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  #286  
Old 03-29-2020, 09:37 PM
gitarro gitarro is offline
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According to the CDC which is probably the best data source, the increase trom day to day is as follows

24 march 13987
25 March 16916
26 march 17965
27 march 19332

So yes, the daily increases have been less than 20k but they have always been less than 20k so I am not sure how this fact should be an encouraging sign at all. Instead the rate of increases have been steadily increasing.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

Quote:
Originally Posted by HodgdonExtreme View Post
I've no idea what you're talking about. According to worldometer.info (which I believe many/most of us have been following for data) logged 123,578 total cases for 3/28 and 142,047 for 3/29...

...thus fewer than +20k new cases for 3/29.

The third consecutive day of fewer than +20k new daily cases in USA.

Edit: To clarify, it's the third consecutive day under +20k that would have been greater than +20k if the curve wasn't flattening - the USA has never had a day of greater than +20k)
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  #287  
Old 03-29-2020, 09:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HodgdonExtreme View Post
I've no idea what you're talking about. According to worldometer.info (which I believe many/most of us have been following for data) logged 123,578 total cases for 3/28 and 142,047 for 3/29...

...thus fewer than +20k new cases for 3/29.

The third consecutive day of fewer than +20k new daily cases in USA.

Edit: To clarify, it's the third consecutive day under +20k that would have been greater than +20k if the curve wasn't flattening - the USA has never had a day of greater than +20k)
He just mixed up US and worldwide numbers. First number was total US cases, second was worldwide increase.

The US isn’t remotely close to flattening out, nor is the world. Both are still going up exponentially. Those three consecutive days of less than 20k new cases followed days of less than 15k new, less than 10k new, etc.

You realize that we just passed Italy and China three days ago, when we pushed past 80,000 cases. By the end of the day tomorrow, we will already have more than doubled that.
  #288  
Old 03-29-2020, 09:39 PM
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They're off. The numbers I get are the one's that the WHO's numbers agree with. Here's the compilation from today as it goes up like the doomsday clock.

Screen Shot 2020-03-29 at 9.37.02 PM.jpg
  #289  
Old 03-29-2020, 09:44 PM
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Current U.S. numbers.

Screen Shot 2020-03-29 at 9.42.13 PM.jpg
  #290  
Old 03-29-2020, 10:03 PM
HodgdonExtreme HodgdonExtreme is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fishermike View Post
The US isn’t remotely close to flattening out
Respectfully disagree. If you look at the logarithmic graph of USA cases, it is clearly nosing over and beginning to flatten.

Now, it's entirely possible it'll take back off. Is is certainly very early. However, there is currently clear evidence the exponential growth has slowed.
  #291  
Old 03-29-2020, 10:07 PM
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Apparently there is an unofficial theme song to the Covid 19 virus situation:

REM" it's the end of the world as we know it"...and I feel fine.....
  #292  
Old 03-29-2020, 10:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HodgdonExtreme View Post
Respectfully disagree. If you look at the logarithmic graph of USA cases, it is clearly nosing over and beginning to flatten.

Now, it's entirely possible it'll take back off. Is is certainly very early. However, there is currently clear evidence the exponential growth has slowed.
I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think this will be a trend in the long term. Right now, NYC is the hotbed which has done a pretty good job at social distancing, so that's affecting the overall numbers. I think, next week or the week after, some other city will explode and that will lead to another surge. Hopefully I'm wrong, like I said, and most states and cities take it seriously so that does not happen. That's not what I see for the most part though.
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  #293  
Old 03-29-2020, 10:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DenverSteve View Post
They're off. The numbers I get are the one's that the WHO's numbers agree with. Here's the compilation from today as it goes up like the doomsday clock.

Attachment 35247
As I said, that is usually right, but it has been WAY off several times during this outbreak.
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  #294  
Old 03-29-2020, 11:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robj144 View Post
I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think this will be a trend in the long term. Right now, NYC is the hotbed which has done a pretty good job at social distancing, so that's affecting the overall numbers. I think, next week or the week after, some other city will explode and that will lead to another surge. Hopefully I'm wrong, like I said, and most states and cities take it seriously so that does not happen. That's not what I see for the most part though.
Actually, NYC must shut down its mass transit system and advocate for everyone to walk, rent a bike or rent a scooter, to get downtown. Wearing PPE and wiping down all the way.

And they have to shut down the airports now. At the current time they are just acting as transit zones for the corona viruses to hitch a ride to Denver, or San Diego, or El Paso, who knows where this wandering virus wants to go?
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  #295  
Old 03-29-2020, 11:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cypress Knee View Post
....At the current time they are just acting as transit zones for the corona viruses to hitch a ride to Denver, or San Diego, or El Paso, who knows where this wandering virus wants to go?
HEY, HEY, HEY.............. Let's keep them out of Denver.....
  #296  
Old 03-30-2020, 12:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HodgdonExtreme View Post
Respectfully disagree. If you look at the logarithmic graph of USA cases, it is clearly nosing over and beginning to flatten.

Now, it's entirely possible it'll take back off. Is is certainly very early. However, there is currently clear evidence the exponential growth has slowed.
Nothing would make me happier than to be wrong on this.
  #297  
Old 03-30-2020, 01:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MChild62 View Post
Interesting presentation of available data by a professor of microbiology in London.

First, while much of the world's media is focused on the number of total cases, looking instead at the first 10 cases per million inhabitants presents a very different picture of where we stand, with Italy and Switzerland being the main centers in Europe at the moment:
Attachment 35209

Additionally, he looked at the data from China (which he finds to be credible for a number of reasons, one being that when China ran out of tests they switched to other diagnostic tools). There he found a 10 day lag between the plateau of new, active cases (what I've been calling new, currently positive cases) and the start of the decline of the total currently positive cases.
Attachment 35208

He concludes that lockdowns are unlikely to be lifted in Europe before the beginning of May due to the substantial lag.
If you just look at these charts of different countries the upward trend is clear even though at various points the curve is jagged and even seems to temporarily flatten or decrease In steepness. It is unfortunately far too optimistic to expect USA to be flattening out at this very early stage in the pandemic progression when the whole country has hardly locked down yet and has not proscribed interstate travel...
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  #298  
Old 03-30-2020, 05:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gitarro View Post
If you just look at these charts of different countries the upward trend is clear even though at various points the curve is jagged and even seems to temporarily flatten or decrease In steepness. It is unfortunately far too optimistic to expect USA to be flattening out at this very early stage in the pandemic progression when the whole country has hardly locked down yet and has not proscribed interstate travel...
Just a suggestion , if I may .
Don't apply the numbers from other nations . We aren't them and they aren't us . If you were to do this , people would have been dropping like flies here from Ebola .

Last edited by Lkristians; 03-30-2020 at 06:27 AM. Reason: Rule #1
  #299  
Old 03-30-2020, 05:35 AM
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I have no doubt that the number of COVID19 cases in the US is increasing, but I continue to question what % of those are due to testing that's now available and/or individuals who previously had mild symptoms that were not brought to the attention of those who count cases...
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  #300  
Old 03-30-2020, 05:38 AM
1neeto 1neeto is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RP View Post
I have no doubt that the number of COVID19 cases in the US is increasing, but I continue to question what % of those are due to testing that's now available and/or individuals who previously had mild symptoms that were not brought to the attention of those who count cases...

That’s why mortality rate and people infected so far is almost irrelevant. There is no way to know for sure.
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