Corona Virus Disease

[fumei]

This is not a pandemic...yet. It could very well end up as one. It could end up and a new regular seasonal respiratory virus. We do not know.

The mortality rate may, or may not, be higher than "normal" flu. Mortality rate is a factor of deaths and total cases. I suspect that the number of cases is MUCH higher than reported, in which case the mortality rate is lower.

Italy (at last number) was 7 deaths in some 400 cases. That is crazy high, and likely not accurate. Again I suspect the number of actual cases is higher.

IF:

7 death per 400 case - we SHOULD be terrified
7 death per 4,000 cases - we should be quite concerned
7 death per 20,000 cases - serious but not panic

It also should be noted that, mostly, the death are happening to people with existing health issues.

All that aside, it does seem to be now spreading globally, which is bad news. China tried to do containment, but IMO that did not succeed. It is now out. Countries (and people) need to start seriously thinking about not containment, but about the handling of testing and treatment. And of course a vaccine.

[HodgdonExtreme]

I found this fairly enlightening. Pro tip: click the gear icon in the lower right, and change "playback speed" to 1.5X to speed video up a bit. Worthy of a watch, I think.

[oldwasichu]

I think it's the most over-hyped news story. Just another flu strain in my opinion. Not worried one bit about it.

[Jeremy]

Originally Posted by tbeltrans

Every time I read about the stock market, I seem to see the word "fear". If the market is going well, then the "fear" is that it can't continue doing well. If ANYTHING happens in the world, then there is "fear" and the stock market drops. What comes to mind is that old saying "a coward dies many deaths".

My wife wanted me to stock up on food when I went grocery shopping this weekend, so I did. She watches a lot of youtube videos and gets all fired up about "dese guys and dose guys" in politics, and now the corona virus. I have no idea what is going to happen to me even for the rest of today, much less tomorrow. I could spend my time worrying, but would rather get real sound information and then decide what, if anything, I need to do.

So far, all I have heard on Public Radio is to stock up on food (already done) and stay in touch with family members to work out who will take care of whom if somebody gets sick. If we die, well the neighbors will have plenty to eat.

Fear mongering doesn't do anybody any good.

Tony

I am reminded of the tagline of the Steven Soderbergh movie Contagion: "Nothing spreads like fear."

[rokdog49]

Originally Posted by oldwasichu

I think it's the most over-hyped news story. Just another flu strain in my opinion. Not worried one bit about it.

I am inclined to agree.
Here are some numbers that are not “ in the news” and yet you will be startled:

2019 Global Deaths from Traffic accidents per day -3287
Drug overdose deaths in the United States in 2017 - 70,000
2019 Global Homicides excluding wars - 484,000

The list goes on and on...

[guitar george]

China is taking it seriously. They built this 1,000 bed hospital in 10 days. That's gotta be the record for time taken to build a hospital.

[imwjl]

Originally Posted by Dr. Spivey

Corona is not beer.

On a serious note, a friend was in Vegas 2 weeks ago and observed a lot of Asians out and about wearing masks.

That was very common prior to this discovery. Some people I work with and my brother works with just consider it courtesy if they're sick and common sense if not.

As a layman continues to follow stuff from experts I know, one points out that flu-like alone is a public health issue to worry about, and another pointed out that it appears it might live in fecal matter unlike many other viruses that are a respiratory disease.

The death rate does not seem as high as feared but still an issue. More to think about and worth studying is zoonosis issue.

Maybe I need to look at some break room TV or emotive nonsense pundit stuff I don't usually follow because I don't get that it's hyped or there being hysteria with the traditional and historically quality news sources I usually follow.

My Facebook feed gets some stuff "friends" post that is nonsense.

[imwjl]

Originally Posted by rokdog49

I am inclined to agree.
Here are some numbers that are not “ in the news” and yet you will be startled:

2019 Global Deaths from Traffic accidents per day -3287
Drug overdose deaths in the United States in 2017 - 70,000
2019 Global Homicides excluding wars - 484,000

The list goes on and on...

Yes, I wish more would realize traffic accidents are huge cost and problem they are but we've are at a moment where we might see huge improvements. All the US cars will have AEB soon.

A famous public health researcher friend and the cousin who's studied emerging infectious disease have posted CFR of 2.3% saying that's enough to be plenty worried about if we have a pandemic. Also that it doesn't take a lot for the health care systems in most nations to be over capacity.

I'm not losing sleep over this but we're caring for two elderly family members so I did remember there are a few N95 masks on my work bench or in a tool box I don't use often.

[Silly Moustache]

I AM concerned. I'm concerned every winter as I'm one of those most vulnerable - old (72 next month) compromised throat and nasal passages and Bronchiecstasis, and need to visit my hospital regularly for check ups which means long waits in crowded waiting rooms.

It is most likely that my next bout of flu will take me out, although I'd rather be taken out more quickly by the husband of a beautiful young woman who has just seduced me.

