Gas prices.

[HHP]

Its interesting that people had this debate years ago as to whether we should exploit domestic reserves more and what effect it would have. I can recall those who proposed more production called all sorts of names and "experts" laughed at the possibility of $2 a gal. claiming we could only possibly drop the per gallon price by pennies.

[Fatstrat]

Originally Posted by HHP

Its interesting that people had this debate years ago as to whether we should exploit domestic reserves more and what effect it would have. I can recall those who proposed more production called all sorts of names and "experts" laughed at the possibility of $2 a gal. claiming we could only possibly drop the per gallon price by pennies.

That's been part of the argument against drilling in ANWR Alaska for a couple of decades. More recently against the Keystone pipeline and Fracking.

[Basalt Beach]

Originally Posted by Fatstrat

High beef prices are due to the drought when many ranchers were forced to sell off herds due to no water. Now rebuilding them.
But oil/gas prices are based (supposedly) on supply & demand.

The price of corn (which had been above $5.00 a bushel) had a greater impact the herd size than the drought. We work with several folks who have confirmed. You are correct, the herd size is increasing and if you track the price of corn it is back under $4.00 a bushel.

World demand for oil has declined due to economic issues (China, Europe). Fazool is right about the Saudi's. It is also believed they want to target the tar sands and NGL fracking which we have been told need somewhere between $60 to $75 barrel of oil to be profitable. Someone closer to that industry may be available to provide greater insight.

[mstuartev]

Extracting the last ounces of dirty oil will trash our remaining pristine wildernesses. The media and political leaders (sic) want you to focus on that and NOT on renewable energies. Walk, ride your bicycle, public transit and drive you car less.

[RedJoker]

Originally Posted by mstuartev

Walk, ride your bicycle, public transit and drive you car less.

As an American, that is completely unacceptable.

[KevWind]

Originally Posted by Fatstrat

After decades of being told that increased oil production in the U.S. would have 0 effect on gas prices.We are now seeing what we instinctively knew was really the truth. Increasing U.S. oil production does indeed lower overall fuel prices. Which one would think would be a great help to the economy as the vast majority of dollars saved will likely be spent on some other commodity.
But instead we are seeing the stock market plunge. Reportedly in response to "the lowest fuel prices since 2011". How can 3 YEARS make that much difference?

In answer your question "about three years" the reason is the price of gas up or down involves and is affected by far far more complexity than simply increased production, let alone simply US oil production.
Now no doubt increased production helps with the "supply" side of the equation but to be clear there has been a steady increase in oil production world wide which has shown very little correlation to gas prices.

In fact the three charts below pretty much negate the statement Increasing "U.S. oil production does indeed lower overall fuel prices. " As historically as a single factor of "increased production" , has not proven to be true, as clearly shown by the #4 graph.

Because if that were actually true then the "price of gas graph#2" would be a corresponding mirror inverse of the the "US production graph #1" which in fact it is not. Even the adjusted for inflation gas price chart #3 is all over the place and shows little correlation to simply " increased production"

graph #1



graph #2



graph #3



graph #4

[Silly Moustache]

Originally Posted by fazool

I heard this price drop had nothing to do with US production. Saudi Arabia released excess stores and flooded the market in a deliberate marketing competition attempt to devastate Iran and Russia's oil business - which is working.

What we may be seeing is a drop in the bucket to what their economies are feeling.


That's what I heard

I believe that it is a temporary strategy - part of the sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine/Crimea issue.

Prices for a gallon of fuel in the UK have fallen to less than (the equivalent of) $10.

As about 60% of the price goes to the Exchequer - this does little good for our deficit.

[duff beer]

Originally Posted by mstuartev

Extracting the last ounces of dirty oil will trash our remaining pristine wildernesses. The media and political leaders (sic) want you to focus on that and NOT on renewable energies. Walk, ride your bicycle, public transit and drive you car less.

Where do you get your information from? Are you unaware of how many billions are spent every single year on "renewable" energy?? Are you unaware of the daily media and political hype for alternative energy, and how many times every day that we are told how "dirty" oil is?

[SongwriterFan]

No, no, no . . . the cause is that the Evil Big Oil Companies (EBOC) have finally decided to quit arbitrarily charging so much and give us consumers a break.

Funny how EBOC is always accused of conspiring to keep prices high, but never seem to get equal credit when prices are low.

US Oil production has risen to record highs (I think highest since the 70's) largely due to production associated with "shale plays" that are developed with long horizontals (over a mile or two of horizontal drilling) and multiple hydraulic frac jobs along said horizontal wells (I think close to 40 jobs in a single well is the current record).

These wells have a history of very high initial oil rates (leading to relatively quick payout of the high drilling and completion costs), but they also decline EXTREMELY rapidly. Often the second year's production is only one third of the production of the previous year. The actual reserves able to be captured by a single well is still the subject of much debate.

