COVID-19 Italy numbers and reports

[MChild62]

For those in countries in lockdown now, from Italy here is what the curve may look like as you start the down slope (hoping indeed that's where we are). These charts are from an engineer who is crunching the numbers from the different regions in Italy. https://www.alessandrello.org/coronavirus/

You can see the gradual reduction of the daily percentage increases in new cases (first chart) and the growth rate of new cases vs the "max" of the daily peak (second chart). The green numbers in the first chart are where there have been reductions in numbers three consecutive days.

Data as of April 7

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[MChild62]

Update April 8

Let me start with the good news:

2,099 recovered, which is a record/high point to date.

Only 7.4% positives on over 51,000 tests conducted (16,000 more tests than yesterday).

As for the other data, trend seems to be holding:

1,195 net increase in active/positive cases over yesterday, but testing still increasing.

542 deaths, a continuing decline, but slow.

Number of hospitalized and in ICU's continues to decline.

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[MChild62]

April 9 Update

Downward trend continues but it's really slow, folks. While it's a fast climb up, the other side of the curve seems to be a gentle downward slope.

The media is reporting the government will announce plans to keep the lockdown in place until the end of April, with few changes or relaxation of current (stringent) rules. No surprise. The path out of this isn't overnight.

Today's numbers:

4 out of 5 of the past days (including today) have had a reduction of those hospitalized because of symptoms.
5 past days have all seen a reduction of those in critical care (ICU)

4,204 active cases over yesterday, but the number of tests has increased substantially, with over 46,000 tests yesterday. So 4.2K positives out of 46K tests, or 1 positive out of 10 tests.

610 deaths. Still high, and higher than yesterday. But since numbers in hospital/critical are coming down, even if slowly, this seems a statistical blip and trend should still be downward.

1,979 recovered. Consider that on March 26, daily deaths were considerably higher than the number of those recovered.

An experiment jointly conducted with Oxford has been announced to assess whether chlorochina (the anti-malaria chemical) may give protection to healthcare workers. The authorities are expressing caution rather than optimism about the potential.

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[MChild62]

Healthcare workers in Italy (source: La Nazione newspaper, 10 April)

14,066 with confirmed cases of Covid-19 as of 9 aprile 2020.

107 doctors have lost their lives as of today.

Of the 14,066 diagnosed with Covid-19:
48 years old is average age
67.5% are women
1,022 are hospital workers
117 general practitioners/pediatricians
335 other medical doctors
2,027 nurses
1,466 healthcare/social workers
1,102 other professionals
147 administrative personnel

Identified places of infection:
840 in hospitals/emergency rooms (
141 outpatient assistance
370 home visits
467 nursing/retirement homes

[MChild62]

Update 10 April - lockdown is holding

1,396 net increase in active cases over yesterday.
570 deaths
3,497 in critical care/ICU, 108 fewer than yesterday.
28,242 hospitalized with symptoms, 157 fewer than yesterday

It's painfully slow on the other side of the curve.

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[MChild62]

April 12 Update
This may be what the other side of the curve will look like for western countries that, like Italy, went into lockdowns after the virus was already in community transmission: a peak of numbers followed by a sustained plateau, and only then (with lockdown still in place) slow decline of number of hospitalizations, patients in ICU, and the number of daily deaths (awfully slow to decrease), with a gradual rise of the number of those who have recovered.

Today's numbers:

1,984 net increase in active cases over yesterday.

431 deaths. Still high, but the Civil Protection Authority says we appear to see a consistent, downwards trend.

1,677 recovered since yesterday (declared free of the virus, no longer contagious).

Today is the 9th day in a row the number of patients in critical care (ICU) has decreased, today by 38. The ICU numbers reduce slowly because infections are still increasing, even if slowly, and patients spend weeks in ICU.
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[MChild62]

Music for Hope

Andrea Bocelli accompanied by organ from the Duomo (cathedral) of Milan on Easter Sunday. Wait for the Amazing Grace at the end.

https://youtu.be/huTUOek4LgU

[AmericanEagle]

Originally Posted by MChild62

Wait for the Amazing Grace at the end.

https://youtu.be/huTUOek4LgU

That was amazing!

