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  #16  
Old 05-24-2020, 04:38 PM
Dirk Hofman Dirk Hofman is offline
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They closed the Covid ICU unit in a large hospital in a nearby town. This is good news.
That is indeed great news.
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Old 05-24-2020, 07:49 PM
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They closed the Covid ICU unit in a large hospital in a nearby town. This is good news.
That's good news. My wife is an ER nurse, and she said that their tent hospital may be taken down in a couple of weeks. We've done a great job of bending the curve here in Sacramento. In fact, it was reported that we had the lowest cases per capita of any metro area in the country, so I'm proud of how our community took things seriously. Hopefully, everyone can retain their focus, as we begin to open up slowly.
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Old 05-25-2020, 07:55 AM
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I should preface my posts by stating that I have taught immunology at a university level and done research in that field, alongside teaching in the medical sciences for over 30 years and still work in that capacity.

Some encouraging data this week from Jennifer Kastead, MD. MSc. M.Sc., probably one of the best people on social media who breaks down the science, usually with a funny bone in hand.

It appears that both T helper and T killer cells, the immune cells that do most of the viral killing (even more then B cell antibodies) show strong ability to not only destroy the virus but the immunity seems to be long term. This suggests that one cannot get the virus a second time, at least easily and that our prior exposure to COVD-type epitopes, (the part of the virus that the immune system 'sees') confers some immunity. This may account for the high recovery rate and low symptom profile in many of those who test positive. So we have fought corona virus types before and those battles have prepared many for dealing with this one.

There was more work by the German scientist who was unable to culture COVD from foments (such as surfaces, cereal boxes, door handles etc..) and that the amount of virus needed to infect, what the call the 'dose' was not enough in these cases. This goes along with other data differentiating aerosolized virus vs viral droplets. So when you are out jogging and someone in front of you is running, the amount of contamination is minimal...so getting it from anyone who is further than 6 feet away is very difficult.

Finally, masking while out is about the best strategy right now, as people get lockdown burnout..and start congregating. I do hope that people do not congregate now....
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Old 05-25-2020, 08:01 AM
Dirk Hofman Dirk Hofman is offline
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Originally Posted by Davis Webb View Post
I should preface my posts by stating that I have taught immunology at a university level and done research in that field, alongside teaching in the medical sciences for over 30 years and still work in that capacity.

Some encouraging data this week from Jennifer Kastead, MD. MSc. M.Sc., probably one of the best people on social media who breaks down the science, usually with a funny bone in hand.

It appears that both T helper and T killer cells, the immune cells that do most of the viral killing (even more then B cell antibodies) show strong ability to not only destroy the virus but the immunity seems to be long term. This suggests that one cannot get the virus a second time, at least easily and that our prior exposure to COVD-type epitopes, (the part of the virus that the immune system 'sees') confers some immunity. This may account for the high recovery rate and low symptom profile in many of those who test positive. So we have fought corona virus types before and those battles have prepared many for dealing with this one.

There was more work by the German scientist who was unable to culture COVD from foments (such as surfaces, cereal boxes, door handles etc..) and that the amount of virus needed to infect, what the call the 'dose' was not enough in these cases. This goes along with other data differentiating aerosolized virus vs viral droplets. So when you are out jogging and someone in front of you is running, the amount of contamination is minimal...so getting it from anyone who is further than 6 feet away is very difficult.

Finally, masking while out is about the best strategy right now, as people get lockdown burnout..and start congregating. I do hope that people do not congregate now....
This is really hopeful and great news. Do you have links to the details or science for the info about surfaces and aerosols? I don’t have Facebook and I’d love to dig into the details. Thanks!
  #20  
Old 05-25-2020, 08:36 AM
Neil K Walk Neil K Walk is offline
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That’s certainly encouraging news. While I’ve said in past posts that I don’t hold out for hope on a vaccine anytime soon I do hold out hope that people who have recovered can develop antibodies that at least prevent transmission to others.
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  #21  
Old 05-25-2020, 09:24 AM
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The Bob Evans restaurant across the river in Paducah, Ky. is open. (as are all of the others)

