Will guitar prices go down after the pandemic?

[Silly Moustache]

Prices go down? Really? I'd never experienced that!

I'm being facetious, of course, but sadly the virus is unlikely to disappear any time soon.

I have long suspected that the "high dollar" guitars that many of us own and/or covet may lose resale value as the baby boomer generation inevitably fade away, as the younger folk, won't have the same romantic connection with those instruments that we old folks gazed at in shop windows and the pictures no 12" albums etc.

We'll see !

[bufflehead]

Originally Posted by JackB1

I understand prices are high right now due to high demand and low supply. So you think prices will come back down after we get back to "normal" whenever that is? It seems like average guitar prices for desirable models, like a J45 or D18 are up around $500 from where they were last year.

I've never known guitar prices to go down. In 1973 I had to choose between a new Martin D 18 that cost $450 and a new Guild D 25 that cost $240. I've given up on waiting for those prices to come down.

(The guitar shop threw in a set of strings, an A=440 tuning fork, and an elastic capo when I bought the Guild, by the way.)

[Steve DeRosa]

I doubt it...

[383roller]

I think modern/intermediate guitars may settle down a little, but the guitars that supply numbers haven’t changed in decades will only go up.

[wguitar]

As I ponder this question further, it occurred to me that waiting for prices to come down before buying a guitar is akin to trying to time the stock market (something discouraged by financial advisors for the most part). Supply and demand will determine prices, so presuming supply will go up once guitar builders/manufacturers are able to return to increased (and even full) production levels, the real question becomes the degree of pent up demand for guitars. If there is, then prices will likely remain where they are, but if demand is flat or softens then you'll start seeing more sales, purchase incentives, discounts, etc. as builders/manufacturers try to reduce their inventory.

[Fatfinger McGee]

I actually know the answer to this question based on a highly sophisticated tool I built called Computer Optimization Inference Numerification. You turn it on with a quick flip of your finger, and COIN will give you the answer. When you get tired of everyone speculating about what MIGHT happen, just paypal me $10 for your copy.

[JackB1]

I'm thinking that all this talk about the used market being flooded with unwanted Covid guitars won't have much of an impact on most of us here. Most first time guitar buyers stick to <$300 Yamaha's and the like. I woudn't expect a whole bunch of J45's to show up

[BluesKing777]

Here is a photo from Facebook from a music shop near me - they were only selling online while we were in full lockdown and they were skun!

I assume most bought will get sold, once the owners work out that firstly, guitarplaying is hard, the shop won't take them back, won't sell them and they need to find another place to sell!

The Maton Wall, usually well stocked, down to bare wall during lockdown and now getting replenished as the Maton factory pumps them out:





BluesKing777.

[Scotso]

Post pandemic used prices= bear market. Used prices down. Used volume up. I just sold a 2015 Gibson 345 custom for $800 more than I paid for it new. This never happens unless it is the top of the market.

[vc1]

Originally Posted by Silly Moustache

I have long suspected that the "high dollar" guitars that many of us own and/or covet may lose resale value as the baby boomer generation inevitably fade away, as the younger folk, won't have the same romantic connection with those instruments that we old folks gazed at in shop windows and the pictures no 12" albums etc.

We'll see !

As a younger person, I would agree with this. To me, I don't value something more just because it's vintage or made in a certain country. I also don't really know any "collectors" of guitars -- but that might just be because we have less spare cash

[Fatfinger McGee]

Originally Posted by Silly Moustache

I have long suspected that the "high dollar" guitars that many of us own and/or covet may lose resale value as the baby boomer generation inevitably fade away, as the younger folk, won't have the same romantic connection with those instruments that we old folks gazed at in shop windows and the pictures no 12" albums etc.

We'll see !

This is also suspected by many in other vintage collectible areas, like motorcycles and politics. On the other hand, when the boomers die off it will be the largest wealth transfer in history, and some of it will go to folks who could only afford a $300 Yamaha but wanted that Collings so, so bad.

[catndahats]

Short term supply -vs- demand.
During the shutdowns many builders either shut down or worked smaller crews, and supply dwindled.
With new buyers in the market, and more experienced players upgrading, I think that pushed new and used prices up as well as new prices holding firm.

Watched a podcast with George Gruhn last week on this subject, and the topic of where collector prices will be in a few years came up. He probably has more experience with collector guitars and pricing than anyone alive, and he held up a crystal ball and said he did not know what would happen, could only track past trends. He stated, things look upside down currently.

He did mention the baby boomers, and said they have bought all the guitars they could not afford as kids...and questioned whether today's collectables will grow or lose value as boomers age, sell off or in his words, "just die."

Regarding the pandemic, he said prices and sales have been strong--mostly online sales.

In his wisdom, to figure what will be collectable in 10 years you need to look at what today's kids want and can't afford. In twenty years, those will be most collectible guitars and grow in value.

Originally Posted by Fatfinger McGee

This is also suspected by many in other vintage collectible areas, like motorcycles and politics. On the other hand, when the boomers die off it will be the largest wealth transfer in history, and some of it will go to folks who could only afford a $300 Yamaha but wanted that Collings so, so bad.

[CuidadoCaliente]

A lot of prices increased before the pandemic because of tariffs on Chinese made products. As for increases on guitars made in other countries, that's just capitalism.

[SongwriterFan]

Originally Posted by rllink

Where do they go?

I know where eighty of them are.

[jdrnd]

It is wishful thinking to expect guitar prices to drop. They will always rise in the long run. It is unlikely they will drop in the short run, unless The US goes into a depression.
Custom guitars built by certain private Luthiers will be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars after their death.
I predict that an Olson guitar will sell for over $350,000 in 2060.