more (and more) wacky weather here

[KevWind]

Originally Posted by Dirk Hofman

Skied in 2 feet of powder on Thursday, 3 more feet yesterday, and this next storm is supposed to drop 6 more by Tuesday am.

Tahoe resorts reporting up to 18+ feet of base snow.

Wow 18 at the base ...Heading back up to Wyoming on Thursday for a month of skiing at Jackson Hole. Which has had a total of something like 18 ft total snow fall for the year (not base depth) . But some warmer weather last week has caused a lot of condensing and it now is reporting 3 -4 ft depth the base of the mountain, and 8 ft at the top of the Tram.... can't wait !!

[Dirk Hofman]

Originally Posted by KevWind

Wow 18 at the base ...Heading back up to Wyoming on Thursday for a month of skiing at Jackson Hole. Which has had a total of something like 18 ft total snow fall for the year (not base depth) . But some warmer weather last week has caused a lot of condensing and it now is reporting 3 -4 ft depth the base of the mountain, and 8 ft at the top of the Tram.... can't wait !!

Never skied there--a gaping hole in my ski resume. Have a great time! Such a beautiful part of the world.

[seannx]

Originally Posted by buddyhu

While fear may not be a fitting response, I disagree with your conclusion. What we are seeing (big picture) has not been seen before.

He's right if we look far enough back in earth's history. Here's a link to an article that has a good discussion of the geological data. Please ignore anything that appears political or expresses concern about current warm weather years or global warming.

The content of the article is based around on scientific findings comparing present atmospheric carbon levels and planetary temperature readings to previous geological epochs.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/t...nt-exist-15938

A quote from the article in reference to Ohound's point...

The last time there was this much carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Earth's atmosphere, modern humans didn't exist. Megatoothed sharks prowled the oceans, the world's seas were up to 100 feet higher than they are today, and the global average surface temperature was up to 11°F warmer than it is now.

[Otterhound]

Originally Posted by seannx

He's right if we look far enough back in earth's history. Here's a link to an article that has a good discussion of the geological data. Please ignore anything that appears political or expresses concern about current warm weather years or global warming.

The content of the article is based around on scientific findings comparing present atmospheric carbon levels and planetary temperature readings to previous geological epochs.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/t...nt-exist-15938

A quote from the article in reference to Ohound's point...

Are you familiar with the Vostok ice core samples and what they show ?
Higher C02 levels tend to lag behind temperature spikes by about 800 years . Cycles tend to run in roughly 110,000 year patterns .
There were no known human driven industrial eras in any of the previous cycles unless you know something new .

[XYRN]

44°F in MN today.
Warm, but not too much out of proportion with a normal "January thaw".

There's a lot of winter left.

[Otterhound]

Originally Posted by XYRN

44°F in MN today.
Warm, but not too much out of proportion with a normal "January thaw".

There's a lot of winter left.

I have lived through winters here that never got cold enough to halt my work and I have lived through winters that had me shut down for 3-4 months .
Some had snow and some did not .
The winter of '78 or '79 yielded nearly no snow but 3 weeks of 0 degree temps and high winds that brought 42" of ground frost .
I no longer use the Groundhog . I use my stuffed Wallaby to prognosticate the coming of spring . Her name was Rosie .
A "January thaw" is a typical part of most winters here also .
Last year , at this time , I was returning home to 30+ inches of snow . When I left Tennessee , there was 4" of snow on the ground and they were freaking out down there .

[seannx]

Originally Posted by Otterhound

Are you familiar with the Vostok ice core samples and what they show ?
Higher C02 levels tend to lag behind temperature spikes by about 800 years . Cycles tend to run in roughly 110,000 year patterns .
There were no known human driven industrial eras in any of the previous cycles unless you know something new .

I think the article demonstrates the value of considering the widest review of potentially relevant data, instead of relying on one source. YMMV

[LSemmens]

It's a nice cool 28 here today I'm happily sitting in shorts and T shirt with a fan on. Might even wander out to the garden to do a bit out there if it cools down a bit. Oh! did I mention that it was 28 C.

