The Guitar Industry May Be Thriving

[SpiderTrap]

May be thriving with some of the very best acoustics ever produced . but There is a GLUT . Problem is Kids aren't ( MOST ) into guitar , as their I-Phone is much more important and they have a short attention span . Quick Gratification You are NOT gonna Get learning Acoustic Guitar unless you are Blessed somehow , and kids today thrive on instant gratification. Most new music Genres only include a BEAT and or Synth and people screaming nonsense which is NON understandable . Then there's an occasional one that sounds good but very rare . AND THE CROWD CHEERS >? Unbelievable ... There is a GLUT TOO Many Guitars , not enough people buying from what I see. When I go into the local guitar store and several guitars are literally pushed in my FACE , That's has RED FLAG Written all over it .. ...

It's similar to what occured with HAM RADIO BIG in the 50s 60s and wained in the 70s and today NO YOUNGSTERS to heed the cause ..

[1neeto]

The way you spelled “I-Phone” has “get off my lawn” written all over it. [emoji23]

But I’m all seriousness I have to agree. Kids nowadays just want results yesterday. Many don’t have the patience and dedication it takes to learn 3 simple chords. Many might find a 20 minute YouTube instructional video way too long, and rather go back to that 6 second cat video they saw trending on Instagram.

But there’s a few that do love guitar, proud to say my 18 year old son is quite good at it, even if he doesn’t play as often as he should.

[6L6]

I see things the same way as the OP.

[Silurian]

If there is a glut, I don't believe kids are to blame. if they play guitar they probably only own one.

Who could be buying all these guitars that has led to the glut?

[Gasworker]

Darned whippersnappers. I remember the good ole days.
Wait a minute I'll be right back!

"HEY you, ya you, I won't tell you again, GET OFF MY LAWN"

Okay I'm back. Where was . Oh ya, we can't bust heads like we used to. But we have our ways. One trick is to tell stories that don't go anywhere. Like the time I caught the ferry to Shelbyville. I needed a new heel for m'shoe. So I decided to go to Morganville, which is what they called Shelbyville in those days. So I tied an onion to my belt, which was the style at the time. Now, to take the ferry cost a nickel, and in those days, nickels had pictures of bumblebees on 'em. "Gimme five bees for a quarter," you'd say. Now where were we... oh yeah. The important thing was that I had an onion on my belt, which was the style at the time. I didn't have any white onions, because of the war. The only thing you could get was those big yellow ones...

[imwjl]

I think you missed one important point on wanting instant gratification - putting some blame or aim at parents.

The kids are quite the same as ever. I know this pretty well. I see it all the time. I'm a leader in an organization with 450+ kids in our programs, and am an older parent with some younger kids.

The organization I mentioned struggles to get parents to be involved the way they were for most of our 70 years in existence.

My wife teaches in a large public school and I think is in her 27th year at it. She sees a lot of change needs to have eyes on parents when it comes to blame or cause. When she's got the resources and time she can educate, assist and shape kids as she's always been able to.

There are parents who should not have kids but also a whole lot of working poor, and that phone you criticize is quite a life line for them and their kids. Even the not working poor. When I grew up a lot of the families didn't need two working parents. For us and others we know or knew it was that plus to afford getting out of a bad neighborhood.

Other parts of your arguments are shaky at best. HAM radio was never too popular and kids still do pursue things like it. My one child who does like that sort of thing surprises me with what he knows about old technology including radio. Why would he do that when he can study and do that with Adruino and other components but also buy raw LEDs, chips, wood, plastics and make modern stuff using old school and new skills? He got past radio really fast. He's only 13, didn't memorize what a radio operator knows but sure learned two computer programming languages fast.

You're way into grumbly get off my lawn mode. I watch kids have all the old school skills and get impressed with how they do new stuff. They're great with a soldering iron, saw, drill press and add knowing programming languages.

There's nothing wrong with my kid (and others) who gave up musical instruments but programs music in chips and wants to have a lathe and drill press in their basement.

[BrunoBlack]

“...Most new music Genres only include a BEAT and or Synth and people screaming nonsense which is NON understandable . Then there's an occasional one that sounds good but very rare . AND THE CROWD CHEERS >? Unbelievable ... ”

This sounds like my father 50-60 yeas ago. I think each generation appreciates music in its own way. Perhaps a shared sense of appreciation emerges. But it’s all good IMO.

[Silly Moustache]

I've been saying this for years (mostly on this forum) and most say I'm talking trash.

Of course there will be exceptions, and maybe the balance will be corrected - only those younger people with a combination of talent, ability and respect for hard work will become the musicians of the future.

Music, photography and so many other aspects of creativity and enjoyment have been over simplified by technology.

I remember Stefan Grossman telling me that he could buy Martin 40 series 00and 000 guitars up really cheap in the sixties because no-one wanted them - they wanted elecs or dreads.

