COVID-19 CASES INCREASING

[DenverSteve]

Originally Posted by MChild62

We have one of the best healthcare systems in the world in northern Italy, with one of the highest number of doctors per thousand people, and more than enough ICU beds under normal circumstances.
....

Indeed you do. Thanks again for your continued contributions.

[AX17609]

Originally Posted by MChild62

We have one of the best healthcare systems in the world in northern Italy, with one of the highest number of doctors per thousand people, and more than enough ICU beds under normal circumstances.
https://www.nationmaster.com/country...r-1,000-people
The Lombardy region, which is the hardest hit by the virus and suffering horrendous deaths every day, is one of Europe's wealthiest regions with a standard of healthcare that anyone would define as world class. They are just overwhelmed.

Good to know. Makes it harder to understand why Italy's death rate is so much higher than everyone else's.

[buddyhu]

My interpretation: the peaks are primarily in areas that have more transit: urban areas that are hubs of economic activity. Those infected early are more likely to have contact with those in transit...generally more affluent folks who are traveling or doing business. These people are, in general, in better health and are more educated and are more likely to consult medical professionals early (because they can afford to).

As it spreads more widely through the population, reaching more people who are poor, less educated, and who have poorer overall health, the death rate will go higher.

Originally Posted by AX17609

What do you make of the fact that the US has the second lowest death rate (1.44%) of confirmed cases behind only Germany (0.61%) of countries reporting more than 10,000 cases?

Others (in order):
Switzerland - 1.62%
China - 4.02%
Britain - 4.91%
France - 5.75%
Iran - 7.60%
Spain - 7.55%
Italy - 10.19%

[jklotz]

Originally Posted by AX17609

Good to know. Makes it harder to understand why Italy's death rate is so much higher than everyone else's.

From what I've read, Italy has a larger population of older folks than a lot of other countries, which explains at least part of it.

[cmac]

Originally Posted by jklotz

From what I've read, Italy has a larger population of older folks than a lot of other countries, which explains at least part of it.

Makes sense. Combine high-quality and high-availability universal healthcare with a wealthy population and you get a lot of people living longer, and therefore a higher portion of the population is in the vulnerable range of virus infection.

[guitargabor]

Originally Posted by buddyhu

My interpretation: the peaks are primarily in areas that have more transit: urban areas that are hubs of economic activity. Those infected early are more likely to have contact with those in transit...generally more affluent folks who are traveling or doing business. These people are, in general, in better health and are more educated and are more likely to consult medical professionals early (because they can afford to).

As it spreads more widely through the population, reaching more people who are poor, less educated, and who have poorer overall health, the death rate will go higher.

I am concerned what will transpire in the third world.Africa,India,Pakistan etc...

[DenverSteve]

Originally Posted by AX17609

Good to know. Makes it harder to understand why Italy's death rate is so much higher than everyone else's.

Because, like we are seeing in NY with some of the best hospitals in the world, they are completely over-taxed. Too many people at one time, plus shortages in supplies and equipment means - even in a normally great system - delays in testing and treatment equating to higher than normal death rates.

[buddyhu]

Originally Posted by guitargabor

I am concerned what will transpire in the third world.Africa,India,Pakistan etc...

I am too. Quite concerned. The homeless population in the U. S. may be ravaged as well.

[DenverSteve]

Sadly, as expected, Italy has surpassed China and added almost another 1,000 fatalities so far today remembering that it is almost 7pm there and their "day" is near over.

[robj144]

US already over 100k total cases. (That was quick.) Today's death toll will most likely be the highest so far. There's still a lag between volume of cases and volume who need hospitalization too. This won't be pretty in a week or two...

[HodgdonExtreme]

Originally Posted by robj144

US already over 100k total cases. (That was quick.) Today's death toll will most likely be the highest so far. There's still a lag between volume of cases and volume who need hospitalization too. This won't be pretty in a week or two...

It was quick. I had been anticipating tonight/tomorrow for 100k cases.

The slightly hopeful news is these numbers are on account of massively increased testing - so they are probably more reflective of "actual" cases. We've known all along that actual cases were way ahead of simply "confirmed" ones.

Still, the slope of the logarithmic graph has absolutely flattened a bit in the past several days. Obviously way to early to draw conclusions, though.



This does not include today's numbers. However, there will need to be over 110k cases by end of day today for todays data to NOT follow the less slope trend. So things are looking up a bit.

[Dirk Hofman]

Here's a site with what appears to be pretty up to date and comprehensive testing info: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

[HodgdonExtreme]

Originally Posted by Dirk Hofman

Here's a site with what appears to be pretty up to date and comprehensive testing info: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

That article is 7 days old as I type this. Testing in USA has increased dramatically since then.

[KevWind]

Originally Posted by robj144

US already over 100k total cases. (That was quick.) Today's death toll will most likely be the highest so far. There's still a lag between volume of cases and volume who need hospitalization too. This won't be pretty in a week or two...

The number of "New Cases" almost doubled in 6 hours from 7,894 to 14,995 (obviously more testing but still )
At aprox 14:00 GMT hours



At 20:25 GMT

[Dirk Hofman]

Originally Posted by HodgdonExtreme

That article is 7 days old as I type this. Testing in USA has increased dramatically since then.

Thanks HE, for some reason I read the data totals and thought it was in line with today. I stand corrected.