Are we in for a bad winter, or is all the talk just talk?

[Fatstrat]

Originally Posted by gjd100

Taking no chances ...

Needed this last year and they were sold out. Just arrived. .What a beaut....


http://www.homedepot.com/p/True-Temp...5510/202943651

Now you probably won't need it. Several (5-6) years ago we had BAD ice storm here in NE Okla. Killed two trees in my yard. Bent them over until the tops were touching the ground. Electric was out for a week.
Luckily I was able to find a kerosine heater to keep the house warm. And that was a LUCKY find. All such items as well as generators disappeared from stores overnite. Before the next winter I bought an electric generator. It's sitting in my shed, still in the box.

[gjd100]

Originally Posted by Fatstrat

Now you probably won't need it. Several (5-6) years ago we had BAD ice storm here in NE Okla. Killed two trees in my yard. Bent them over until the tops were touching the ground. Electric was out for a week.
Luckily I was able to find a kerosine heater to keep the house warm. And that was a LUCKY find. All such items as well as generators disappeared from stores overnite. Before the next winter I bought an electric generator. It's sitting in my shed, still in the box.

Absolutely. ..I hope I jynxed ole man winter, and it will be collecting dust...That will be ok with me. Same goes for the generator, snowblower. .........

[Nailpicker]

Originally Posted by KevWind

Have no clue if this relates but, my wife an I have noticed a few straggler Hummingbirds 3, are still coming to our last feeder even this morning

I don't know if that is normal for you or not, but we have 3 stragglers here as well. By now in previous years we'd be down to a single straggler by this time in Sept.

[Nailpicker]

Originally Posted by Fatstrat

Now you probably won't need it. Several (5-6) years ago we had BAD ice storm here in NE Okla. Killed two trees in my yard. Bent them over until the tops were touching the ground. Electric was out for a week.
Luckily I was able to find a kerosine heater to keep the house warm. And that was a LUCKY find. All such items as well as generators disappeared from stores overnite. Before the next winter I bought an electric generator. It's sitting in my shed, still in the box.

I had a metal roof put on the house a few years ago. Now I don't need a roof rake because snow slides right off. But where I live, described as "no man's land" by most everyone including the people at our county seat, we have frequent power outages year round. I've got several kerosene and LP stand alone space heaters and two generators. Fatstrat, did you know that you are supposed to run generators 20-30 minutes every month to keep them lubed and to be sure you can actually start them if and when you need them?

[RedJoker]

Originally Posted by Riker36

I think they're throwing darts or pulling forecasts out of a hat. They have a hard time with the 7 day forecast, how can they possibly nail something 6 months out?

I often hear this but is this really a problem where everyone lives? Sure, we might get a forecast that says 50% chance of rain and it might not rain, or maybe it does in the area but not at my house. But I don't view that as getting the forecast wrong. There might be a couple times a year where a front moves a bit north or south of what the models projected so things aren't exactly as they predicted but it was close. The other thing I see is that folks look at an extended forecast that says rain but by the time the day rolls around, the rain has shifted a day earlier or later than originally predicted. Again, I don't view this as wrong.

Do I happen to live in an 'easy to predict' part of the US?

[Herb Hunter]

As a pilot, I’ve been impressed by how much the accuracy of weather forecasts as improved over the years. Still, many people continue to unthinkingly accuse forecasters of always being wrong.

[gjd100]

Originally Posted by Nailpicker

...............did you know that you are supposed to run generators 20-30 minutes every month to keep them lubed and to be sure you can actually start them if and when you need them?

Thanks for the reminder...Haven't started mine in 5 or so months......It's now on my weekend to do list.

[YamaYairi]

It seems like what the Summer is like is an indicator. This Summer was cooler than normal here, so I am expecting another bitter cold Winter, here in Frozen Tundra, Ohio. If I'm wrong, I'll be pleasantly surprised.

[Twelvefret]

Originally Posted by KevWind

Have no clue if this relates but, my wife an I have noticed a few straggler Hummingbirds 3, are still coming to our last feeder even this morning

Same here.

[Nailpicker]

Originally Posted by YamaYairi

It seems like what the Summer is like is an indicator. This Summer was cooler than normal here, so I am expecting another bitter cold Winter, here in Frozen Tundra, Ohio. If I'm wrong, I'll be pleasantly surprised.

That is an old adage that has seemed largely to work for predicting snow fall as well. I have for many years made mid-summer snowfall predictions to family and friends for the coming winter by how much summer rainfall there has been. I've been remarkably correct, if I dare say so, (or I should say the adage has been correct) in making general predictions (above/below average or average) for winter snowfall. I've not been so accurate in predicting winter temps. But I've not used the summer temp as a predictor. I have used other natural predictors that old timers used for generations. Those predictors are fairly accurate, but only if one can assess and use several different predictors in unison.

[seannx]

Originally Posted by RedJoker

I often hear this but is this really a problem where everyone lives? Sure, we might get a forecast that says 50% chance of rain and it might not rain, or maybe it does in the area but not at my house. But I don't view that as getting the forecast wrong. There might be a couple times a year where a front moves a bit north or south of what the models projected so things aren't exactly as they predicted but it was close. The other thing I see is that folks look at an extended forecast that says rain but by the time the day rolls around, the rain has shifted a day earlier or later than originally predicted. Again, I don't view this as wrong.

Do I happen to live in an 'easy to predict' part of the US?

I think there is something to this. When I lived in places on the east coast (CT, MA, VA, and FL) the weather forecasting was more reliable then it's been since I moved to the SF Bay Area in 1986. Most of the time, I have a good idea where things are going just by looking out the window. The reporting has improved, but still isn't as reliable as when I'm traveling on the east coast. It would be interesting to see the accuracy chart broken down regionally or by major cities.

[Davis Webb]

Climate change deniers won't like what I have to say, but yes we are in for a lot of bad weather. The polar vortex has been disrupted by warming and the protective layer that keeps arctic air under check has been damaged.

[duff beer]

Davis...how can someone be a "denier" if a theory has not been proven as fact?

[RedJoker]

Originally Posted by duff beer

Davis...how can someone be a "denier" if a theory has not been proven as fact?

You do know that there is no such thing as 'fact' or 'law' in science, right? Theory and observation are as high as we go.

On a side note, why does anyone argue whether its real or not? That is not why people are passionate about the topic. People REALLY get fired up when we talk about what we should do. Why don't we even discuss that? Why is it "AGW" vs. "Deniers" when we should be talking about efficiency research spending, extent of pollution control, energy source allocation, etc? Why does everyone hide behind an argument where it doesn't matter who's right or wrong, it's how we deal with the current situation? Ultimately, it's a discussion of folks saying we should spend more dollars here and another group saying we shouldn't.

I just don't get it...

[SongwriterFan]

Originally Posted by Davis Webb

Climate change deniers won't like what I have to say, but yes we are in for a lot of bad weather.

I think they said something about a lot more and stronger hurricanes a decade ago, too.

Oops!