So, who do we talk about 25, 50, 100 years from now?

[oldane]

I believe that more achtops than flattops will survive. That's due to the construction priciples of the respective types of guitars.

A flattop doesn't have the string pulling forces balanced out - we have to rely on the bracing to hold everything in place. But eventually it will die because of the string pull. Classical guitars are generally considered usable for 20-40 years.

An archtop has string pull which tends to compress the top and body, but at the same time the downward force of the string loaded bridge on the arched top counteracts that compressing force. Ideally, the two forces balance out each other. That's why violins - which are constructed to the same principles as archtops at least as far as the string forces go - survives and can be played for centuries on end. The same should apply to well made archtops. One archtop maker says on his web site that his aim is to have his instruments played 400 years from now. It sounds somewhat pompous, but in fact he has a point.

Thats said, many archtops are badly made and won't make it in the long run. And of course abused instruments won't make it either.

[SpruceTop]

Martin, Taylor, and Gibson will still be around as the mainstream heavy-hitters. In the professional more-specialized-maker mix will be Takamine and RainSong. In the value lines that offer professionally-useful builds, probably Blueridge will survive.

Regards,

SpruceTop

[laocmo]

100 years from now a cheap electronic guitar will be available that has built into it sufficient electronics and memory that will enable the player to call up the exact sound of a vintage 1940 D-28 or the scream of Jimi's 1965 Fender Strat. Musical sounds synthesizing will be a perfected science. Even cheap fiddles will be available that will have the sound of the best Stradivarius ever made and cheap Yamaha keyboards will rival the best concert grand pianos. I think real guitars by today’s makers will be as novel an item as a real 1860 Colt black powder revolver. They will also probably be as expensive to collect. And just like the Colts, there will be reasonably priced replicas available for the purists and re-enactors.