In the '50s and '60s about the only guitars in the music shop windows in the UK and Europe were German made archtops because formerly - it was dance band music that set the demand in previous decades.

The boom in guitar playing has (really) been driven by the Baby boomers as and when they became suitably affluent.

The industry depended mainly on these.

Baby boomer years are (I'm told - 1946 to 1964. Frankly I'd put it more like 1945 to 1955ish but even now we are seeing signs of the glut that the OP rightly mentions.

Once, when buying a new Martin or Gibson guitar, you could reasonably tell your wife that it will appreciate over the next ten/twenty years, but apart from inflation, I don't think that is realistic any more.

If my wife can realise 2/3rds of the price of my "purchased used" collection, I'd be happy for her.

I'm currently watching a number of higher value instruments (Martins, Gibsons, Collings etc., on UK Ebay.... they aren't selling, being relisted continually.

Even if the last baby boomers were born in 1964 (by which time I was a gigging muso) they will reach their 70s by 2034.
I predict that there will be no market for 20th century flat-tops by then or even by 2020. (If there are any of us still on this little planet).

[imwjl]

Originally Posted by Silly Moustache

I've been saying this for years (mostly on this forum) and most say I'm talking trash.

Of course there will be exceptions, and maybe the balance will be corrected - only those younger people with a combination of talent, ability and respect for hard work will become the musicians of the future.

Music, photography and so many other aspects of creativity and enjoyment have been over simplified by technology.

I remember Stefan Grossman telling me that he could buy Martin 40 series 00and 000 guitars up really cheap in the sixties because no-one wanted them - they wanted elecs or dreads.

In the '50s and '60s about the only guitars in the music shop windows in the UK and Europe were German made archtops because formerly - it was dance band music that set the demand in previous decades.

The boom in guitar playing has (really) been driven by the Baby boomers as and when they became suitably affluent.

The industry depended mainly on these.

Baby boomer years are (I'm told - 1946 to 1964. Frankly I'd put it more like 1945 to 1955ish but even now we are seeing signs of the glut that the OP rightly mentions.

Once, when buying a new Martin or Gibson guitar, you could reasonably tell your wife that it will appreciate over the next ten/twenty years, but apart from inflation, I don't think that is realistic any more.

If my wife can realise 2/3rds of the price of my "purchased used" collection, I'd be happy for her.

I'm currently watching a number of higher value instruments (Martins, Gibsons, Collings etc., on UK Ebay.... they aren't selling, being relisted continually.

Even if the last baby boomers were born in 1964 (by which time I was a gigging muso) they will reach their 70s by 2034.
I predict that there will be no market for 20th century flat-tops by then or even by 2020. (If there are any of us still on this little planet).

Two things you're forgetting.

1. A whole lot of WW II vets and women born early 1930s and before had kids into the early 1960s.
2. Demographics, supply and demand. Where the middle class is in a spectrum of shrinking through thriving.

A nice Martin except for some rare ones and most all Collings are pretty much common stuff for the truly wealthy. A whole lot of pre-owned custom stuff is not what a lot of the truly wealthy want.

I'll disagree on photography. One of my first jobs was being a darkroom technician and assistant at an old publishing firm and working with 8x10 and 4x5 cameras. Lighting and framing is still the same challenge even with my Canon bodies, L lenses and 3 wireless flash units. Earlier in the month I was working with someone who had a $6000 drone holding a tremendous camera and all the rules for framing, light and what's attractive still apply. It's like our 1930 Modal A Ford. Some aspects of a car are easier now but that's not the same as being a good driver.

Most people choose options that add convenience, safety and save time.

We do things that add convenience, safety and time to better accommodate the old fashioned parts of raising kids discussed here and so I get my own time with a guitar.

[FrankHudson]

Something of a perennial topic here it seems.

Generations are vague and fuzzy things. Because of the world-wide disruption of WWII, the idea arose that there was a generally unified experience and response to that experience that would mark an age cohort. This of course is great over-exaggeration--but cultural events hitting a age cohort at a point in time can have fairly broad impact. I'll grant that being a teenager experiencing the rise of the Beatles and it's aftermath was such an impact. As great as the general mobilization of WWII? Unlikely, but such things are still considerable. And because the "Boomer" generation has such a sharp starting line of 1945, this reinforced the idea that generations were like astrologic star signs, with starting and finishing dates and purportedly accurate predictors of personalities based simply on when one was born.

This of course is pretty close to balderdash. That's not to say that the OP isn't right (or wrong) about present and future sales of acoustic guitars or ham radio sets. Ham radio (and even regular broadcast radio) was magical in my youth, today the Internet makes all that seem quaint (assuming normal power delivery--Ham operators and regular broadcaster equipped with backup generators have important roles in disasters). I don't have acoustic guitar sales info for the US, the English speaking world, or the world handy, I doubt the OP has these figures either. Are they greater or lesser in 2017 as let's say a year in the early 70s when "everyone" wanted to be James Taylor, Bert Jansch, Joni Mitchell, Bob Dylan, Richie Havens or Neil Young etc.? I don't know. I'd guess they'll be greater in 2017 as the population is greater and the availability of cost-effective, good playing, decent sounding acoustic guitars is much greater.