[Otterhound]

Originally Posted by seannx

I think the article demonstrates the value of considering the widest review of potentially relevant data, instead of relying on one source. YMMV

The article that you linked to cherry picks a single finding while ignoring the bulk and most relevant data .
So much for considering the widest review of potential data .
Don't believe me ? Read the results of the Vostok cores for yourself . Their data speaks for itself and does not need me .

[seannx]

Originally Posted by Otterhound

The article that you linked to cherry picks a single finding while ignoring the bulk and most relevant data .
So much for considering the widest review of potential data .
Don't believe me ? Read the results of the Vostok cores for yourself . Their data speaks for itself and does not need me .

You advanced the view that the observed higher temperatures have happened before. It's also been colder. I provided corroborating evidence from scientific research. Maybe it's not the data you like. Perhaps if you had been more specific in your reply to Rich, there would have been more context for your advice not to worry.

[fazool]

Originally Posted by Otterhound

I have lived through winters here that never got cold enough to halt my work and I have lived through winters that had me shut down for 3-4 months .
Some had snow and some did not .
The winter of '78 or '79 yielded nearly no snow but 3 weeks of 0 degree temps and high winds that brought 42" of ground frost .
I no longer use the Groundhog . I use my stuffed Wallaby to prognosticate the coming of spring . Her name was Rosie .
A "January thaw" is a typical part of most winters here also .
Last year , at this time , I was returning home to 30+ inches of snow . When I left Tennessee , there was 4" of snow on the ground and they were freaking out down there .

Buffalo is known for it's chaotic weather. I vividly remember the "big one" - the Blizzard of '77 that put us on the worldwide stage for snow. I remembering schools being closed two weeks in a row. I also lived through the blizzard of 85, the ice storms of 75 and 05, the freak thanksgiving storm of 2001, the October storm of 06 (on the global stage again) and Snowvember breaking every Buffalo record with 6 feet in three days on houses.

I've seen it all.

But I've also seen our local ski resorts close up and the winters-that-werent.

There are two things I've noticed from living in this weather for half a century:

1) the snow season is starting later and later and running shorter and shorter - as a kid, there was a 95% chance of a white christmas. that has gone down to probably 25% chance now.

2) the weather is much much more chaotic - the bizarro storms are in october and november etc.

[seannx]

Originally Posted by fazool

Buffalo is known for it's chaotic weather. I vividly remember the "big one" - the Blizzard of '77 that put us on the worldwide stage for snow. I remembering schools being closed two weeks in a row. I also lived through the blizzard of 85, the ice storms of 75 and 05, the freak thanksgiving storm of 2001, the October storm of 06 (on the global stage again) and Snowvember breaking every Buffalo record with 6 feet in three days on houses.

I've seen it all.

But I've also seen our local ski resorts close up and the winters-that-werent.

There are two things I've noticed from living in this weather for half a century:

1) the snow season is starting later and later and running shorter and shorter - as a kid, there was a 95% chance of a white christmas. that has gone down to probably 25% chance now.

2) the weather is much much more chaotic - the bizarro storms are in october and november etc.

Your observations agree with National Weather Service records going back to 1880.

[Silurian]

Originally Posted by Otterhound

Read the results of the Vostok cores for yourself . Their data speaks for itself and does not need me .

Data never 'speaks for itself', it requires analysis. From what I can determine the bulk of that analysis does nothing to contradict the near consensus of most of the expert opinion in this field.

[Blueser100]

Last night and most of yesterday was a constant torrent. Garage and backyard flooded again but we are drying out. Lots of coastal flooding and it's kayak time in many neighborhood streets in So Cal.

[Otterhound]

Originally Posted by seannx

You advanced the view that the observed higher temperatures have happened before. It's also been colder. I provided corroborating evidence from scientific research. Maybe it's not the data you like. Perhaps if you had been more specific in your reply to Rich, there would have been more context for your advice not to worry.

My issue is not based on what is included .
It is based on what is left out .
No position of integrity can simply exclude that which excludes a differing outcome . That is anything but scientific or honest .
Using your logic , it can just as easily say that there is evidence of a relationship between higher temperatures and low CO2 levels .
My advice is to not worry is based on my experience and common sense . Now , that is context .
I have never been a Henny Penny or Chicken Little type . I doubt that will change .