Is the acoustic guitar market saturated????

[blue-wily-fox]

Saturated???? At least with the USA market? When us baby boomers retire/die/get too old to play…will the market be flooded with old guitars coming back on the market? Will people in Vietnam be able to afford Martins? I mean, they make 700 guitars a day, when will enough be enough in America? I know there are guys on this forum with 20+ guitars, not every guitar player is going to be able to absorb that many guitars in his herd??!! At some point, the American market will flatten out…has to be. If it wasn't for the MTV "unplugged" series, it might have already happened! A lot of us "old timers" grew up with James Taylor, Dylan and other Acoustic Guitar Troubadors, but unless some huge nostalgia phase moves in, have acoustics run their course? I'll take the comments off air…..

[grathan]

That's an interesting question that I am not too sure about. I do know that stores within a 2 hour drive of me are not over saturated.


My closet may be a different story though..

[Wardo]

Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana.

[Goodallboy]

Probably......but it won't stop production or purchasing so it must mean it's not OVERLY saturated.

[reholli]

The acoustic guitar market won't be saturated until everyone prone to own one does...

[repete]

It might already be.

My dad noticed the decline of people buying instruments and decided it was time to close his store after 25 years.

-r

[mickey66]

Originally Posted by blue-wily-fox

Saturated???? At least with the USA market? When us baby boomers retire/die/get too old to play…will the market be flooded with old guitars coming back on the market? Will people in Vietnam be able to afford Martins? I mean, they make 700 guitars a day, when will enough be enough in America? I know there are guys on this forum with 20+ guitars, not every guitar player is going to be able to absorb that many guitars in his herd??!! At some point, the American market will flatten out…has to be. If it wasn't for the MTV "unplugged" series, it might have already happened! A lot of us "old timers" grew up with James Taylor, Dylan and other Acoustic Guitar Troubadors, but unless some huge nostalgia phase moves in, have acoustics run their course? I'll take the comments off air…..

When i was learning about collecting antique firearms, I was told; 10% survival rate of originally produced items. Same apply s to guitars. Yes, there will be a glut of musical instruments on the market for a number of years. But like old guns they will slowly vanish into the landscape. Just my 2 cents!

[Ramesses]

Originally Posted by wardo

time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana.

+1 .

[billgennaro]

Originally Posted by blue-wily-fox

Saturated???? .....I mean, they make 700 guitars a day…..

Sounds like the acoustic guitar business is boomin' to me!

[billder99]

Originally Posted by Wardo

Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana.

Deep, grasshoppah, deeeep.

The only thing I see that could really harm the acoustic guitar market is a new, disruptive music and new instruments... as fundamentally different as rock and roll and electric guitars were to the music and instruments that preceded them... and I don't see that the electric guitar has done the acoustic guitar much harm.

Music is too much a part of the human soul, and guitars are the near perfect instrument. Guitars are easy to transport, super versatile as instrumental or accompaniment for voice, sufficiently complex for both solo and orchestral playing, they are sufficiently loud without amplification for most situations, they fit the human voice near perfectly, they feel good to hold, and they are exquisitely beautiful.

No market rises or falls continuously forever. The guitar market is facilitated by the ease of learning the internet has provided us... there will be rises and falls in the number of annual sales, but guitars are here to stay for our lifetimes.

[Thrillhouse]

While there aren't a lot of acoustic acts topping the billboard charts these days there has been a definite resurgence in folk, americana, bluegrass circles recently. Actually I think all things analog have been gaining ground as a backlash to a digital world has taken root. Things will always swing one way and then the other. Acoustic instruments are here to stay.

[Howard Klepper]

So your thread a few days ago about there being a vintage guitar "bubble" didn't get enough traction?

Are you shorting the market?

[pjroberts]

Originally Posted by Howard Klepper

So your thread a few days ago about there being a vintage guitar "bubble" didn't get enough traction?

Are you shorting the market?

Ahhh! Busted! I noticed the same theme but thought it was surely a different poster.

[Silly Moustache]

I don't believe that the OP is "shorting the market, or doing anything but asking our opinions about the future market for acoustics.

It is a question that I also find intriguing.

I can't imagine the acoustic guitar disappearing, as it as a fundamental aspect of traditional folk music of many countries - Spain, Germany, Britain, Italy, Spain (of course) and most countries in the Americas.

However the rise of the American (best say USA) style steel string guitars has been remarkable and a great deal of development and evolution has happened in only the last 100 years or so.

However, most of what we play now - and what is being built now are copies or variations of designs that emerged between 1900 and 1935.


yes there are exceptions not least the emergence of carbon fiber and who knows ion the next decades they might be able to be bought and downloaded to your 3d printer from amazon or some such.

At the risk of irritating one or two members here, I am very fond of Collings guitars, and I admire Bill C, and the many other small factory and one man builders enormously. They use remarkably high quality woods, transmuted into fine instruments often using CNC machinery and ther products emulate and (frankly) often exceed the quality of the vintage instruments that they are replicating.

I have been watching (and participating in0 the market fr some time now, and watched the various fashionable upgrades - currently it is "torriefied" woods, previously Varnish instead of Nitro finishes, and all such aspects are designed to emulate the standard issue Martins and Gibsons of the early to mid 20th century factory built product.

Why? - because there are an aging market of people with disposable income who will buy, buy and buy again.

I wonder how many buyers of Collings, Santa Cruz, Bourgeois, and high level Martins are buying their first good guitar ? I suspect very few.

I suspect that many of us have a large number of instruments because like it or not, gigging or not we are "collectors".

So as all those fine small factory and one man makers increase their output annually, there just HAS to be a saturation point.

It IS the baby boomer generation which buys these works of art , and we ARE confronting age, decrepitude and demise.

Yes there are younger musician maturing to take our places, and it is impossible to predict when that peak wi8ll be - it may already have passed.

I believe that one needs to be either born into an affluent family, or have had time to accumulate your own wealth in order to spend money on high dollar guitars.

Modern instruments despite being wonderfully built and sounding do not appreciate in value like the 20th C Martins, Gibsons etc. did in the last 25 years.

Sooner or later, the market for new build guitars will show a significant decline - and of course there is the next economic crash to consider - every seven years I was told.

[Vognell]

Originally Posted by repete

It might already be.

My dad noticed the decline of people buying instruments and decided it was time to close his store after 25 years.

-r

Unfortunately for the "Mom and Pop stores", a lot of instrument purchase are completed online, or in big box stores. My last two purchases were from Amazon, the prior two from Sam Ash, and the one before that from craigslist. I've only purchased one instrument in the past 5 years from a small retailer. I'm currently eyeballing a Yamaha Semi-hollowbody on craigslist.

In my immediate area, there is only one independently owned music store that I know of (Broadway Music Academy) and he doesn't offer much of a selection. This business relies on revenue from lessons (implied in the name), as I don't think they do nearly enough volume in instruments to pay the bills. I purchased my Fender Sonoran from him a few years back.

I understand where the OP is coming from though. I keep seeing these factory tours on youtube, and can't help but wonder who's buying all those instruments.