Corona Virus Disease

[buddyhu]

From an article published today in The NY Times:

“ It has been nearly three months since the first cases of a new coronavirus pneumonia appeared in Wuhan, China, and it is now a global outbreak. And yet, despite over 80,000 infections worldwide (most of them in China), the world still doesn’t have a clear picture of some of the most basic information about this outbreak.

In recent weeks, a smattering of scientific papers and government statements have begun to sketch the outlines of the epidemic. The Chinese national health commission has reported that more than 1,700 medical workers in the country had contracted the virus as of Feb 14. (That’s alarming). The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that some 80 percent of those infected have a mild illness. (That’s comforting). Earlier this week, a joint W.H.O.-China mission announced that the death rate in Wuhan was 2 to 4 percent, but only .7 percent in the rest of China — a difference that makes little scientific sense.”

And,

“ there were hundreds of people who tested positive aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship and were transferred to the hospital. But there has been little public information released about what shape they were in. How many in the cohort were really sick, how many just had minor symptoms and how many just needed isolation? Does the pattern of infection suggest a role for transmission via plumbing on the ship?

Finally, the world’s public health researchers need much more transparency about how officials are monitoring this epidemic. What exactly is China’s surveillance strategy among the general population? To gauge the actual death rate of Covid-19, researchers would need to know how many people actually have it, even if they have only mild symptoms. In-country surveillance may reveal a very large pool of people with mild or no symptoms at all.

Dr. Lipkin noted that because cases noted early in an epidemic are the most severe, early mortality estimates tend to be high. As more information comes out, the death rates are likely to fall. “We’re probably six months out from having a good picture and when we do I’d guess the mortality will drop dramatically,” he said.”

[TBman]

Where's the travel ban?

[Tracerbullet]

There are some restrictions on travel
Check the CDC website.

[imwjl]

I'm looking forward to the project post-mortem as it's sometimes called in my work.

One curiosity is the cousin I think I mentioned earlier - career in emerging infectious diseases - would for years bring up stuff some considered paranoia or far reaching but the work was about preparedness as much as knowledge of the disease. Her area in NIH (under HSS) was cut in recent years and I thought about that with new of the evacuation from Japan.

At the moment the finance ramifications are really interesting. I'm sure I'm not the only boomer who got some retirement fund ouch in recent days. For some companies this is a short-term supply issue but the selloff is also generating news the shows me other weakness. Some correction is probably appropriate. For economic health, we might see something possibly better - more resilient supply chains.

Maybe we'll have pharma companies more at less sexy but important stuff like vaccines?

Last night I wasted time with my Facebook feed and a Friday task I do took my by TV I don't usually watch. That was a better understanding of how some say this is being hyped but honestly, that stuff was all garbage - click bait and pundits. The bit of major network, PBS, NPR & BBC I caught were full of the informative stuff being posted here.

News of store hoarding is no surprise. It happens a lot more than gets in the news. I'm an IT director in food and food retailing. National and local news on health, weather and other things always create bumps and dips. One of our grocery stores is a few blocks from a mass shooting that occurred this week and that impacted sales for a day. Sports events do too.

Good news to me is most healthy people are surviving it, and all the world wide attention has me hopeful that we'll have a vaccine or much knowledge soon. Research often has tangents with other good discoveries. Again, the history books or overall project post-mortem will be very interesting!

[Mr. Jelly]

As far as the economy and the economic impact this is a different animal. Going forward there will be a supply side problem. Not a demand problem as most all historical economic issues have been. Governments and the Feds have ways to create demand, as in giving away money. They don't have any way to create supply. Workers can not congregate to produce. Prices will increase as items become scarce. This is something to think about.

[Silly Moustache]

A positive diagnosis of a carrier 30 miles away from me :

a man from Surrey caught the virus - became the first person to be infected within the UK. He had not been abroad recently - unlike the other cases in the UK.

Officials are trying to trace people who had contact with him. Health Centre, which he attended, has now reopened after "deep cleaning".

He has been transferred to a specialist NHS infection centre at Guy's and St Thomas' Hospital in central London.

[Eric S.]

My feelings on the subject.

[Riverwolf]

Originally Posted by Eric S.

My feelings on the subject.

And soon we will be calling it "Captain Trips".

[Nyghthawk]

If you are dreaming of Mother Abigail...it's too late! LOL!

[1neeto]

Originally Posted by Riverwolf

And soon we will be calling it "Captain Trips".

Probably my favorite SK movie.

In all seriousness, the first US death was just reported.

[robj144]

Hand sanitizer is basically sold out just everywhere already.

[David Eastwood]

Originally Posted by robj144

Hand sanitizer is basically sold out just everywhere already.

And good old soap and water will do very nicely, just about everywhere.

[robj144]

Originally Posted by eatswodo

And good old soap and water will do very nicely, just about everywhere.

Very true. It's what I always do. Can't say the same for many that use the bathroom though.

[fumei]

Washing hands is the #1 thing to do. That said, I can not always get to a facility, so I do carry hand sanitizer with me.

Part of the public health protocol is testing. Apparently the hospital here in Vancouver has done more than double the total amount of testing done in the entire United States. If this is accurate...uh, guys, you better get with the program. If there is an outbreak, even a small small one, you will need some serious catching up to do. Testing is not only for finding people WITH the virus, but confirming those who DO NOT. Like health care providers.

[robj144]

Originally Posted by fumei

Washing hands is the #1 thing to do. That said, I can not always get to a facility, so I do carry hand sanitizer with me.

Part of the public health protocol is testing. Apparently the hospital here in Vancouver has done more than double the total amount of testing done in the entire United States. If this is accurate...uh, guys, you better get with the program. If there is an outbreak, even a small small one, you will need some serious catching up to do. Testing is not only for finding people WITH the virus, but confirming those who DO NOT. Like health care providers.

Better get some more sanitizer now.