COVID-19 CASES INCREASING

[DenverSteve]

Originally Posted by HodgdonExtreme

Clearly, testing is increasing. If daily case count increases stay steady WHILE testing is simultaneously increasing - we are making an improvement..

This new graph shows regardless of how we get to the identified cases - the death rate continues at the same rate. If you look at a logarithmic chart the results are exactly the same. Unfortunately.

Screen Shot 2020-03-29 at 2.05.01 PM.jpg

[HodgdonExtreme]

Originally Posted by DenverSteve

This new graph shows regardless of how we get to the identified cases - the death rate continues at the same rate. If you look at a logarithmic chart the results are exactly the same. Unfortunately

Death is a more accurate metric for judging the distribution and seriousness.

But death is also heavily, heavily delayed. From what I've read, Covid19 deaths are generally 20-30 days protracted from infection.

Meanwhile, symptoms and diagnosis is more like 2-14 days protracted from infection.

Key point: we are not far enough along our control trajectory to be using death as a judging metric of our success or failure in dealing with this pestilence. Even if USA had a 100% perfectly executed full country lockdown that began 2 weeks ago - the death rate we see today would look no different.

[jaytee32]

I found this one interesting:

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

the idea of plotting new cases vs total cases removes some classes of uncertainties (like differences between countries in how they test). As long as the growth continues to be exponential, the curve follows a straight line.

You can see unfortunately the US blasting on a straight line ... Italy finally dropping off the line, the Netherlands cautiously bending away from it, and China and South Korea dropping off the cliff (that's good).

[DCCougar]

Originally Posted by Otterhound

I really can't think of a positive way to discuss a pandemic... there are exceptions . According to what I have heard and seen Dr Fauci is of the opinion that every survivor will be immune going forward....

I also heard Fauci recently estimated that there could be 200,000 DEATHS in the U.S. That's 100 times more than we currently have. (Perhaps he's taking into account the stupidity of so many?)

[cmd612]

Originally Posted by DCCougar

I also heard Fauci recently estimated that there could be 200,000 DEATHS in the U.S. That's 100 times more than we currently have. (Perhaps he's taking into account the stupidity of so many?)

I was thinking the 100,000-200,000 estimate was a best-case scenario based on where we are today? (Sincerely hoping someone who knows what they're talking about will convince me I'm wrong.)

[slide496]

Originally Posted by DenverSteve

Yep. Personal protection requires personal responsibility. In the absence of the latter from others, the former becomes more important.

I certainly agree with that.

[MChild62]

Originally Posted by jaytee32

I found this one interesting:

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

the idea of plotting new cases vs total cases removes some classes of uncertainties (like differences between countries in how they test). As long as the growth continues to be exponential, the curve follows a straight line.

You can see unfortunately the US blasting on a straight line ... Italy finally dropping off the line, the Netherlands cautiously bending away from it, and China and South Korea dropping off the cliff (that's good).

This is one way to look at the data, which seems common across different media. But, as I posted earlier on a different thread, if you look instead the lines from when each country first had 10 cases per a million people, the US is still far down and very much at the beginning of the spread.

This is both horrible, in the sense that it means the potential for damage is so great, and hopeful, in that it means that the more steps that are taken now, the more damage that can be avoided. There's absolutely no reason for anyone in the US or any country to assume its too late to do anything but accept a terrible outcome. Here in Italy, we also started late in the game, but we are beginning to see some return on the measures put in place weeks ago.

[KevWind]

The Financial Times has put together a series of data graphs that are easy to read
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

The country by country trajectories graph is especially revealing considering who had what kinds of response and when

[Cypress Knee]

Originally Posted by cmd612

I was thinking the 100,000-200,000 estimate was a best-case scenario based on where we are today? (Sincerely hoping someone who knows what they're talking about will convince me I'm wrong.)

The slope of the logarithmic chart suggests that we will go from 100,000 to a 1,000,000 in the same amount of time that we went from 10,000 to 100,000. That is, about nine days.

The current US mortality rate is about 1.7%. That's 17,000 right there.

If the graph continues at its current slope, we will have 10,000,000 infected in about three weeks.

As long as major urban areas continue to run their mass transit systems and rural folks chit chat about big city problems at the local watering hole, well, yes, this thing can get out of control in a hurry.

[Otterhound]

Originally Posted by DCCougar

I also heard Fauci recently estimated that there could be 200,000 DEATHS in the U.S. That's 100 times more than we currently have. (Perhaps he's taking into account the stupidity of so many?)

When you crunch the numbers , it adds up to less than 1% of population .
When you look at that and compare it to how many will be immune post survival , it lends a bit of perspective .
Yes , numbers are cold , but that appears to be what everyone is relying on so ....
This should have the overpopulation crowd singing in their respective isolations .
When you live in and dwell on fear , you die every minute of every day .
I choose to die once . How about you ?

[buddyhu]

Originally Posted by cmd612

I was thinking the 100,000-200,000 estimate was a best-case scenario based on where we are today? (Sincerely hoping someone who knows what they're talking about will convince me I'm wrong.)

I have not kept up with recent numbers, but I had heard a few days ago that many experts are forecasting 1-2 million deaths over the next 18-24 months.

[HodgdonExtreme]

Another day with fewer than +20k new cases; despite increased testing. That marks 3 consecutive days of NO INCREASE in new daily cases.

Hopefully even the glass half empty folks can see the good in that!

[DenverSteve]

We are currently at 142,178 total identified cases. That's a change of 58,456 worldwide since yesterday.

[gitarro]

How does anyone reasonably expect the rates and numbers to plateau when movement is still unrestricted throughout the country ? I saw some charts from flightradar that compared the current flights taking place in several countries and most countries show zero or almost zero flights anywhere within their borders. But two huge exceptions are the united states and Indonesia where a multitude of flights are criss crossing each country. And even now there is no quarantine of red zone states like New York to blockage virus movement out of that state into less affected states. Without a central policy spearheading aggressive measures like in china or italy or South Korea, are people taking this pandemic seriously enough?

[HodgdonExtreme]

Originally Posted by DenverSteve

We are currently at 142,178 total identified cases. That's a change of 58,456 worldwide since yesterday.

I've no idea what you're talking about. According to worldometer.info (which I believe many/most of us have been following for data) logged 123,578 total cases for 3/28 and 142,047 for 3/29...

...thus fewer than +20k new cases for 3/29.

The third consecutive day of fewer than +20k new daily cases in USA.

Edit: To clarify, it's the third consecutive day under +20k that would have been greater than +20k if the curve wasn't flattening - the USA has never had a day of greater than +20k)