Dizzying prices

[Mattface]

Originally Posted by Rmccamey

You missed the point. The hole/market niche/opportunity requires a more specific sort of the data:

1) $500 - $1500 (new price)
2) Solid wood
3) Made in USA.

If you expand item 3 to be Made in North America, many Godin lines/models would qualify.

A quick search at Musicians friend filtering for that price range and made in USA turns up a decent variety of choices from the following brands



Now to be fair many guitars in that price range will have laminate back and sides, but a. I'm not sure I care, and b. off the top of my head Martin 15 series, and Guild M20 are all solid woods

I'm not seeing a hole I'm seeing lots of great choices, even more choices if you are not overly picky about where your instrument is built. Also North America includes Canada AND Mexico, so that includes all Martin guitars. Here's what we get in that price range when we and Canada and Mexico.



If it were MY list I'd also consider guitars made in Japan, and there are lots of very nice MIJ Yamaha and Takamine guitars in that price range that are all solid wood and will stand up quite nicely alongside made in USA guitars in the same price range. You can get a lot of instrument for fifteen hundred bucks.

[tadol]

Originally Posted by Rmccamey

There are lots of examples. The Swiss watchmaking industry was devastated by one of their own inventions, the quartz movement (electronic) watch. Texas Instruments and Seiko saw opportunities the Swiss themselves were too close to see and ultimately TI and Seiko took most of the entire world market for watches.

And yet, there is still very high demand for high quality mechanical movement time-pieces - and they are very far from inexpensive - $130,000 for a watch you have to wind yourself, and all it does is tell the time? I only paid. Etc . Etc . Etc .

The one thing I do not see being mentioned is material costs - they have gone up astronomically for premium material. Especially responsibly harvested or reclaimed materials. Labor costs have gone up a great deal too - as noted, the cost of a house, and a car, have gone up dramatically, and many younger luthiers would like to own one of each someday. The costs associated with shop space, and tooling are much higher too. And the number of shops building has gone way up, so marketing and promotion costs are higher.

List price on a Martin D45 with braz rw is $45,000 - I’ll admit I’ve never played a new braz rw Martin, but I would MUCH rather buy a SCGC, or a FB, or almost anything else - I know the quality of those, and I know the quality of service and attention you get from those shops.

Find what you like, pay what you can - its a personal choice as to what your priorities are, and for $1-3,000 dollars, there are more really great guitars available than there have ever been. And as noted, with the prices one has to pay for most anything else of quality, thats a great bargain for the instruments you can choose from. You just have to decide how important a good guitar is in your life. But once the house is paid for, the kids are through with college and you’ve got a little extra in the bank, it’s a stretch, but some of those $8-15,000 instruments can make, and keep, you very happy for the rest of your life -

[hifivic]

Been following this thread for a while now and one thing that I don't believe was mentioned is the fact that a handmade instrument is a marvelous piece of art. One generally doesn't question an artists prices, if the piece is too expensive for ones taste you simply move on. Is a handmade instrument any different or a Isaia $5000.00 sports coat any different?

[Robin, Wales]

The "hole in the market" comment was originally pointing out that the cost of USA made guitars from the major brands has outpaced the CPI and wage growth by 3 to 10 multiples. The example being that Martin and Gibsons standard models, made in the USA, should be <$1000 given comparative cost and wage rises across all sectors since 1940.

Now, you could say that there are lots of sector specific costs that make guitar manufacturing a special case. Except that Godin, a very large enterprise just across the boarder in Canada (with comparative costs and wages to the US) is managing to make its solid wood models at the same relative price as 1930s and 40s guitars.

At present, the US guitar industry has not managed to do so, simply because they don't need to (over-reliance on brand identity/loyalty, inefficiency in production etc). The market is out of kilter. Martin and Gibson are out of kilter. It is perfectly possible to build a D-18 type guitar in a mainland USA manufacturing unit to retail around $1000 and other models in other wood choices too. The big "names" can't undercut themselves now; they're trapped.

And so there is the hole in the market that will sometime be filled either by one of the "names" completely restructuring or a new player. If I was a betting man then I'd say that a company like Deering Banjos may peek over the wall and have a punt at making solid workhorse "made in the USA" guitars.

[MWB5007]

Something that is rarely noted in these threads about high price vs value, and this is largely thanks to forums and communities like AGF and the (fairly) transparent resale market they facilitate ....

There is the price of an instrument and then there is it's cost: By that I mean a $10k guitar kept in excellent condition may carry a 5 figure price but it is also a considerable asset which can be liquidated to reclaim much of its original price.

SO if someone takes a 25% loss on their purchase of that $10k guitar but plays it for 10 years and then reclaims $7,500 from the sale of the guitar his/her "cost" is $2,500.