That's good news, I don't care who ya are...…

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Old 05-25-2020, 11:54 AM
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I think it's kind of strange that the reported numbers on every Sunday are a weekly minimum in the US:



See all those dips the last 6 weeks? Those are all Sundays. That makes no logical sense.
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  #23  
Old 05-25-2020, 12:19 PM
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The Bob Evans restaurant across the river in Paducah, Ky. is open. (as are all of the others)

That's good news, I don't care who ya are...…

What if you don't like Bob Evans? Then it's just news...
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  #24  
Old 05-25-2020, 12:21 PM
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...See all those dips the last 6 weeks? Those are all Sundays. That makes no logical sense.
Who records those deaths? What if that reflects the day of the week when people who would otherwise deal with and record deaths are off from work or are short-handed? Are there spikes on Mondays when said people come back to work??? If so, that would be the day that Sunday and Monday deaths get recorded. Just a thought...
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Old 05-25-2020, 01:31 PM
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I should preface my posts by stating that I have taught immunology at a university level and done research in that field, alongside teaching in the medical sciences for over 30 years and still work in that capacity.... I do hope that people do not congregate now....
I guess most people are not congregating, but of course the news will show the ones who are, and there are quite a few of those.
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  #26  
Old 05-25-2020, 01:35 PM
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Who records those deaths? What if that reflects the day of the week when people who would otherwise deal with and record deaths are off from work or are short-handed? Are there spikes on Mondays when said people come back to work??? If so, that would be the day that Sunday and Monday deaths get recorded. Just a thought...
Looks like spikes are often on Mondays or Tuesdays, which favors an interpretation that the stats are not reported 7 days a week in some locations, and that Monday’s and Tuesdays are catch up days.
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Old 05-25-2020, 01:42 PM
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Looks like spikes are often on Mondays or Tuesdays, which favors an interpretation that the stats are not reported 7 days a week in some locations, and that Monday’s and Tuesdays are catch up days.
Makes sense to me...
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  #28  
Old 05-25-2020, 01:43 PM
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Good point, congregating verses isolation. The eternal question.

Here is Jennifer's take on risk..see if this helps...its more about degree of risk ...



https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=566090854303846
  #29  
Old 05-25-2020, 01:47 PM
Dirk Hofman Dirk Hofman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robj144 View Post
I think it's kind of strange that the reported numbers on every Sunday are a weekly minimum in the US:



See all those dips the last 6 weeks? Those are all Sundays. That makes no logical sense.
Been wondering about that cycle for a while. It's more than just Sundays, it peaks mid week and tapers to the weekend. My best guess so far is that many areas aren't compiling numbers every day, and not on the weekend. But that doesn't totally explain it and I'm not sure that's even the case.
  #30  
Old 05-25-2020, 01:53 PM
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This is really hopeful and great news. Do you have links to the details or science for the info about surfaces and aerosols? I don’t have Facebook and I’d love to dig into the details. Thanks!
I could look up the paper. But the take is that aerosol transmission means that it floats in the air, whereas droplet transmission means that it is coughed, sneezed and generally wet. COVD is droplet transmission, not aerosol, ie, the cone of the sneeze, about 6 feet is much riskier then catching it while breathing in air indoors. So unlike Hunta virus, which can be aerosolized while cleaning a basement with infected mice, this one needs wet stuff to encase in.

To summarized the German work, it was done in Italy, obtaining swabs from all manner of surfaces from door handles in emergency rooms, to floors, and so forth. He found viable particles on all of these foments (foment is the thing that a virus might cling to). However, he was unable to get them to grow in the lab. It is now fairly well established that this is the case, the virus is extremely frail. This does not mean we go play beach blanket bongos. But that simply being in a house where people are infected and touching objects, if they are not freshly sneezed on...is probably fine. You can let your friends use your bathroom when they visit, as Jenn says.
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