[MChild62]

Update 13 April 2020

For the holiday weekend, police and coast guard blocked those trying to reach the seaside and second homes through police cars, boats, helicopters, and drones. Here in Florence, police drones were employed over the Cascine (large public park), according to La Nazione (local newspaper).

The main news is that Italy appears to have flattened the curve but, in contrast with news from other countries, will not be announcing any relaxation of the current social distancing/lockdown measures until at least May 3. The only exceptions, in place this week, will be to allow the opening of shops for stationary, books, and children's clothes.

The authorities indicate we need to accept that even in best case scenarios, we will never be at 0 cases, and that in the "Phase 2" (post-lockdown) there will be a need to "re-enforce" the country with resources capable of (a) identifying any new outbreaks, and (b) immediately adopting measures to contain them and prevent any further spread.

Planning for "Phase 2". To avoid supply-chain disruption when the economy resumes, from tomorrow warehouses will be allowed to receive raw materials and other shipments needed for industrial activities. This affects 400,000 containers awaiting at Italy's major country ports. https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/prov...tainer-ADGb8jJ

Today's numbers:

1,363 net increase in active cases over yesterday.
566 deaths.

During the evening press conference of the Civil Protection Authority, the observation was made that the death rate comes down slowly because we are dealing with infections that occurred 20 days ago. First there is an infection, then incubation, then symptoms may lead to hospitalization up to 20 days later, and deaths occur several days after this.

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[MChild62]

April 14 Update - Corrected



2,972 new, active cases on 26K tests administered. In terms of total currently positive, a net increase of 675 over yesterday. This is the lowest net increase since March 10.

602 deaths, still very high, with 20 of those here in Tuscany (which includes Florence, Siena, Pisa, Livorno, Lucca, Grossetto, and the Chianti and Brunello wine regions).

But the number in critical care/ICU, is still going down, just very gradually. Also, we know that the number of deaths at the peak was likely much higher than was being reported, since the system was so overwhelmed, so this should be considered as well.

The leading financial newspaper, Il Sole 24 Ore, reported today that the IMF is predicting a 9% drop in GDP for Italy for 2020 as a result of the coronavirus.

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[MChild62]

Correction:

Many of the daily reports that I've given provide the wrong number for the "new, currently active" cases. Instead of providing the number for new positives, I've reported the number for the net variation over the previous day in currently active cases. This is the key number that Italy is tracking to determine the spread of the virus. But it is not the number of new positives identified each day. Instead, it is a number that includes the new positives less those from previous days who have passed into the "recovered" or "deceased" categories, and are therefore no longer positive/contagious.

I'm correcting the recent posts to note that this is the net variation, not the new positives.

[MChild62]

Here in Italy, some attention is being given to the “Ferrari model”. This is not about which racing car the company will introduce at the next Formula One. Rather, it is a proposal developed in collaboration with the company’s unions and scientists for restarting its industrial operations, and which could be a model for other companies:
1. Eliminating within the company any opportunity for transmission occur: masks, social distancing, and use of other precautions and equipment.
2. Identifying among all workers who has, or has had, the virus.
3. Tracking in real time (including through an app managed by a third party) all those who were in contact with anyone who is positive and intervene immediately… not three days after a test is performed. Ideally, there should be a test with immediate results.
4. Employees found to be positive: isolation of the patient-employee, and her or his family members, with the support of doctors and nurses, facilities for an isolation period, and all other assistance needed for treatment while in isolation, including and pharmacological or, in case of emergency, supply of oxygen.
The implementation will require a special facility with 24-hour medical support available to all employees and families, with tests ready to be administered upon request.