Apply those numbers to a used high end instrument such as can be safely found here and it looks more like $6,000 price / $1,200 Cost for 10 years. That's about the price of 2 hour long lessons each year for the privilege of playing a "$10,000" guitar.

From that perspective it does not look as expensive, although it is admittedly simply looking at the same facts from a different perspective.

[Rmccamey]

Your links or pics did not show up on my screen Matt. But, if the list contains units with laminate back and sides or those made in Canada or Mexico, they would not meet the search criteria. The Martin 15 series might make the cut ( I didn't look at the specs) and the Guild M50 looks to be an excellent guitar, although it sits at the very top of the price range. If all North America is included, then as was stated, many Godin models would fit the criteria but still not all Martin's would be included as many of theirs exceed the $1500 price.

My point is that if you use the search criteria given, the list gets pretty short and thus gives at least one sign of a gap or opportunity in the market.

Originally Posted by Mattface

A quick search at Musicians friend filtering for that price range and made in USA turns up a decent variety of choices from the following brands



Now to be fair many guitars in that price range will have laminate back and sides, but a. I'm not sure I care, and b. off the top of my head Martin 15 series, and Guild M20 are all solid woods

I'm not seeing a hole I'm seeing lots of great choices, even more choices if you are not overly picky about where your instrument is built. Also North America includes Canada AND Mexico, so that includes all Martin guitars. Here's what we get in that price range when we and Canada and Mexico.



If it were MY list I'd also consider guitars made in Japan, and there are lots of very nice MIJ Yamaha and Takamine guitars in that price range that are all solid wood and will stand up quite nicely alongside made in USA guitars in the same price range. You can get a lot of instrument for fifteen hundred bucks.

[Rmccamey]

I never said that electronic watches eliminated all demand for high quality mechanical movement watches, but when 80% of Swiss watch workers were laid off in a 10 year period, it certainly had an impact.

Originally Posted by tadol

And yet, there is still very high demand for high quality mechanical movement time-pieces - and they are very far from inexpensive - $130,000 for a watch you have to wind yourself, and all it does is tell the time? I only paid. Etc . Etc . Etc .

The one thing I do not see being mentioned is material costs - they have gone up astronomically for premium material. Especially responsibly harvested or reclaimed materials. Labor costs have gone up a great deal too - as noted, the cost of a house, and a car, have gone up dramatically, and many younger luthiers would like to own one of each someday. The costs associated with shop space, and tooling are much higher too. And the number of shops building has gone way up, so marketing and promotion costs are higher.

List price on a Martin D45 with braz rw is $45,000 - I’ll admit I’ve never played a new braz rw Martin, but I would MUCH rather buy a SCGC, or a FB, or almost anything else - I know the quality of those, and I know the quality of service and attention you get from those shops.

Find what you like, pay what you can - its a personal choice as to what your priorities are, and for $1-3,000 dollars, there are more really great guitars available than there have ever been. And as noted, with the prices one has to pay for most anything else of quality, thats a great bargain for the instruments you can choose from. You just have to decide how important a good guitar is in your life. But once the house is paid for, the kids are through with college and you’ve got a little extra in the bank, it’s a stretch, but some of those $8-15,000 instruments can make, and keep, you very happy for the rest of your life -

[Rmccamey]

Excellent summary, Robin, well stated.

Originally Posted by Robin, Wales

The "hole in the market" comment was originally pointing out that the cost of USA made guitars from the major brands has outpaced the CPI and wage growth by 3 to 10 multiples. The example being that Martin and Gibsons standard models, made in the USA, should be <$1000 given comparative cost and wage rises across all sectors since 1940.

Now, you could say that there are lots of sector specific costs that make guitar manufacturing a special case. Except that Godin, a very large enterprise just across the boarder in Canada (with comparative costs and wages to the US) is managing to make its solid wood models at the same relative price as 1930s and 40s guitars.

At present, the US guitar industry has not managed to do so, simply because they don't need to (over-reliance on brand identity/loyalty, inefficiency in production etc). The market is out of kilter. Martin and Gibson are out of kilter. It is perfectly possible to build a D-18 type guitar in a mainland USA manufacturing unit to retail around $1000 and other models in other wood choices too. The big "names" can't undercut themselves now; they're trapped.

And so there is the hole in the market that will sometime be filled either by one of the "names" completely restructuring or a new player. If I was a betting man then I'd say that a company like Deering Banjos may peek over the wall and have a punt at making solid workhorse "made in the USA" guitars.

