Quote:
Originally Posted by catdaddy
It's important to distinguish erroneous and idle speculation from fact-based theorizing used to illuminate possible scenarios that could unfold. The speculation that there might be a summer decline was shared by several epidemiologists in the early stages of this pandemic, and was given with the caveat that this might happen if COVID-19 behaves in the way that influenza does. These weren't fake experts, they were real experts in the field of epidemiology, and the statement was a cautionary one with respect to a possible resurgence similar to the influenza epidemic of 1918.
This was an example of real concern for public health posited at a time when educating people about how diseases can spread during an epidemic was deemed necessary. The fact that the empirical data now indicates that COVID-19 is not following the expected course of an influenza pandemic (with a summer reduction in cases) doesn't mean that the original speculation was inappropriate or cavalier. I mentioned the most recent Florida daily case number in the context of this speculation to emphasize that we're continuing to learn about COVID-19, and that predicting its path going forward is not going to be easy even for real experts.
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Everybody is learning about COVID-19 together and, yes, there will be things said by those researching, that will be corrected later. Those are not the fake experts. The fake experts are those blathering away with all manner of statistics and opinions in forums, on youtube and wherever else they can find a podium.
If it was the researchers and front line people ONLY who were out there making statements, then there would be far less noise. If we ONLY heard from the people who really know what they are talking about as a direct result of their work on COVID-19, there would be far less confusion and any corrections made to their previous statements as knowledge matures, would be clearly heard and understood for what it is.
That is what I was talking about.
Tony