COVID-19 CASES INCREASING

[ManyMartinMan]

Originally Posted by KevWind

...
The cows down in the lower 40 perhaps 1/2 mile or more away are not going to stop needing hay (and not another soul in sight)

The ultimate social distancing. One human per 10,000 acres.

[KevWind]

Originally Posted by ManyMartinMan

The ultimate social distancing. One human per 10,000 acres.

While I am not a cattle rancher my 1/2 mile , daily trip finishing up construction on the new horse barn/arena, has not changed Yet still seems fairly socially distant

[ManyMartinMan]

A cautious reminder. Many of the U.S. states and countries like Spain and England who have moved slowly to impose serious restrictions have yet to hit a serious curve. All of these places may be 2-3 weeks from a visible uptick in cases. So if it appears that there's been no slowing in increasing cases, remember that it takes weeks to see improvement - after containment policy enactment. The U.S. is on a steeper curve than Spain right now and Spain's numbers are just starting to explode. The point here is that it appears we (global cases excluding reporting countries like China & S. Korea) are just beginning to get bad. We are weeks away from "critical mass" and we all need to be prepared not paranoid. Just be careful. If you're in Montana/S. Dakota, social distancing is easier than in parts of Texas and Louisiana but no less important.

[KevWind]

Originally Posted by ManyMartinMan

A cautious reminder. Many of the U.S. states and countries like Spain and England who have moved slowly to impose serious restrictions have yet to hit a serious curve. All of these places may be 2-3 weeks from a visible uptick in cases. So if it appears that there's been no slowing in increasing cases, remember that it takes weeks to see improvement - after containment policy enactment. The U.S. is on a steeper curve than Spain right now and Spain's numbers are just starting to explode. The point here is that it appears we (global cases excluding reporting countries like China & S. Korea) are just beginning to get bad. We are weeks away from "critical mass" and we all need to be prepared not paranoid. Just be careful. If you're in Montana/S. Dakota, social distancing is easier than in parts of Texas and Louisiana but no less important.

I could not agree more. All kidding aside on the Unacast chart by county even in Wyoming, the counties with the highest densities and largest cities with commutes to more typical employment, have actually reduced travel quite a bit, and scored fairly high.

[DenverSteve]

All good information. Remember New York has yet to hit their worst and they may be weeks from it. The rest of the U.S. is following them and the worst is still weeks off. Watch N.Y., Louisiana, Florida & Georgia for signs of what's to come. Hopefully quick action will show us a flattening.

[Steve DeRosa]

Originally Posted by DenverSteve

...If we can continue to get important information out, without discontent, I believe we can help others understand.

On that note, there may in fact be some real light at the end of the tunnel:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/corona...laureate-says/

[Neil K Walk]

I'll be under my desk waiting for the all clear from the Emergency Broadcast System. As long as I duck and cover everything will be fine.

[Dirk Hofman]

Originally Posted by Steve DeRosa

On that note, there may in fact be some real light at the end of the tunnel:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/corona...laureate-says/

It's hopeful, but worth noting that his comments are all dependent on the response. He's basing his comments on the data coming from South Korea, China, and Italy.

Levitt said he’s in sync with those calling for strong measures to fight the outbreak. The social-distancing mandates are critical — particularly the ban on large gatherings — because the virus is so new that the population has no immunity to it, and a vaccine is still many months away. “This is not the time to go out drinking with your buddies,” he said.

https://www.latimes.com/science/stor...UE8HA83YkHQs-A

Unless similar measures are not taken across the US, I don't know why we'd expect to have similar outcomes. It's just math.

[cmd612]

Originally Posted by DenverSteve

Watch N.Y., Louisiana, Florida & Georgia for signs of what's to come. Hopefully quick action will show us a flattening.

I was just looking at Georgia's latest numbers. 60% of confirmed cases are in adults under 60 years old, and almost one-third of confirmed cases require hospitalization (which of course may be because people not hospitalized are unlikely to be tested). 1247 confirmed cases and 40 deaths so far. Georgia's first confirmed case was just over 3 weeks ago.

[Dirk Hofman]

Originally Posted by cmd612

I was just looking at Georgia's latest numbers. 60% of confirmed cases are in adults under 60 years old, and almost one-third of confirmed cases require hospitalization (which of course may be because people not hospitalized are unlikely to be tested). 1247 confirmed cases and 40 deaths so far. Georgia's first confirmed case was just over 3 weeks ago.