[LakewoodM32Fan]

Originally Posted by Robin, Wales

At present, the US guitar industry has not managed to do so, simply because they don't need to (over-reliance on brand identity/loyalty, inefficiency in production etc). The market is out of kilter. Martin and Gibson are out of kilter. It is perfectly possible to build a D-18 type guitar in a mainland USA manufacturing unit to retail around $1000 and other models in other wood choices too. The big "names" can't undercut themselves now; they're trapped.

Excellent summary. I agree fully. They don't need to.

Martin, Taylor, (I don't follow Gibson) none of them are "throttling back" their production -- outside of how the pandemic has affected everyone, that is -- they are still making what they can, and selling their guitars at these prices.

Who among us, if you could only make say 50 of anything in a month, but were guaranteed that you could sell all of them for $500 or $200 each, would voluntarily go with 200. Now one can debate the relative merits of capitalism (I'd rather not) but that's how the system works. Supply. Demand. If Martin and Taylor can make product to their capacity, and price and sell it at their current rates, who are we (or anyone) to demand that they lower their prices? Please name another luxury consumer good (which is what a guitar is) where it works this way, when a company can successfully sell most of its product at X price, but has voluntarily reduced prices by half or more.

Rmccamey you keep bringing up dire examples of where companies failed to adapt and lost market sales by failing to change prices to meet a changing reality. But that is not what's happening with Martin and Taylor (outside, again of the pandemic). Last I checked both companies were doing quite well at their price ranges.

And again, to bring it all back to the OP's point, which mentioned Froggys and the other boutique builders charging what they do, the original point which is being lost among the academic exercise of "could a USA built guitar be priced at $1K" is: people want boutique guitars at mass market prices. And that's just simply not going to happen. If Martin and Taylor can successfully move their products at $2k-$5k easily, why shouldn't the boutique builders price themselves above that, as long as they're successfully moving inventory?

This all feels like manufactured drama to complain about high prices. Which is fine. I too would love to own double or triple the boutique guitars I do if they'd lower their prices. But I also understand why they don't. I don't like it. But I understand it.

[Mattface]

Originally Posted by Rmccamey

Your links or pics did not show up on my screen Matt. But, if the list contains units with laminate back and sides or those made in Canada or Mexico, they would not meet the search criteria. The Martin 15 series might make the cut ( I didn't look at the specs) and the Guild M50 looks to be an excellent guitar, although it sits at the very top of the price range. If all North America is included, then as was stated, many Godin models would fit the criteria but still not all Martin's would be included as many of theirs exceed the $1500 price.

My point is that if you use the search criteria given, the list gets pretty short and thus gives at least one sign of a gap or opportunity in the market.

And I'd argue that your criteria are somewhat arbitrary, and may not be as important to everyone as they are to you. Price point is certainly important to most everyone, and I love to buy made in America when I can. Seems like guitar manufacturing is doing better than most industries in that regard, but I would certainly be happy buying a high quality instrument from Japan, and I think a lot of folks would, and I do believe good craftsmanship can come from any corner of the world. As for making a big deal of solid back and sides, I would argue I'd rather have a great guitar with laminate back and sides than a mediocre guitar that is all solid wood, so I would not personally make that a deal breaker. Yes when you insist on Made in USA, All Solid woods, both of which cost money for under $1500 your options diminish. A little like the old saying: Price, Quality, Speed, pick two, you can't have all three, your options will get much better if you relax one of those three criteria.

Even so I'll play along and point out that even with your overly restrictive criteria. There are still several brands I can easily find with US made all solid instruments inder $1500 to choose from:

Martin 15 series (under a grand)
Taylor Urban Ash
Larivee 40 series (Made in California)
Guild M20
Breedlove USA (can be found online open box under that price)

[Mattface]

Originally Posted by Robin, Wales

The "hole in the market" comment was originally pointing out that the cost of USA made guitars from the major brands has outpaced the CPI and wage growth by 3 to 10 multiples. The example being that Martin and Gibsons standard models, made in the USA, should be <$1000 given comparative cost and wage rises across all sectors since 1940.

Wages in the US have stagnated since the 1980s, not only have the not kept pace with inflation, they have not NEARLY kept pace with the cost of living. Price of fuel has quadrupled, cost of the average home has increased 8 fold, cost of a college degree, healthcare costs have exploded, etc. I'm making about what my parents were at my age, but I certainly can't buy a 3 bedroom house for 40k like they did. Also relevant to this topic, the cost of materials like high quality solid woods has also gone WAY up. Most manufacturing companies pay almost nothing for manufacturing labor which is why it's so appealing to manufacture overseas, and in fact the cost of a decent playable guitar has gone DOWN since the 1980s, but the cost of a quality hand made instrument, where the people who are making it are paid a good wage have gone up which is as it should be given that the costs for that person to feed shelter and clothe themselves have also gone up.

