work. I'm happy to do my part to try to help.

[Silurian]

Originally Posted by ahorsewithnonam

It is scary that we are mostly just ......hiding from the virus ........through staying in our homes, social distancing. Need to find a cure, a vaccine to at least nullify its effects.

I disagree that we are hiding.

We are breaking the transmission chains, giving the virus nowhere else to go. There is a glimmer of hope in Europe that the curves are levelling off.

Social distancing is the best weapon we have at the moment. We cannot afford to wait for a vaccine.

[HodgdonExtreme]

If infection rate wasn't changing in USA, we would be seeing greater than 20k new daily cases. Instead, we've seen 4 days of steady ~20k new daily cases.

For arguments sake, if that trend of +20k new daily cases continued for the next 4-5 weeks, we'd be looking at a curve something like this:

[6 Strings MI]

So many folks are in forced confinement, yet the virus keeps spreading. That tells me one of two things: either the confinement orders are being defied, or the virus is spreading despite the countermeasures. Those are the factors I've considered, anyway.

[HodgdonExtreme]

Originally Posted by 6 Strings MI

So many folks are in forced confinement, yet the virus keeps spreading. That tells me one of two things: either the confinement orders are being defied, or the virus is spreading despite the countermeasures. Those are the factors I've considered, anyway.

It's important to remember that because time between infection and diagnosis is so long, there is a significant delay (about 2 weeks) between making a change - and seeing any result.

[cmd612]

Originally Posted by 6 Strings MI

So many folks are in forced confinement, yet the virus keeps spreading. That tells me one of two things: either the confinement orders are being defied, or the virus is spreading despite the countermeasures. Those are the factors I've considered, anyway.

Incubation period is up to 2 weeks. Around here, almost no one gets tested unless they're severely ill, at which point they might have already been sick for a couple of weeks. So, many of the "new" cases we're seeing today are in people who got infected two, three, four weeks ago. Not many places in the U.S. were under lockdown at that point.

[rokdog49]

Originally Posted by Neil K Walk

What I would like to see from threads like these are more along the lines of realistic and practical ideas that we as individuals and family members can do to keep ourselves and those we love safe. I would also like to see hard data be quoted from reliable sources WHO and the CDC and not conjecture from amateur statisticians who are essentially causing us all to wring our hands in anxiety. I agree that I don't want to see it get political and people pointing fingers at others. That's what Twitter is for.

I think a bit of common sense would provide what you are seeking, but since your asking...
I suppose you could appoint one family member to be the “errand person”. That would mathematically reduce the opportunity for multiple people going outside and being exposed . At the end of the day, if the errand person gets the virus, it’s likely everyone else in the household will too. Limiting the errands to getting food, vital personal needs and meds...
Realistically, if you are out in public, unless you maintain the minimum “six foot” distancing rule and sanitize everything you touch, before and after,
and wash your hands correctly, you really can’t do much more except hope you don’t get it. I can’t see what else you can do.

[MChild62]

Italy Update - March 30 (6pm press conference Civil Protection Authority)

1,648 new, currently positive cases on 23,329 tests administered. This is a substantial drop as can be seen in the chart below.
812 deaths, still high, nearly 60% of which were in the hard-hit Lombardy region.
3,981 in intensive care (ICU), an increase of 85 people, but only 2 of these are in Lombardy. At the same time, 202 were admitted to hospitals in Lombardy with CV-19 since yesterday but over 1,000 people were discharged from hospitals or declared no longer ill from the virus. The Civil Protection sees this as a sign that social distancing measures are working.

Responding to a question as to whether Italy has "peaked," the answer was that it is hard to say. They prefer to speak of a slowing of the spread, but feel the reduction on intensive care (ICU) is a good sign of the right direction.

6,550 criminal citations for violations of the lockdown, including some who are positive with CV-19. The message during the press conference was that respect of the lockdown and social-distancing is vital for the country, and strict enforcement will continue.

6 clinical studies were launched yesterday for therapies, one of which is a study coordinated by the WHO on pharmacological means of preventing the transmission of CV-19. Another is a randomized study on the treatment of COVID-19 patients at home.

http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/a...c82fe38d4138b1

Screen Shot 2020-03-30 at 6.11.53 PM.jpg

[Tracerbullet]

Originally Posted by 6 Strings MI

So many folks are in forced confinement, yet the virus keeps spreading. That tells me one of two things: either the confinement orders are being defied, or the virus is spreading despite the countermeasures. Those are the factors I've considered, anyway.

Unfortunately the virus has already spread. We are just trying to change the curve. What’s her name form the CDC, it alludes me at the minute said this morning that by the time you see a case in your community it has already permeated your community.
Also the more vigorous your testing policies / procedures the more positive cases you will see.
Never lose sight of the fact that the vast majority, some reports >90 % of people positive will exhibit mild to no symptoms
Carry on

[tbeltrans]

I read of an MIT study that said that 6 feet is not enough distance, that it is more along the lines of 23 - 28 feet. Also, that same study apparently says that the virus can live in the air for several hours and that evidence of the virus has been found in the air ducts near the rooms in hospitals where COVID-19 patients are.

To me, it seems that we don't really know enough solid information yet to truly understand this thing, and folks are doing their best to provide us information as we try to follow what we are being told.

Somebody else may well come up with yet another study that contradicts whatever studies we are going by today.

Tony