Are we in for a bad winter, or is all the talk just talk?

[PorkPieGuy]

I live in the foothills of NC, and there's been a whole lotta talk about how bad this winter is going to be. I think that the prediction is more for ice than snow.

In the past, I've just ignored this sort of thing; however, we had so much out-of-the-ordinary snow last year, I can't help but at least take notice. In contrast, I actually saw an old timer meteorologist on TV several years ago (during a newscast nonetheless) say that there's really no way to accurately predict weather more than 3-4 days out. After that it's anyone's guess.


So what's your theory? Is there REALLY any accurate way to predict a bad winter that doesn't include putting beans in jar in August?

[Herb Hunter]

From Weather.com:

Winter 2013-2014 may be a cold one for some in the Midwest, but relatively mild in other parts of the nation, according to the winter outlook released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Background Dec-Feb NOAA Temperature Outlook
Dec-Feb NOAA Temperature Outlook
NOAA meteorologists are calling for colder-than-average temperatures across a small swath of the Northern Plains from northeast Montana into parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota.

Conversely, warmer-than-average temperatures this winter are expected from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains and Deep South.

This is roughly in agreement with the latest winter outlook from The Weather Channel issued on Nov. 19, calling for generally colder-than-average temperatures over the northern tier of states, from Washington state to northern New England, and near or warmer-than-average temperatures over roughly the southern two-thirds of the nation. The rest of the nation has equal chances of a cold or warm winter, according to NOAA.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-...-2014-20131121

[KevWind]

Have no clue if this relates but, my wife an I have noticed a few straggler Hummingbirds 3, are still coming to our last feeder even this morning

[Raycan2]

I live in Wy where we have to kinds of winters,
Early winters or late winters but it's coming

[KevWind]

Originally Posted by Raycan2

I live in Wy where we have to kinds of winters,
Early winters or late winters but it's coming

Tell me about it

[fitness1]

A bad winter in NC?? Trade you!

[Bingoccc]

For the long range stuff I'm in the group that thinks the best they can do is a rough estimate based on El Nino/La Nina. http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/

[jpd]

Out my way we are in the middle of a drought. As I right this the first real rain of the summer has finally come! Hoping for torrential downpours all winter. There is no way to predict any weather patterns.

[Fatstrat]

I recall awhile back, maybe last year when they predicted a major hurricane season for the U.S. Didn't happen. Not even close. IMO it's mostly well meaning hype. Sort of a "better to be safe than sorry" outlook. If it happens, you were warned. If not, oh well. They are covered both ways. Who complains about good weather?
I sympathize with your concern. Some of the worst icy roads I ever drove on in my trucking career are in eastern Tennessee, North Carolina and Virginia.

[Scootch]

Originally Posted by jpd

Out my way we are in the middle of a drought. As I right this the first real rain of the summer has finally come! Hoping for torrential downpours all winter. There is no way to predict any weather patterns.

Love those landslides, do you?

[mr. beaumont]

Upper level wind patterns dictate a lot, and they can be predicted with today's technology.

So yeah, looks like another cold one for the midwest.

[lmacmil]

Originally Posted by fitness1

A bad winter in NC?? Trade you!

That's kind of what I was thinking!

I've heard the same rumor. I can't imagine it being much worse than last year.

[jpd]

Originally Posted by Scootch

Love those landslides, do you?

I'll take 'em .....long as the reservoir fills up.

[gjd100]

Taking no chances ...

Needed this last year and they were sold out. Just arrived. .What a beaut....


http://www.homedepot.com/p/True-Temp...5510/202943651

[Riker36]

I think they're throwing darts or pulling forecasts out of a hat. They have a hard time with the 7 day forecast, how can they possibly nail something 6 months out?