It makes me squirm that anyone imagines there is an average reliability factor upon which one can decide whether of not it is too chancy to commission a guitar. Every luthier is his/her own person, and most of us have an easily gleaned track record, especially as time passes.
Personally, I book my commissioned work loosely enough that there is time to build a few spec pieces in my typical year. This means that even if there are personal or health issues, unless they are last minute, I am unlikely to be unable to keep my commitments. This is a matter of honor and integrity, and it is a bigger deal for some than for others.
There is no average, do the research.
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