It is "just" another strain of an influenza virus, but then so was Spanish flu after WW1.

I guess this will be renamed "Chinese flu" after a while.

On t'other hand it could turn out to be the 4th horseman of the apocalypse and clear out all us ol' baby boomers and what with that do for the price of a good guitar?
(my pension fund dropped by 5% in the last 24 hours!) Hmph!

[The Watchman]

Even if you personally dont get sick from it, its the secondary impacts that are why governments are taking measures to control it and people are in a panic. That is, with thousands and thousands people in a local area are sick, they cant work, businesses shut down, factories close, restaurants close, schools close, people dont earn money, rent not paid, businesses fail, etc. Hospitals, full of sick flu patients, dont have room for your broken leg or cardio problem, or have the staff to take care of people - they're out sick too. Police and fire and utility workers out sick. There's no back up plan for a sick-out that widespread. That's why focus is on containment.

Take that to a regional or country-wide level and you have a world economy taking a hit. That means no tips in your tip jar, if you can find a gig.

Sure most people are surviving it like just another bout of the flu, but there's still an impact.

The family of coronaviruses has been around for a long time, causing colds. This one variety has mutated to be highly contagious, is what makes it different.

[robj144]

Originally Posted by rokdog49

I am inclined to agree.
Here are some numbers that are not “ in the news” and yet you will be startled:

2019 Global Deaths from Traffic accidents per day -3287
Drug overdose deaths in the United States in 2017 - 70,000
2019 Global Homicides excluding wars - 484,000

The list goes on and on...

I used to think it wasn't a big deal, but now I'm starting to think it might be. The CDC seems to take it seriously. San Fran has already declared a state of emergency to prepare. Italy is locked down. It's spreading through Iran right now too.

A scientist at Harvard estimates 40% to 70% of the planet will contract the virus in the next year. So, that's 3 billion people at his low estimate. The mortality rate is hard to pin down, but very conservatively, it's 2%. 2% of 3 billion is 60+ MILLION people dead in a year, which would dwarf all of those numbers by a substantial amount. In fact, if you add all the deaths attributed to "non-natural" causes (maybe everything except old age), I would think 60+ million would dwarf it by quite a bit.

[TJE"]

Originally Posted by robj144

I used to think it wasn't a big deal, but now I'm starting to think it might be. The CDC seems to take it seriously. San Fran has already declared a state of emergency to prepare. Italy is locked down. It's spreading through Iran right now too.

A scientist at Harvard estimates 40% to 70% of the planet will contract the virus in the next year. So, that's 3 billion people at his low estimate. The mortality rate is hard to pin down, but very conservatively, it's 2%. 2% of 3 billion is 60+ MILLION people dead in a year, which would dwarf all of those numbers by a substantial amount. In fact, if you add all the deaths attributed to "non-natural" causes (maybe everything except old age), I would think 60+ million would dwarf it by quite a bit.

It probably sounds a bit cold & brutal but if I got it, as a reasonably fit, non elderly person, I would be somewhat reassured by the low mortality rate and the fact that it seems affect people with pre-existing resparetiry(sic) relatedconditions the most.

That said no media source that I have seen has commented on whether it leaves any lasting damage to infected people who don't die from it - or whether they completely recover

[Mr. Jelly]

Covid-19 is not going to stop anytime soon. It's a game changer that has already changed the game and most don't know it yet. There are more cases outside of China than in Chine right now. Wash your hands often. Make your plans and get prepared. It's spreading like wildfire and at this rate it'll be in your neighbor hood within two months. It can take over a month to incubate in a person. That means many people that have it are traveling the world infecting people and they may not get sick for another month.

As for investing my #1 rule is that the stock market is controlled by "Irrational Exuberance". I invested for an event like this so I'm making a killing right now.

[Fogducker]

It's a little bit afield but I remember telling a friend, after a morbid-like conversation, that when your number comes up, it's up. To which he replied "....but what if its the pilot's number? That ain't my number"

I'm taking normal precautions and am not worrying about stuff, if it comes up that is just the way it is!

Fog

[DesertTwang]

Originally Posted by catdaddy

The mortality rate has been steady at about 2% which is slightly less than what was seen in the 1918 influenza pandemic.

That is not correct. The "Spanish Flu" pandemic of 1918 killed 3% of the entire world's population. Not just 3% of those who contracted it. The pandemic claimed three times more lives than WWI, which had ended that same year.

COVID-19 and the Spanish Flu are completely different beasts, though, because the lethality of COVID-19 is not even close to that of H1N1, the strain that caused the Spanish Flu pandemic, which disproportionately affected young, healthy individuals.

The reasons for this are only beginning to be understood and quite fascinating. Here are a couple of articles I wrote about the research of one of our faculty members who specialize in this type of research:

https://uanews.arizona.edu/story/why...u-matters-most

A paper he published in 2016 made a big splash as it overturned some long-held "wisdom:"

https://uanews.arizona.edu/story/bir...s-flu-pandemic