But sales are a matter of facts and figures. It's part of the "softer" generalizations that I feel I must dispute. The idea that the now aging folks who created hip hop were talentless bums is a matter of opinion, not a universal and self-evident truth. I'll sigh and let that pass. The idea that electronic music, the dream born of members of my father's generation, is limited and inferior, inherently inauthentic, I'll similarly pass on that as a difference in taste. After all, as other threads here show, folks here don't even agree on what good acoustic guitar music is, so that's not unusual. I tend to have a "I just don't care for that right now" attitude about music I don't make or listen to, but I'll allow that I know many cases of good art that was made by folks driven by anger and disgust at other art that they just couldn't stand.

But the idea, vaguely but broadly stated, that "young people" right now are some untalented, lazy, artistically uninvolved group seems wrong to my observation. In any cohort of people, the portion willing to put real work into something, and then again, to put that work into something as "chancy" as art, is a subset. I'm not even sure what young people are being referred to. 30 something whippersnappers? Middle school students? I just don't objectively see any great cultural movement away from practicing and producing art. Just taking music in particular, we know that the economic systems to pay musicians are much worse than they were even 20 years ago, and yet there are more bands and solo artists, more recordings. Even if you limit this to recordings and performers using acoustic guitar there's more than I can find time to listen to. You may not like their music (and Sturgeon's law, after all) but I don't think this crowd of folks performing music is due to aging baby boomers, however one defines the vague end of their sharp starting line.

[fazool]

We are very active parents in our kids' school.

The music program at our (state-ranked sports) school is phenomenol. We have so much participation it's amazing.

I see tons of kids interested in music at the school level (more than when I was a kid).

As well, we didn't even have open mics or coffee houses when I was coming of age.

I think it's doing great. I've read past studies that acoustic guitars are selling more than ever because of rebounding interest. The past 1-2 years may be a dip down but up to then it was booming.

[jpd]

Originally Posted by Silurian

If there is a glut, I don't believe kids are to blame. if they play guitar they probably only own one.

Who could be buying all these guitars that has led to the glut?

Bravo! And most people that play owned only one for generations. Blame marketing, disposable income from the Boomers, and hold on to your hats....the downturn has begun

[Looburst]

We can all speculate but the fact is, like everything else, the acoustic market has it's fluctuations. Nobody knows what the future will hold for anything you buy online or in person. The reason a guitar will go home with any John Q Buyer is still based on three simple things, sound, feel and visual appeal.

And that all rhymes!

[imwjl]

Originally Posted by FrankHudson

But the idea, vaguely but broadly stated, that "young people" right now are some untalented, lazy, artistically uninvolved group seems wrong to my observation. In any cohort of people, the portion willing to put real work into something, and then again, to put that work into something as "chancy" as art, is a subset. I'm not even sure what young people are being referred to. 30 something whippersnappers? Middle school students? I just don't objectively see any great cultural movement away from practicing and producing art. Just taking music in particular, we know that the economic systems to pay musicians are much worse than they were even 20 years ago, and yet there are more bands and solo artists, more recordings. Even if you limit this to recordings and performers using acoustic guitar there's more than I can find time to listen to. You may not like their music (and Sturgeon's law, after all) but I don't think this crowd of folks performing music is due to aging baby boomers, however one defines the vague end of their sharp starting line.

This.

Originally Posted by fazool

We are very active parents in our kids' school.

The music program at our (state-ranked sports) school is phenomenol. We have so much participation it's amazing.

I see tons of kid sinterested in music at the school level (more than when I was a kid).

As well, we didn't even have open mics or coffee houses when I was coming of age.

I think it's doing great. I've read pat studies that acoustic guitars are selling more than ever because of rebounding interest. The past 1-2 years may be a dip down but up to then it was booming.

This.

I'm amazed by the talent I see and what the young do with it. If anything is different, it seems to be the winners are winning more and the losers are losing more. I don't know what salvation or hope there is for those not motivated, those without resources and those without the skills and grit you need to make it.

[cotten]

I cannot speak to sweeping trends related to guitar playing among children and youth. I can tell you that each summer, I teach on the faculty of an youth music camp. My guitar classes fill up every year. I always have several more students who what me to teach them guitar than I have time for. I have two granddaughters, 10 and 7 - both of whom are getting a solid foundation in piano, but fully intend to play guitar one day, like their Dad and Granddad. The last time I visited my closest Guitar Center, within an hour I helped two parents select guitars for their kids for Christmas.

Trends may be different, but from my vantage point, there are a great many kids interested in playing guitar these days.

cotten