Which is not to say that I don't find the price of boutique guitars kind of crazy, but that has more to do with my inability to afford them. I certainly don't begrudge a luthier being able to be well paid for their craft, and also I think it's important to reflect for a second. When it comes to the availability of affordable great sounding guitars we have NOTHING to complain about. The quality of what you can get new for $200 is astounding. A 00-17 would set you back $100 in 1957. That's $957 in 2020 dollars. Today you can get a very nice guitar for a quarter of that, but you can also get a 15 series Martin for just about exactly that price, A D-28 was $270 which adjusted for inflation would be $2500 today, so Maybe Martin is not doing such a bad job after all at keeping prices in line with inflation. Meanwhile folks who can't afford a new Made in USA Martin have way more and better choices than their counterpart in 1957 would have had, including made in Mexico Martins, and Yamahas that will blow the doors off your average starter economy guitar from half a century ago. If we are seriously crying over guitars not being affordable in 2020 because we can't personally afford a Bourgeois guitar, I think that's the very definition of a first world problem.

[TDavis]

I'm late to the party here, but it's the feeling I get when I look at a boutique guitar on AGF, and I automatically dismiss the chance of me ever owning one because of the price point, even used! I really would love to have a Collings OM1, but I simply don't have the $4500+ that it takes to buy one.

I'm very happy with my "ordinary" Martin guitars, but even they are priced at the upper point of my financial abilities.

I guess it's all relative with inflation and all...some real, some invented. I'm in the car business, and I've had tons of people look at the sticker price of a truck or car and say "my first house cost less than that!!".

[Rmccamey]

I provided one example of an industry that missed a market opportunity, not because they didn't lower prices on their current (at the time) production but because they failed to take advantage of a market opportunity that would have allowed them to increase both market share and profits. I'm not suggesting the Fender's, Gibson's ...change what they are doing with current production or prices. I'm suggesting that the Fender/Gibson...may be overlooking a market opportunity that would allow them to increase both their market share and profits. As Matt's list shows (thanks Matt), the list of guitars that meet those 3 criteria is pretty small and if Godin can produce so many models/lines/series of $500-$1500, MICan, solid wood acoustic guitars in Canada it seems reasonable to think that a) such a market does exist and b) Fender/Gibson...should also be able to build and market $500-$1500, MIA, solid wood acoustic guitar models/lines/series.

Originally Posted by LakewoodM32Fan

Excellent summary. I agree fully. They don't need to.

Martin, Taylor, (I don't follow Gibson) none of them are "throttling back" their production -- outside of how the pandemic has affected everyone, that is -- they are still making what they can, and selling their guitars at these prices.

Who among us, if you could only make say 50 of anything in a month, but were guaranteed that you could sell all of them for $500 or $200 each, would voluntarily go with 200. Now one can debate the relative merits of capitalism (I'd rather not) but that's how the system works. Supply. Demand. If Martin and Taylor can make product to their capacity, and price and sell it at their current rates, who are we (or anyone) to demand that they lower their prices? Please name another luxury consumer good (which is what a guitar is) where it works this way, when a company can successfully sell most of its product at X price, but has voluntarily reduced prices by half or more.

Rmccamey you keep bringing up dire examples of where companies failed to adapt and lost market sales by failing to change prices to meet a changing reality. But that is not what's happening with Martin and Taylor (outside, again of the pandemic). Last I checked both companies were doing quite well at their price ranges.

And again, to bring it all back to the OP's point, which mentioned Froggys and the other boutique builders charging what they do, the original point which is being lost among the academic exercise of "could a USA built guitar be priced at $1K" is: people want boutique guitars at mass market prices. And that's just simply not going to happen. If Martin and Taylor can successfully move their products at $2k-$5k easily, why shouldn't the boutique builders price themselves above that, as long as they're successfully moving inventory?

This all feels like manufactured drama to complain about high prices. Which is fine. I too would love to own double or triple the boutique guitars I do if they'd lower their prices. But I also understand why they don't. I don't like it. But I understand it.

[Mr. Jelly]

Originally Posted by rokdog49

I’m pretty tired of the “unemployment mantra.” that seems to be pervasive.

It's not political it's the data. As an investor the proof is in the pudding not what I think or feel.

[Tony Burns]

My advice has always been not to work up the ladder and buy the best you can afford
-basically because its a good investment .( if bought used and your picky )

If you keep your guitars & not be finicky and jump from one guitar to the next -
its always good advice -Until now.
a guitar Ive boughten in the past for about 2 grand could be like 5-6 grand -
which would not be an advisable purchase .

I say buy it used , do not buy it online ( unless you know the seller and trust them )

Now is the best time to sell not buy -

keep what you have and wait !