We Misperceive Too Much

[Herb Hunter]

According to an Ipsos survey we fare worse than many other countries when it comes to misperceptions. Here are a few things we tend to get wrong in the USA:

"3. Muslims: we hugely over-estimate the proportion of Muslims in the US – we think one in seven (15%) of people are Muslims when the actual figure is 1%--a perception gap of -14.4 points.

4. Unemployment: Americans over-estimate that nearly 32.1% of the working age population is unemployed when the actual figure is much lower at 6%-- a perception gap of -26.1 points.

5. Murder rate: Americans are dead wrong on their murder rate with 51% saying it is rising (which is incorrect) whereas only 30% think it is falling (which is correct) and 18% say they don’t know—a perception gap of -21 points.

6. Teenage pregnancy: Americans over-estimate that one quarter (23.9%) of all teenage girls aged 15-19 give birth each year, when the actual figure is only 3.1%-- a perception gap of -20.8 points."

The Country Accuracy Rankings: Perceptions versus Realities



http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/p...e.aspx?id=6657

[Bob Womack]

#4 doesn't take into account those who have dropped out of the workforce and are no longer seeking employmentdue to inability to find work and those who are under-employed (ie. engineer flipping burgers).

Bob

[kydave]

Originally Posted by Herb Hunter

According to an Ipsos survey we fair worse than many other countries when it comes to misperceptions. Here are a few things we tend to get wrong in the USA:

"3. Muslims: we hugely over-estimate the proportion of Muslims in the US – we think one in seven (15%) of people are Muslims when the actual figure is 1%--a perception gap of -14.4 points.

4. Unemployment: Americans over-estimate that nearly 32.1% of the working age population is unemployed when the actual figure is much lower at 6%-- a perception gap of -26.1 points.

5. Murder rate: Americans are dead wrong on their murder rate with 51% saying it is rising (which is incorrect) whereas only 30% think it is falling (which is correct) and 18% say they don’t know—a perception gap of -21 points.

6. Teenage pregnancy: Americans over-estimate that one quarter (23.9%) of all teenage girls aged 15-19 give birth each year, when the actual figure is only 3.1%-- a perception gap of -20.8 points."

The Country Accuracy Rankings: Perceptions versus Realities



http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/p...e.aspx?id=6657

THAT is amazing! Although it does confirm my belief in the dumbing down of America... But there is no way I'd have answered those survey questions the way they seem to have been answered by so many.

Heck, if I thought # 3 was correct, I'd be moving ASAP!

If I thought # 5 was correct, I'd be packing regardless of the CCW situation in CA.

Perhaps if the news concentrated on fact driven news, rather than political pundits and social media trends... Naw... If if isn't on their cell phone screen, it seemingly is oblivious to many Americans now.

[Dirk Hofman]

Originally Posted by Bob Womack

#4 doesn't take into account those who have dropped out of the workforce and are no longer seeking employmentdue to inability to find work and those who are under-employed (ie. engineer flipping burgers).

Bob

The U-3 has never taken this into account. The official unemployment rate is the U-3. So the figure is correct.

If one wants to have a discussion about the U-4 rate, that's fine, but to look at it now versus U-3 rates historically makes no sense. Looking at both charted over time will give you a reasonable basis for discussion.

[RustyZombie]

Originally Posted by kydave

Perhaps if the news concentrated on fact driven news, rather than political pundits and social media trends... Naw... If if isn't on their cell phone screen, it seemingly is oblivious to many Americans now.

I have to agree with this. Many of my generation and younger have no problem reading from a screen, but are often completely oblivious to what is right in front of them.

And I'm apparently weird for having never owned a smart phone. I'm still not sure how a smart phone differs from an ordinary cellphone.

[Fatstrat]

Statistics are certainly confusing at times. I've never understood why one number is released and then later revised. Why not just wait until you have the correct number before releasing anything?
Then as Bob Womack points out, there are the stats that seem to purposely omit relevant aspects. Along with those so often given that are apparently made up on the spot in attempt to sway the weak minded and have 0 basis in fact. It's to the point to me that I view pretty all statistical information with a cynical eye of suspicion.

[fazool]

Our greatest mis-perception is that our news media outlets tell the truth objectively.

That fact itself lays the foundation for all of our other misunderstandings.

[D. Shelton]

I'm shocked that Americans mispercieve so much . Those figures are abominable ; just unbelievable . We're way dumber than I thought. I mispercieved our ability to percieve

[hovishead]

I suppose it's easy to misjudge when you live in an area that magnifies certain perceptions.

My stepdaughter lives in an area of London where the vast majority of people are Muslims. I'd imagine her perception of the number of Muslims in the country is a lot higher than mine.

[Fatstrat]

Originally Posted by d. Shelton

i'm shocked that americans mispercieve so much . Those figures are abominable ; just unbelievable . We're way dumber than i thought. I mispercieved our ability to percieve

lol! :d:d:d

[HHP]

Fairly easy to understand.

1. The Media

2. Politicians pushing agendas

Those two account for around 90% of distorted perceptions.

[Twelvefret]

Originally Posted by Herb Hunter

Teenage pregnancy: Americans over-estimate that one quarter (23.9%) of all teenage girls aged 15-19 give birth each year, when the actual figure is only 3.1%-- a perception gap of -20.8 points."[/INDENT]

The key words there are "give birth". The figures might be overstated because there are more pregnancies that live births. How did you miss that, Herb?

[zabdart]

Originally Posted by Herb Hunter

According to an Ipsos survey we fair worse than many other countries when it comes to misperceptions. Here are a few things we tend to get wrong in the USA:

"3. Muslims: we hugely over-estimate the proportion of Muslims in the US – we think one in seven (15%) of people are Muslims when the actual figure is 1%--a perception gap of -14.4 points.

4. Unemployment: Americans over-estimate that nearly 32.1% of the working age population is unemployed when the actual figure is much lower at 6%-- a perception gap of -26.1 points.

5. Murder rate: Americans are dead wrong on their murder rate with 51% saying it is rising (which is incorrect) whereas only 30% think it is falling (which is correct) and 18% say they don’t know—a perception gap of -21 points.

6. Teenage pregnancy: Americans over-estimate that one quarter (23.9%) of all teenage girls aged 15-19 give birth each year, when the actual figure is only 3.1%-- a perception gap of -20.8 points."

The Country Accuracy Rankings: Perceptions versus Realities



http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/p...e.aspx?id=6657

Apparently, we also misperceive how to spell. I think you wanted to use "fare" in this case, rather than "fair."

[ewalling]

Originally Posted by zabdart

Apparently, we also misperceive how to spell. I think you wanted to use "fare" in this case, rather than "fair."

I do hope the missing smiley there was an oversight ...

[Teleman52]

The 6% unemployment rate figure is sort of a meaningless number really, it may be official, but it doesnt paint a real picture of whats going on in the country. You should include all unemployment figures (U1-U6) to get a real view of how we are doing on that front.

Other than that, How is anyone supposed to just know these figures off the top of their heads? Does this mean that they (we) are ignorant? I dont think so