COVID-19 Italy numbers and reports
 

2 April 2020 Update (6pm press conference)

Looks like we are seeing the back side of a plateau (hopefully), or at least the recent drop in new, currently positive (active) cases is holding.

2,477 new, currently positive cases on 40,000 tests administered (vs 2,937 new, currently positive cases yesterday). In response to a request from a journalist, the Civil Protection Authority said they hope to provide soon the number of people tested not just tests administered (since many people are tested more than once).
760 deaths
1,431 released from hospital/free of virus

83,049 currently positive
28,540 hospitalized with symptoms vs 28,403 yesterday (reduction)
4,053 in intensive care (ICU) vs 4,035 yesterday (reduction)

Interesting data on testing:
Veneto is the region with highest number of tests administered per infection, over 120K tests as of today on 15K positive cases vs 128,000 tests in highly-impacted Lombardy, 128K tests vs 46K positive cases.
http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/a...c82fe38d4138b1

Given the expressions of interest of how Italy is progressing its handling of the case, I will be posting updates here in this thread.

Attachment 35436

Small reductions, but encouraging news nevertheless.

The slope of that curve is indicating real success. The death curve is dropping too. Congratulations to Italy on biting the bullet and doing the necessary.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy

Oh, and it looks like the world has reached a million.

April 3 update

2339 new, active cases on 40,000 tests administered (80,000 in last 2 days, for a total of 620K tests administered so far nationwide).

766 deaths. Still high. The authorities say the peak is stable but not over.

In Lombardy, the hardest hit region, the numbers are still increasing but only at 3.1% vs yesterday. In contrast, the number of those in intensive care in the Veneto region have been about the same since March 26, currently 335. Veneto seems to have the virus under control while Lombardy continues to struggle.

But look at the gray column on the far right, "tamponi" (swabs - tests administered), and the orange column just to the left of it "casi totali" (total cases). You'll see that Lombardy is administering 3x the number of tests vs people who are positive (and the number of people tested is much smaller because some get tested 3 or more times). In Veneto, by contrast, they have tested 12x the number of people who have been found to be positive.

Correlation may not equal causation, but I'd say it is definitely jumping up and down and saying "hey folks, please look over here!"

Attachment 35474

New cases vs "max"

I just came across a website created by a former colleague that presents the growth curves in each region (state) of Italy. In addition, now that we seem to be on the other side of the peak, he also gives "new cases vs. max," ie how each day's new cases compare against the highpoint. So if, for example, the highest number of cases per day was on March 24 for a particular region, he shows the percentage of that number reached today. This shows how well each region is doing.

https://www.alessandrello.org/corona...0qoXWM-UcToWJ8

Attachment 35513

UPDATE 4 April 2020 + info from 6pm press conference Civil Protection

2,886 new, active cases on 37K tests administered (total of 657K tests administered so far nationwide). Still in peak but stable.

681 deaths, a small reduction over yesterday. This number includes:

3 doctors. A total of 80 have lost their lives fighting this virus.

A secret service agent of Prime Minister Conte, 52 years old.

1,238 discharged, no longer symptomatic of COVID-19.

3,994 total currently in intensive care (ICU), small reduction over yesterday.

55,270 people are positive and under quarantine in their homes.

Use of masks by public: being assessed by scientific committee advising the government as to what type and what protection it would offer.

Attachment 35536

Thanks for the updates. We would have been in Tuscany for three weeks starting later this month. Sadly we had to cancel our plans last month. We will make that trip next spring.

Does your country have enough vintalators, masks and other medical equipment and supplies?

What is being done for your homeless?

Glad to hear that you will be coming back! I imagine things will be slow to pick up, and you'll likely have a great time, without the crowds. In reality, the crowds would be great to have back for our economy, but that seems wishful thinking.

For the homeless, as far as I can tell here in Tuscany we do not have many. I've read that the various associations that provide food and shelter are still active, and operate while respecting the required distances.

There are shortages of ventilators and ICU beds in the Lombardy region, which was overwhelmed by the number of coronavirus patients. Other parts of Italy, like here in Tuscany, should be able to absorb a more modest surge in COVID-19 cases, which seems likely if we can continue to keep the growth curve under control. It is only in the last couple of days that we are seeing the increase of new cases really slowing in this part of Italy.

Italy Update 5 April

Civil Protection Authority saying there are studies that have estimated between 5% to 10% of the population may have developed immunity to the virus (they had it and recovered). This is speculation but remains the subject of study.

Also said we appear to be on the downside of the curve. Number of those hospitalized and number in ICU beds declined (slightly, but it's a decline), and deaths also declining.

Separately, newspapers are reporting that the number of deaths reported so far in Milan/Lombardy have certainly been much higher than those certified as being due to COVID-19.

Today's numbers:

2,972 new, active (currently positive) cases on 34K tests administered.

525 deaths, the daily number is still high but continues to decline.

28,949 hospitalized with symptoms.

3,977 in intensive care (ICU).

Attachment 35557

Italy Update 6 April

1,941 new, active cases (currently positive) on 30,000 tests administered.

636 deaths. Still in decline, but slow.

1,022 recovered

Total number of those hospitalized declined again, and those in critical care (ICU) declined slightly for third day in a row. Increase of nearly 2,000 who are under home quarantine without symptoms or with only mild symptoms.

Newspapers are reporting that three different studies estimate that 5-6 million people in Italy (on Italian out of 10) is or has been infected with the virus. This is said to be critical to determine the conditions for when and how to restart the economy with a gradual easing of the lockdown. If these estimates are correct, they are seen to be too low to present any herd immunity and too high to relax current lockdown efforts. According to news reports, the estimates are consistent with studies conducted by Chinese universities that estimated one out of 10 people were infected in Hubei province (and some of the studies estimate 1 in 4).

One thing to consider in looking at the numbers in this thread, like the ones below, are the stark differences in positive results and tests administered in different regions. Italy's lockdown is national, but the healthcare systems are administered within these regions. Note the very different different rates of testing ("tamponi" - gray column at right) vs the total cases (orange column). The Veneto region was not overwhelmed by the COVID-19 cases as was the Lombardy region.

Attachment 35620

April 7 update + 6pm press conference Civil Protection Authority

880 new, active (currently positive) cases out of 34K tests administered. Largest drop in new, active cases since March 10.

604 deaths, still high but still declining.

1,555 recovered vs 1,022 yesterday (total 24,392 recovered)

3,792 in intensive care (ICU), 106 fewer than yesterday. Of those in critical/intensive care, 1,305 are in the Lombardy region.

28,718 total active cases, 258 fewer than yesterday.

Attachment 35695

Attachment 35694

I'd really like to know what that color-coded table says...

Top chart is by Italian region. If you compare previous days, you can see that my region, Tuscany (Toscana), is still growing total numbers but slowly, and the hospitalized and ICU are decreasing.

Yellow columns, in order: hospitalized/ICU/home quarantine/total currently positive
Green: discharged/recovered (no longer positive)
Red: deaths
Orange: Total cases
Gray (“tamponi”): Tests

Bottom chart is totals
Yellow: currently positive
Green: recovered
Red: deaths
Orange: total cases

Thanks!

I have a friend who lives in Bergamo. She's was hatin' life the last time I spoke to her...

I’m so sorry dory your friend. We know people there and it’s a constant trauma of sirens.

A doctor friend here in Florence may be called to serve at the “front line” there (his words).