Also, the economics of many of these wells (for an undrilled location) are questionable at the current low oil prices). As mentioned previously, the well costs are very high. And some of the plays (the Bakken, for example) only get prices that are $15 less than WTI due to high transportation charges and oil quality deducts.

My own company (we don't have any "shale oil", although we did at one point in time) has cut our 2015 capital budget by about 50%. I've already seen other companies cutting budgets (the most recent, I think, was Conoco at about 20%).

I recently learned that many of these independent "shale oil" producers were spending about TWICE their revenue on drilling and completing wells, made possible by cash inflows from private equity lending. I suspect most of that lending will cease (if it hasn't already), leading to a big downturn in spending on these kinds of wells. Some drilling will continue to hold leases (where necessary) or where longer-term drilling contracts require drilling to continue.

This downturn will have a big impact on US Oil production over the next few years if oil prices remain low. That's just one of the reasons that OPEC (mainly Saudi Arabia) has decided NOT to cut production in order to help support oil prices. They believe that the high-cost producers should be the ones to regulate oil production to stabilized prices . . and they're obviously prepared to make that happen.

[Fatstrat]

Originally Posted by SongwriterFan

No, no, no . . . the cause is that the Evil Big Oil Companies (EBOC) have finally decided to quit arbitrarily charging so much and give us consumers a break.

Funny how EBOC is always accused of conspiring to keep prices high, but never seem to get equal credit when prices are low.

US Oil production has risen to record highs (I think highest since the 70's) largely due to production associated with "shale plays" that are developed with long horizontals (over a mile or two of horizontal drilling) and multiple hydraulic frac jobs along said horizontal wells (I think close to 40 jobs in a single well is the current record).

These wells have a history of very high initial oil rates (leading to relatively quick payout of the high drilling and completion costs), but they also decline EXTREMELY rapidly. Often the second year's production is only one third of the production of the previous year. The actual reserves able to be captured by a single well is still the subject of much debate.

Also, the economics of many of these wells (for an undrilled location) are questionable at the current low oil prices). As mentioned previously, the well costs are very high. And some of the plays (the Bakken, for example) only get prices that are $15 less than WTI due to high transportation charges and oil quality deducts.

My own company (we don't have any "shale oil", although we did at one point in time) has cut our 2015 capital budget by about 50%. I've already seen other companies cutting budgets (the most recent, I think, was Conoco at about 20%).

I recently learned that many of these independent "shale oil" producers were spending about TWICE their revenue on drilling and completing wells, made possible by cash inflows from private equity lending. I suspect most of that lending will cease (if it hasn't already), leading to a big downturn in spending on these kinds of wells. Some drilling will continue to hold leases (where necessary) or where longer-term drilling contracts require drilling to continue.

This downturn will have a big impact on US Oil production over the next few years if oil prices remain low. That's just one of the reasons that OPEC (mainly Saudi Arabia) has decided NOT to cut production in order to help support oil prices. They believe that the high-cost producers should be the ones to regulate oil production to stabilized prices . . and they're obviously prepared to make that happen.

Might add that this is w/o what we once had in Gulf of Mexico production.

[mstuartev]

Originally Posted by duff beer

Where do you get your information from? Are you unaware of how many billions are spent every single year on "renewable" energy?? Are you unaware of the daily media and political hype for alternative energy, and how many times every day that we are told how "dirty" oil is?

I'm not going to get into a tit for tat.

[sfden1]

Originally Posted by Fatstrat

Might add that this is w/o what we once had in Gulf of Mexico production.

I'm confused. Are you saying that we no longer are getting oil from the Gulf? Or that Gulf production has decreased? That is not my impression, but then I'm no expert on these things. Please explain.

[sfden1]

Originally Posted by SongwriterFan

That's just one of the reasons that OPEC (mainly Saudi Arabia) has decided NOT to cut production in order to help support oil prices. They believe that the high-cost producers should be the ones to regulate oil production to stabilized prices . . and they're obviously prepared to make that happen.

So, Saudi Arabia has decided not to cut production despite decreases in prices, plus world wide demand has decreased. In other words, supply and demand at work. Oh wait, it's solely because US production has increased

Seems to me there are several factors at work here. Nothing's ever simple, is it.

[HHP]

Originally Posted by sfden1

So, Saudi Arabia has decided not to cut production despite decreases in prices, plus world wide demand has decreased. In other words, supply and demand at work. Oh wait, it's solely because US production has increased

Seems to me there are several factors at work here. Nothing's ever simple, is it.

Increases in US production, and the attendant reduction in imports, is at the root of the current price. The Saudis keeping production up is to try and put pressure on US sources via lower prices and also keep their own revenue from dropping too much. Its not simple, but its not much more complicated than that.

[Silly Moustache]

Does anyone here know how much US oil is shipped to EMEIA, as compared to other sources?