I think you're quite right about the % of hospitalized. The only screening we're getting in San Mateo or Santa Clara counties (2 large counties between SF and San Jose) is if you have severe symptoms. I don't think anything we've seen would point to such an enormous percentage hospitalized in countries where they're testing anyone.

[gitarro]

Originally Posted by 1neeto

Fauci said 10 times. I’m not sure where you get 14 from.

10 times was what Fauci said. I got the upper figure of 14 times from the lower figure quoted by this article based on a study published in the new England journal of medicine:-

https://www.livescience.com/new-coro...-with-flu.html

There was an even higher figure found by another study but I think the numbers are pretty conclusive that comparing covid19 to the flu is like comparing a rabid maddened pit bull to a chihuahua.

[1neeto]

Originally Posted by MChild62

Both numbers are frightening!

One thing that is certain about this virus: it's so new there's inadequate data that epidemiologists are still trying to assess an accurate fatality rate. This is in part a function of differences in testing and number of asymptomatic people or mild symptoms (so cases go unreported), variations among populations (average age per person, co-morbidities, percentage overweight, smokers, etc), available resources in each country (number ICU beds/doctors, etc), and also how the deaths vs infections are counted.

The Lancet report that I posted yesterday associated death rates with number of infection reported 14 days earlier, which gave a fatality rate of 5.5 - 5.9%. This is more than 50 times the flu, but still lower than the death rate so far here in Italy. This is only one report using currently available global data and we will probably see other studies using different parameters that suggest other rates as this develops further, and won't have an accurate estimate for some months. Given the variables, it looks like some countries will be hit much harder, with higher death rates, for the reasons above.

And that’s why I think it’s wrong to throw mortality rate numbers around. We simply don’t have enough data yet. It’s really quite bizarre Italy’s numbers when compared to the rest of the world. I believe that there’s a whole lot of asymptomatic people that were infected and recovered and never knew they had it, or had mild symptoms and were discouraged from testing (I may have fallen into that group. I showed symptoms throughout the weekend, peaking on Monday when my cough got a bit worse. Yesterday my doctor discouraged me from testing because I’m not showing enough symptoms. My wife otoh, has a different doctor and got her tested, so we’ll know in a few days).

It’s a bad virus that’s worse than the flu because it’s new, and our bodies have developed any antibodies for it. There’s documentation of people infected with the flu that dates back to Ancient Greece. So the flu has been with us for well over 2000 years, and our bodies have evolved with it. Once this virus runs its course, and vaccines are developed, I believe covid-19 will be no more threatening than a common cold.

[robj144]

The US will catch Italy for total number of cases in 2 or 3 days... probably 2. We already have more active cases. If you think Italy was bad, and it was, wait a couple of weeks to see what the US is like...

We are not doing what we need to do at the moment.

[robj144]

Originally Posted by 1neeto

And that’s why I think it’s wrong to throw mortality rate numbers around. We simply don’t have enough data yet. It’s really quite bizarre Italy’s numbers when compared to the rest of the world. I believe that there’s a whole lot of asymptomatic people that were infected and recovered and never knew they had it, or had mild symptoms and were discouraged from testing (I may have fallen into that group. I showed symptoms throughout the weekend, peaking on Monday when my cough got a bit worse. Yesterday my doctor discouraged me from testing because I’m not showing enough symptoms. My wife otoh, has a different doctor and got her tested, so we’ll know in a few days).

It’s a bad virus that’s worse than the flu because it’s new, and our bodies have developed any antibodies for it. There’s documentation of people infected with the flu that dates back to Ancient Greece. So the flu has been with us for well over 2000 years, and our bodies have evolved with it. Once this virus runs its course, and vaccines are developed, I believe covid-19 will be no more threatening than a common cold.

Actually, people are paying way too much attention to the mortality rate and I've been saying this from the get go. It's a novel virus, so the from purely a mathematical standpoint, the number of cases would and are growing exponentially. Now, it doesn't matter what the mortality rate is really. The number of deaths will also grow exponentially as well... and yes it does vary. But, the point is you don't want a virus killing people at a exponential rate ever.

[12barBill]

Originally Posted by robj144

The US will catch Italy for total number of cases in 2 or 3 days... probably 2. We already have more active cases. If you think Italy was bad, and it was, wait a couple of weeks to see what the US is like...

We are not doing what we need to do at the moment.

Ok. You are the Czar of the United States. How would you have directed your subjects since January 15 with the information that was available each step of the way?